Skip to comments.
4,000 Quarantined in Beijing as Suspected SARS Cases Climb
New York Times ^
| 4/25/2003
| Erik Eckolm
Posted on 04/25/2003 7:40:41 AM PDT by ex-Texan
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, 141-149 last
To: EternalHope
Since SARS is related to a common cold virus, it is reasonable to hope it will show the same strong seasonality that the common cold shows. If so, we will get some help from nature, starting now. The real test will come in November. I've seen that sentiment expressed by others, including some experts, but I don't see how it's based in reality. One of the worst outbreaks is in Singapore, and it's practically on the equator.
To: Dog Gone
I've seen that sentiment expressed by others, including some experts, but I don't see how it's based in reality. One of the worst outbreaks is in Singapore, and it's practically on the equator. Apparently the seasonal pattern of colds has never been fully explained. Colds show a seasonal pattern in places like Singapore, just like in Seattle.
Since SARS is related to a cold virus, we can hope it will show the same pattern. Only time will tell.
If it DOES show a seasonal pattern, perhaps we will have a fast, reliable, and cheap diagnostic test by the time the next cold season starts. That would make it much easier to isolate the people who have it.
142
posted on
04/26/2003 9:55:09 AM PDT
by
EternalHope
(Boycott everything French forever.)
To: riri
The company I am talking about is BIOPharma out of Oregon. They are marketing the antisense drugs. You know, I will have to decide between buying land in a very remote part of the world and buying stock in BIOPharma or Gen whatever.
143
posted on
04/26/2003 11:31:43 AM PDT
by
TaxRelief
(Get rich or stay safe? Get rich or stay safe? Hmm...)
To: adam_az
Well, they used to. Their economic reforms a coupla years ago privatized the health care system.
I was reading that the cost for health care is around $250 but most people make $300/year in rural areas. Therefore, they keep walking around with the disease.
I think that Europe, Canada and the US won't be too badly effected. I think the Chinese and perhaps other people might have huge death tolls due to non-existant health care.
Just wanted to give you a heads up! :-D
144
posted on
04/26/2003 6:27:26 PM PDT
by
Mr. Morals
(Long live a free Iraqi people!)
To: aristeides
Mutation may make it very difficult or impossible to develop a vaccine, but that still leaves the possibility of an antiviral:There should be no suprise in this: it is just a highly prolific cold virus.
145
posted on
04/26/2003 6:36:00 PM PDT
by
Petronski
(I'm not always cranky.)
Comment #146 Removed by Moderator
To: HARD ATTACK 51
Maybe it was a seniors'Karaoke Club that they closed!(gave Gramma the hook while she was singing Tennesee Waltz)
To: Dog Gone
China has the means to combat the spread of SARS
Tjhey have the neighbour-committees that can be activated to monitor their own neighbourhoods. eg to check every member of their neighbourhood for SARS and report to the HQ
The Govt can also mobilize the PEOPLES-MILITIA to help to screen and quarantine the suspected cases China can mobilize up to 500 million militia-members to help out
To: ex-Texan; Smogger; Diogenesis; cake_crumb; LurkingSince'98; Rain-maker; aristeides; Mitchell
My analysis says the SARS death rate is much higher than widely reported.
I believe the various areas differ for two main reasons:
- Some areas have better/worse treatement and life-support facilities.
- Some countries choose to report only their more SERIOUS cases as SARS.
SARS Mortality Rates Based on World Health Organization data (Revised: 4/27am) |
Area |
Recoveries to date |
Deaths to date |
Recent** Death Rate |
|
Active Cases still in Danger |
Projected Future Deaths |
Projected Final Mortality |
Hong Kong |
632 |
121 |
12.9% |
|
774 |
100 |
14.5% |
Singapore |
126 |
21 |
16.1% |
|
51 |
8 |
14.8% |
China |
1285 |
122 |
28.2% |
|
1346 |
380 |
18.2% |
Canada |
77 |
18 |
20.7% |
|
47 |
10 |
19.5% |
World-wide |
2239 |
293 |
18.5% |
|
2304 |
426 |
14.9% |
** ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days) |
Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger |
Date |
Hong Kong |
Singapore |
China |
Canada |
World-wide |
Apr 19 |
914 |
61 |
307 |
66 |
1616 |
Apr 20 |
893 |
64 |
497 |
66 |
1694 |
Apr 21 (est.) |
872 |
66 |
686 |
66 |
1771 |
Apr 22 |
874 |
60 |
708 |
61 |
1783 |
Apr 23 |
831 |
58 |
968 |
58 |
2005 |
Apr 24 |
812 |
55 |
1058 |
58 |
2059 |
Apr 25 |
781 |
50 |
1209 |
51 |
2169 |
Apr 26 |
774 |
51 |
1346 |
47 |
2304 |
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) |
My observations:
- Hong Kong 'might' be getting a handle on their problem.
- It's average new cases per day is smaller than cases resolved per day.
- It apparently has the best treatment rate.
- Singapore and Canada MAY be the close to controlling their active caseloads:
- Canada's higher death rate MAY be because more patients truly had SARS,
instead of something else like flu. - OR MAYBE Canada has poorer healthcare
- OR MAYBE Canada is ONLY reporting it's more-severe cases.
- China appears to be terribly out of control by every measure.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, 141-149 last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson