ABORTION 2.0

Powerlineblog ^ | Apr 10, 2024 | John Hinderaker

[lasereye]

The Biden re-election campaign should be dead in the water. Inflation is surging again, wokeness is deeply unpopular with most Americans, bills are beginning to come due for the Left’s “green” initiatives, and, most of all, Biden himself is so far gone in dementia as to be dysfunctional. How can he possibly win in November?

By running on abortion. We saw it in many areas of the country in 2022. What should have been a red wave petered out, as the Democrats grabbed the lifeline that Dobbs gave them and often rode it to victory. Can it happen again in 2024? Why not?

In many areas of the country, including Minnesota, where I live, the most popular thing a politician can stand for is unrestricted (and preferably government-funded) abortion, up to and including the moment of birth. The Democrats have successfully sold the idea that they aren’t necessarily in favor of abortions, but the right to get abortions is the civil rights issue of our era. Just because it’s dumb doesn’t mean it can’t work.

The Democrats know they have an electoral gold mine in abortion. This is what the New York Times had to say in this morning’s email:

No American president has done as much to restrict abortion as Donald Trump. When he was running in 2016, he promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and his three nominees helped do precisely that in the 2022 Dobbs decision.

That is the Democrats’ line. Trump himself is a moderate on the issue, and Dobbs didn’t restrict abortion, it merely returned the issue to the states, where it belongs and where it always was until the bizarre Roe decision. But there is no room for nuance on this topic. Pro-abortion voters are fanatical and single-issue.

Twenty-one states have since enacted tight restrictions. Yesterday, Arizona’s highest court reinstated an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions.

These laws have proven to be unpopular. When abortion access has appeared on the ballot since 2022, it has consistently won, even in red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. A Wall Street Journal poll last month found that abortion stood out from immigration, inflation and foreign wars as the only major issue on which most voters trusted President Biden more than Trump.

The Times is right. Abortion has become electoral poison for Republicans. It is the only winning issue for Democrats, and they have no choice but to play it to the hilt.

All of this helps explains why Trump has tried to reduce his vulnerability on the issue — and why the Biden campaign is already running advertisements about abortion. “Donald Trump did this,” reads the onscreen text at the end of an ad released this week. It focuses on a Texas woman who nearly died during a miscarriage after a hospital refused to treat her.

This is the ad:

Willow's Box

I don’t understand the alleged medical history. Obviously this woman could and would be treated if she suffered a miscarriage. But if you don’t think this ad, and many more like it to come, are devastating to Republicans, you are delusional.

The Times goes on to point out that Gallup has found a ten-point swing in favor of abortion since Dobbs. The irony is that a large majority of voters don’t support the Democrats’ position of unrestricted abortion up to the moment of birth (and in some cases, as in Minnesota, beyond). But they don’t hate Democrats for being extreme, they hate Republicans for restricting “choice.”

If you are looking for optimism, the Times offers this:

In the 2022 midterms, several high-profile Democratic candidates highlighted their Republican opponents’ role in restricting abortion access. Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O’Rourke in Texas were among them. So was Nan Whaley, the Democratic candidate for governor in Ohio. “We think it is the issue,” Whaley said.

It wasn’t. These candidates all lost by substantial margins. Nationwide, not a single Republican governor or senator has lost a re-election bid since the Dobbs decision. In House elections, the decision may have played a decisive role in a small number of races.

So abortion wasn’t enough to elect lousy candidates in red states. But in 2022, we saw what it could do in a purplish (not deep blue as some mistakenly think) state like Minnesota: it completely changed the election dynamic.

Arizona is another purple state. The most recent development on the abortion front is that Arizona’s Supreme Court issued a decision that resurrected a 160-year-old law, dating to when Arizona was a territory, that banned nearly all abortions. The Court somehow found that the old law takes precedence over the moderate statute that Arizona enacted in 2022.

I haven’t read that decision, but offhand I have no idea how a 160-year-old territorial law could possibly override an inconsistent law passed two years ago. That would seem to violate basic legal principles. In any event, if its Supreme Court somehow makes Arizona a no-abortion state, there is zero chance that Trump will carry Arizona in November. None.

Brace yourselves: the Democrats have an enormous amount of money to spend, and it is going to be all abortion, all the time, from now until November.

[lasereye]

There are two ways for Republican candidates to respond to the Dem attack ads on abortion in purple states and Congressional districts (and also Trump). The correct way is to point out that all Dobbs did was return the issue to the individual states where it belongs, and then pivot to the economy and the border. But the Republican will need lots of money to counter the Democrat attack ads, because the Dems have boatloads of money. There's all these delusional people who think campaign spending doesn't do anything.

The wrong way of responding is to accuse the Dems of being extreme on the issue, such as supporting late-term abortions. That'll fail in just about every case. First of all in most cases their Dem opponent won't actually say they're for late-term abortions. Biden doesn't say that and he never will.

Also there's all these middle of the road voters who think "choice" is what's important. By actually trying to debate the abortion issue, the Republican would fall right into the trap of being portrayed as "anti-choice". Even if their Dem opponent openly supports late term abortions, the Republican should not spend any ad dollars on that. They could bring it up in speeches or interviews, but then immediately pivot to the economy and border.

[Lod881019]

If they make it about abortion and that’s it. You simply make it about Laken Riley and Joes apology to the killer 24/7 problem solved

[italianquaker]

President Trump shut down that nonsense already

[Beowulf9]

Good points. I just hope ‘they’ in the Republican party see it, because it surely is a trap laid a-coming.

[moonhawk]

Which “nonsense”?

[lasereye]

I think taking the position that Dobbs was correctly decided is the best choice for Republicans, as long as they make clear what Dobbs actually did, i.e. it just permitted the people to decide the issue and nothing else. If that’s clearly explained I think a majority could be convinced that Dobbs was right. A Republican that tries to avoid saying anything about Dobbs or attacks it will not help themselves imo.

[Theophilus]

If John Hinderaker thinks we can't beat them, then he should join them and enshrine child sacrifice as a constitutional right. Then he can get back to lowering the top marginal tax rate or something.

I believe the day is coming and not far off, where women will be forced into sterilization and abortion to save the God da*ned climate. That is unless they are completely sexually neglected because the sodomites are too busy gang raping the dwindling male population.

[lowbridge]

“By running on abortion. We saw it in many areas of the country in 2022. What should have been a red wave petered out”

I don’t buy this argument that abortion was a winning issue for the democrats. The reason why the red wave petered out in 2022 was due to the democrats voter fraud.

[hillarys cankles]

I don’t buy this argument that abortion was a winning issue for the democrats. The reason why the red wave petered out in 2022 was due to the democrats voter fraud.

---

Of course you don’t buy it.......................

Im just resigned to the fact that the rights gonna shoot themselves in the foot again. And again, and again, and again,...............

[LastDayz]

“Im just resigned to the fact that the rights gonna shoot themselves in the foot again.”

More like worshipping the gravy train they’re riding.

[lasereye]

Let me ask you this: Can someone be elected Governor of NY on a promise to sign a law that bans all abortions?

[wiseprince]

How to win the debate:

I am calling on Govenor Hobbs to immediately convene a Special Session to work with the legislature to solve this and put the law in line the expectations of Arizonans. It’s patently obvious what Arizonans are looking for and the solution can be passed in a week or two. I hope I’m wrong but Im afraid the Govenor will have the same response she has had with immigration and that is to do nothing because she thinks, wrongly, that it will help Joe Biden. Govenor Hobbs needs to do the right thing here and she needs to do it quickly. This is ultimately a great reminder as to why this needs to be done at the state level. If the Govenor does the right thing we can have this fixed inside of two weeks instead of the 20 years we would have to wait for a solutions coming out of Washington. Call The Govenor now to ensure she is prepared to call a special session immediately Arizonans can’t wait!

[Olog-hai]

The Uniparty voter fraud, to be exact.

[mbrfl]

>>”I haven’t read that decision, but offhand I have no idea how a 160-year-old territorial law could possibly override an inconsistent law passed two years ago. That would seem to violate basic legal principles. In any event, if its Supreme Court somehow makes Arizona a no-abortion state, there is zero chance that Trump will carry Arizona in November. None.”

Makes me wonder if that was what the Arizona Supreme Court had in mind when they made their decision.

[daniel1212]

the premise behind the typical justificatory arguments for abortion (“respecting individual autonomy and the right to make decisions about one's own body,” “negative consequences on public health,” “the freedom to choose what's best for them”) is that the unborn at any time of abortion is not a human person, even though it will be rather quickly very manifest to be one indeed.

Even if someone you invited into your car or house secretly brings a child with them without your consent, then you simply do not have the right to exterminate that life, which is not a lethal threat to you. In some states, you cannot even shoot suspected burglars unless they manifestly endanger lives, much less a lost vulnerable child who finds a way into your house since you left the door open.

And even more unjustifiable is to kill a child resulting from your choice to engage in a behavior which most naturally produces offspring.

And 98% of abortions are due to reasons other than rape, incest:

And a study of approx. 64,000 out of 3,664,000 births in 2021 found that only 1.7% may be due to ectopic pregnancies, and with a total of approx 4% being due to health reasons:

"Risk to the woman’s life or a major bodily function: 0.2%[6] Other physical health concerns: 2.5%[7] Abnormality in the unborn baby: 1.3%[8] - Fact Sheet: Reasons for Abortion - Lozier Institute (and accommodating doctors can use "Other physical health concerns" liberally).

So in order to justify the “pro-choice” position - which is denying the subject of extermination any choice in the matter, and is contrary to the normal course of nature - then one must deny that what is inside the womb is a human person (unless pro-choice promoters are willing to be classed as murderers, which they are).

And thus the pro anti-infant choice promoter must justify their basis for determining that.

Will it be the ability to function on its own, though it rather shortly will be able to? If so, then you had best not be laid up for a while if needing life-sustaining support.

And of course, most aged in nursing homes could thus be turned into sources of protein.

Will it be based upon location, meaning outside the womb killing the infant would be murder, but before that it is open game?

Or will the unborn human life be valued at least as much as protected migratory birds are, for due to the procreating nature of the egg of a protected migratory bird and the value placed upon it, then crushing the life of such is outlawed.

The fact is that, as a 1.6 birth rate testifies, children overall are increasingly not desired nor seen as needed, or at least not if they require much sacrifice, while typically spoiling the one or maybe two children parents have on average, and with children being often replaced by pets, which are seen as more worthy of care and cost.

Meanwhile, fornication costs the country greatly.

[daniel1212]

I don’t buy this argument that abortion was a winning issue for the democrats. The reason why the red wave petered out in 2022 was due to the democrats voter fraud.

Actually, it is partly because as one FReeper argued here, many in the GOP see opposing abortion on demand as not being a "winnable political position." The preborn were not consulted,

However, the arguments for abortion on demand, for any reason, esp. up to birth, are what are rationally unwinnable but the GOP seems intent on being Democrat light versus taking the fight to be Left. Thus, they do not even try to court immigrants, like as showing the short term gain, long term loss of the Democrat system.

[spincaster]

It is hard to believe that the country would vote our Republic away so they can kill babies. Abortion shouldn’t even be an issue in a God fearing nation. The Democrats are totally mindless.

[SisterK]

Governor Hobbs do the right thing?
The right thing in who’s eyes?
The girls can go to New Mexico or California to have their babies killed.

[SisterK]

thank you

[wiseprince]

“The right thing in whose eyes?”.

That’s a feature of the messaging. It doesn’t matter (everyon fills it in). This is not Trump’s issue to fix but there is a way to get people on your side without taking a position. Make no mistake this is all politics. We just have to play the game better.