Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka discusses a report in November 2019 in Anchorage, Alaska. Tshibaka, a Republican, announced a run for US Senate on Monday.
Posted on 04/08/2021 1:02:55 PM PDT by cotton1706
The Murkowski strategy assumes she can find enough votes to come in second and that enough Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents will do what they’ve done before — have her back, this time, by listing her as their second choice.
The problem is, however, Lisa Murkowski is wildly disliked.
snip
Given that the electorate regularly describes itself as anywhere from 29 percent to 32 percent ‘Democrat,’ which includes some independents who just don’t register as Democrats, it will be very hard for Lisa to garner enough votes to come in second behind the preferred Republican, who will likely receive 40 percent of the vote.
So, let’s keep it simple: 40 percent for Kelly Tshibaka, 33 percent (maybe slightly more or less) for a well-funded Democrat and 6 percent for an AIP or Libertarian type coming in fourth. That leaves only 21 percent or so of the vote Lisa.
That puts her in third, with most of her second-choice vote going to the Democrat, giving them a real path to the 50 percent threshold against a very right-wing and outside the mainstream Kelly Tshibaka.
The Murkowski people will try to keep a strong Democrat out, but they will fail. They are just too cute, by half. They may have just given the Democratic party a way back.
(Excerpt) Read more at anchoragepress.com ...
I think this piece is correct. I think Murkowski wants to come in second, which won't happen.
Ranked-choice was supposed to save her, but it may just eliminate her.
Murkowski’s brand of politics plays well in 2016 and 2010, but with the Trump era in play...she’s not even that appealing to half the Democrats in Alaska. Count in her age...65 next year for the primary period, and I think she’s fairly finished in politics.
She ran as a ‘sore loser’ independent or something and won. I guess this new system takes it away if she finishes 3rd. Still the democrat voter could vote for her, right?
She’s better looking than Murky, too.
She strikes me as being in the same intellectual league as Patty Murray.
According to the youtuber channel, The World According to Briggs, Alaska is losing a lot of California idiots that relocated there. I do not know how he determined that but most of his videos seem to be pretty correct.
Murky might should retire to Arizona.
Is this “Ranked Choice” voting called a “Jungle Primary”?
>>She’s better looking than Murky, too.<<
That is like being the best yodeler in Harlem.
LOL, I guess there’s nothing wrong with your eyesight. 8>)
Wouldn’t surprise me if Trump’s crew had some guy lined up as the fake environmentalist/Democrat to ensure Murkowski gets no more than 15-percent of the vote in a three-way race.
A jungle primary is different. There everybody is pitted against each other and the top two then run against each other in the general.
With ranked-choice, as I understand it, there are a bunch of people in the primary and the top four people then go on to the general. Then in the general, you vote for your choices of first, second, etc. And whoever gets to 50% first wins.
It’s convoluted and stupid, so naturally the Ruling Oligarchs are for it.
Thanks, I think I understand. I will read up on it.
Ranked choice voting means ranked choice voting software.
Murky will win one way or the other.
Why RCV is in HR1.
Tell them 2 years will be added to all sentences in those bills for each protest.
We will see..
Not going to REMOTELY claim I know Alaska politics at all... She’s been able to ride her Dad’s name before and survive.
Has she burned enough bridges on both sides to not survive in a ranked election, I don’t know. Guess we will find out.
Personally I hope so, but my hope isn’t going to make it so.
She looks older than 65.
A jungle primary is different.
When the law was signed, I was thinking this law might trick some Dims into voting for a Dim, and selecting Murkowski as second second choice. Many R’s might also vote for the conservative, while selecting Murkowski second. Lisa could be left with a 50%+ majority of 2nd choice votes, but still finish 3rd. I’m not sure just how accurate this piece is. The Murkowski family still carries a lot of swing in AK, so she will get plenty of R first choice votes. This article paints Kelly Tshibaka as “very right-wing and outside the mainstream”, which sounds like typical leftist drivel. I suspect a lot of GOP Murkowski voters will still vote R as second choice.
i wonder what the hot to crazy numbers are on this one.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.