Posted on 06/15/2020 3:55:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.
The tests are finding large numbers of people in the U.S. who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.
"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.
And the revised estimates support an early prediction by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force. In an editorial published in late March in The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci and colleagues wrote that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 "may be considerably less than 1%."
But even a virus with a fatality rate less than 1% presents a formidable threat, Rivers says. "That is many times more deadly than seasonal influenza," she says.
The new evidence is coming from places such as Indiana, which completed the first phase of a massive testing effort early in May.
(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...
Preliminary results showed that the coronavirus had infected about 3% of the Indiana's population, or 188,000 people.
"That 188,000 people represented about 11 times more people than conventional selective testing had identified in the state to that point," Menachemi says.
And 45% of the infected people reported having no symptoms at all.
For Menachemi and his team, it was like finally getting a glimpse of the entire coronavirus iceberg, instead of just the part above the water.
And the data allowed them to calculate something called the infection fatality rate — the odds that an infected person will die. Previously, scientists had relied on what's known as the case fatality rate, which calculates the odds that someone who develops symptoms will die.
Indiana's infection fatality rate turned out to be about 0.58%, or roughly one death for every 172 people who got infected.
And the results in Indiana are similar to those suggested by antibody studies in several other areas. In New York, for example, an antibody study indicated the state has an infection fatality rate around 0.5%.
Studies in Florida and California have suggested even lower fatality rates, but the results are less certain, Rivers says.
"They may have enrolled people who are more likely to have been infected than would be ideal," she says, which would lead to an overestimate of infections and an underestimate of the infection fatality rate.
An antibody study in Santa Clara County, Calif., used Facebook ads to find participants — a tactic unlikely to attract a random sample. Also antibody studies become less accurate when conducted in areas where the prevalence of infections is low.
I wonder if this is because the virus, at least in Indiana, may have mutated to a less deadly form.
Some epidemiologist should take this new information on the IFR rate, couple it with the various estimates of the R0 rate with and without distancing, and compare that to the initial spread data.
Boy. Thank God we didn’t shut down the country and wreck the economy and add 6 trillion debt :)
I think the economy will come back much more quickly than the dour estimates (10 year nonsense).
But it cost us a lot to lock down over something that kills 1 in app. 170 people, and if you protect the elderly, probably even less.
Someone or more than one in my family must have had it without knowing. Because I still know no one who has had it and the folks I know don’t know anybody who has had it.
500 or more people. Some of us must have had it. Just didn’t get sick
I’m surprised NPR published this.
Now I can cite this to my NPR loving co-workers. Thank you for posting.
“CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1.”
This is the US 2018-2019 Flu statistics. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.
And not one store is shuttered or people confined to their homes. Imagine how many took flu shots.
Testing positive despite being asymptomatic should have clued in 99% of readers.
Translation: we have been lied to for the sake of removing Trump and imposing draconian fiats to insure the left never loses.
Testing positive despite being asymptomatic should have clued in 99% of readers.
Not those with a political agenda to take President Trump out of the November election.
Isn’t the CDC at .28?
I know at least 2 people who got deathly ill in late Jan early Feb ....before corona virus got fashionable...who may have had it but never got tested. There’s probably tens of thousands like that.
bkmk
I have two coworkers who had all of the symptoms back in Decmember/January. Right down to the loss of smell.
The whole GREAT Crisis was trumpetted by NPR and the other leftist mouthpieces.
Maybe they figure that they best ‘change their tune’ before it becomes obvious how wrong they were.
.
Well it’s actually killing 1 person out of 170 infected and we really do not know how many of those have symptoms. But we do know that up until very recently the testing was only allowed for people that had close contact or had symptoms.....ioews the cfr and the ifr both could be much lower.
I rather enjoy that the included in this story is Hopkins data that call BS on 5% death rate (yes that’s right exdemom this is aimed right at you). I suppose the Fearpers will insist on diffeeent references than NEJM the beloved JHU and their leader Fauci
Call me when you experts have a clue
My oldest son was one of the two. He still has no sense of taste.
So it took them this long to figure out what many people here in another conservative websites have realized since day one. If it was so deadly, we would have seen massive numbers of retail workers and people get infected from my being the grocery stores and big box stores back in March when everybody panicked. We never saw any of that.
gas_dr wrote:
“I rather enjoy that the included in this story is Hopkins data that call BS on 5% death rate (yes that’s right exdemom this is aimed right at you). I suppose the Fearpers will insist on diffeeent references than NEJM the beloved JHU and their leader Fauci.”
Thanks for calling out that 5% rate as being bogus !
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