Posted on 09/05/2023 11:51:48 AM PDT by Mariner
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s planned meeting with Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok, as revealed by US intelligence, gives us a new insight into Russia’s strategy in Ukraine as well as a warning of wider dangers for the world.
As Kyiv’s offensive wears on into its fourth month, with only limited success and a few Russian counter attacks, it is becoming clear that Moscow’s plan may be to allow Ukraine to exhaust its men, tanks, shells and missiles against the Surovikin Line’s hardest edge. The thinking could be that, once Ukraine’s Western equipped and trained manoeuvre forces have been ground down, Russia will then be able to launch its own major offensive, perhaps as early as January.
After almost two years of fighting that has been compared more to the First World War than the Second, this plan is reminiscent of the Germans’ Kaiserschlacht, the spring offensive which began in March 1918 and drove the allies back, seizing more territory than had been taken by either side in the preceding four years of war. This was achieved by the Germans bleeding the enemy dry while building massive reserves of men and munitions behind the lines, ready to unleash a devastating assault not unlike what the British aimed for, but failed to achieve, during the Battle of the Somme in 1916.
The problem for Putin is that, as he seeks to grind down Ukrainian forces, he is expending vast quantities of ammunition, especially artillery shells and ballistic missiles, and very large numbers of tanks. While Russia has a greater volume of military industrial production than much of the West, and continues to mobilise tens of thousands of men each quarter on a rolling basis, its core supplies remain inadequate for the level of expenditure required for a major new offensive.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
But the are emerging fears of a new Russian offensive.
“The German offensive in 1918 petered out from exhaustion and lack of supplies. We cannot count on a similar fate overcoming Putin’s next move: it is questionable whether Ukraine will have the resources to hold the Russians back, let alone launch their own version of the Hundred Days Offensive which allowed the Allies, with newly arrived American forces, to drive the Germans back into their homeland.”
Some speculate that the “Spanish” Flu really did a number on the Germans.
LOL
>> There’s little, if any talk of a Ukrainian victory these days.
‘Cept here on FR, in the fever swamp of a Zeeperthread. 😏
Perhaps a new strategy would be for NATO troops to arrive and drive the Russians back into their homeland. NATO troops would of course include American soldiers.
“While Russia has a greater volume of military industrial production than much of the West, ...”
These guys are finally admitting what has been obvious for a year: the West has de-industrialized and no longer has the industrial base capable of a sustained peer war.
Time to retire the American Empire miitary concept, and move to plan B.
And most of our own ammo and war supplies which we have been pouring down the Ukraine hole. And remember, Biden invited the Russians to invade Ukraiine in the first place as if he wanted to degrade our own ability to fight a war, say, over Taiwan..
That statement shows that article is nonsense. No actual analysis shows that the Russian defense industry has more production capacity than the USA and the other nations supporting Ukraine.
In addition, Russia needs to smuggle in most of the integrated circuits used in its modern weapons. Even the motors in their drones are imported, some illegally from western suppliers.
More fiction from somebody trying to get attention.
Influenza in the spring of 1918 severely weakened the German army and especially affected the troops that were transferred from the Eastern front. The Spanish Flu also weakened President Wilson at the Versailles peace conference resulting in the terrible treaty pushed by the French and British that made WW II inevitable.
“Perhaps a new strategy would be for NATO troops to arrive and drive the Russians back into their homeland. NATO troops would of course include American soldiers.”
There is no scenario under which that would occur.
You are probably correct but with President Biden/Obama who knows?
Kim’s artillery stocks are 50 years old. They will likely kill more Russians from exploding barrels than Ukrainians.
The only emerging fears are you own. The Russian are out of available manpower in the south. Their only gains in the east are a few blocks of Marinka which they have been trying to take since the beginning of the war.
“No actual analysis shows that the Russian defense industry has more production capacity than the USA and the other nations supporting Ukraine.”
Better tell NATO. I guess they are deluded by Russian propaganda.
Richard Kemp is a stooge for Perfidious Albion.
Article: “sinister”...
Objective journalism at its best...lol.
Yet another “Russia is running out of men/material” article.
"Ukraine cannot prevail against Russian Spring offensive"’ | Colonel Richard Kemp interview, Telegraph, Feb 17, 2023
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5uJHqlJ7S0
55 minute long interview.
As if there could be a “Sinister plan for defeat”?
You or I may may or may not favor Russia but no country enters a war without a plan for victory.
I get so tired of connotatively loaded language.
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