The Memo: Haley gets good news as she looks to upset Trump in New Hampshire

The Hill ^ | 12/23/23 6:00 AM ET | NIALL STANAGE

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Nikki Haley is on the rise, looking for an upset that could derail former President Trump’s path to the Republican presidential nomination.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the New Hampshire primary is her best— and perhaps only — chance.

Haley’s advance in the Granite State has been striking.

A new American Research Group (ARG) poll released Thursday put Haley within 4 points of Trump in New Hampshire — a jaw-dropping result given that Trump has a lead of about 50 points in national polls. 

The ARG poll showed Trump with 33 percent support in New Hampshire and Haley at 29 percent, with the rest of the field well behind.

Regardless of whether the Granite State primary is really that close, Haley’s move up is real.

Another poll in recent days, from Saint Anselm College, showed Haley at 30 percent support, double the backing she drew in a survey from the same organization in September. The Saint Anselm poll showed Haley behind Trump by 14 points.

Political observers in New Hampshire are impressed by Haley’s rise even as they are circumspect about just how far it will take her.

[Machavelli]

These east coast states are liberal cesspools. We really should acknowledge our divided country and make if official. We in fly-over country have very little in common with the LIBTARDS.

[matt04]

Haha.

[Gaffer]

So. ARG was paid huge sums of money to twist its poll, courtesy of the DNC. Nonsense.

[Gaffer]

No internals on sampling size, voter status, weighting or other classical adjustments. Only this, “At the last count, according to the New Hampshire Bulletin, there were about 344,000 undeclared voters, compared to about 270,000 Republicans and approximately 265,000 Democrats.”

Even it there were enough of those 334,000 undeclared voters ready to jump for Haley it spells disaster for Biden, IMO.

[escapefromboston]

I’d rather Trump lose than Haley become president.

[dforest]

Who says GOP won’t cheat just like RATs?

Not hard to notice that all at once Nikki is on the rise. LOL

Nobody in my orb likes or even mentions this woman. She would lose far worse than McCain.

[personalaccts]

Remember NH is an open primary and democrats can vote for Haley

[tennmountainman]

It will a disaster for the GOP getting voters out on Election Day.

[StAnDeliver]

From the other thread...

ARG is one of the most homely polling orgs.

Let's just start with this. Mating GOP LV with Undeclared is puerile polling garbage. It's a stunt, not a clever one. To enlighten you guys -- Undeclared is a registration option in NH. You can, as Undeclared, choose either presidential primary ballot but not both.

That said, including Undeclared in polling as though they are 1:1 with a GOP LV in likelihood of choosing an NH GOP presidential primary ballot or even voting at all, is untenable. Any conclusion is strictly 'Fruit of the poisonous tree'.

To demonstrate, ARG undercut their clickbait headlines once you dig into their internals, starting with "Preference By Party Registration" 39-27...

After applying their own +/-4 MoE, this could be as much as a 43-23 lead for President Trump, which then brings it inline with Anselm -- traditionally the soundest NH polling, large samples, Fox usually covers NH from their campus, etc. -- and other polls.

[StAnDeliver]

Also this mick ---------r at The Shill is one of Obama's butt buddies. Wrote one of the first post-election f@giographies:

[38special]

It doesn’t matter who the GOP runs, the fix is already in.

[StAnDeliver]

"Remember NH is an open primary and democrats can vote for Haley"

Yes but traditionally this does not happen as much as true 'open' primary states because in NH (and a few other states do this too) a Democrat who chooses a Republican primary ballot becomes registered to the Republican Party.

Additionally, Biden unwisely choose to stay off the ballot in NH in deference to the Dems gerrymandering their own primary order, now there is a fairly serious effort to write him in. That alone will keep crossovers under previous election years.

[Redleg Duke]

That Rino in Heels isn’t going to get my vote!

[thegagline]

Remember NH is an open primary and democrats can vote for Haley

False.

The primary isn’t open. Rather, if you are a registered Democrat, you can only vote in the Democrat primary. If you are unaffiliated, you can vote in either the Republican or Democrat primaries.

[Vigilanteman]

New Hampshire allows independents to vote in EITHER primary. Most voters in New Hampshire claim to be independents even when they are not.

IOW, their results mean jack.

[Article10]

Yup... the uniparty owns NH since Senators Bob Smith went off the reservation.

Open primaries, college kids getting pre printed ballots, same day registrations etc.. its all coordinated by the uniparty leaders. It really sucks.

Trump is screwed in NH.

[Article10]

Yup, correct.

I’ve watched tree hugging communists change their party affiliation to vote in a Republican primary, then switch back to being independent. Laughing the whole time.. All legal here in New Hampshire. The uniparty loves the game.