Slap da donkey!
Slap da donkey!
Posted on 05/06/2003 4:30:45 PM PDT by Timesink
Released: April 29, 2003
Gephardt Widens Iowa Caucus Lead, Kerry Second, Lieberman Slips to Third; 61% of Dems Say Bush Re-election Likely, According to New Zogby International Poll
Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt has widened his lead in a poll of likely voters in the January 2004 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus. The poll of 387 likely caucus voters was conducted by Zogby International on April 25 - 27, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 5.1%, and margins are higher in sub-groups.
Gephardt received the support of one-in four (25%), compared to 13% who said they would support Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman slipped to third place at 9%, joining the balance of Democratic presidential aspirants earning only single digits.
In January polling by Zogby International in Iowa, Gephardt enjoyed a slim lead, 19% - 17% over Lieberman, with Kerry in third place at 11%.
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Florida Senator Bob Graham made modest gains in the April polling. Dean earned 6% of the votes in April, compared to 2% in January, and Graham inched up from 0.3% to 0.8%. Three other candidates polled in January, including North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Colorado Senator Gary Hart, and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton, experienced erosion in their support.
Former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich announced their candidacy following Zogby's January polling in Iowa, and polled 1% and 3% respectively in April.
Nearly one in three (31%) likely caucus voters are not sure which candidate they'll choose next January. In January 2003 polling, 37% said they were not sure.
One in four (24%) likely Democratic caucus voters say it is very likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, and 37% said it is somewhat likely, a total of 61%. In January, 20% felt his re-election was very likely and four in ten (40%) said somewhat likely, a total of 60%.
Favorable/Unfavorable ratings are crucial to a candidate's ultimate success. Difficulties are expected when a candidate's unfavorable rating exceeds the favorable number. Equally important is a candidate's unfamiliarity rating, with both votes and money more difficult to gather for a candidate with a high "not familiar" rating.
|
Candidate
|
January 2003
|
April 2003
|
|
|
Fav/Unfav/Unfam %
|
Fav/Unfav/Unfam %
|
|
Gephardt |
70-10-17 |
67-16-15 |
|
Lieberman |
64-15-18 |
57-22-18 |
|
Kerry |
51-6-41 |
51-13-34 |
|
Hart |
36-37-23 |
31-43-24 |
|
Edwards |
29-6-64 |
25-10-63 |
|
Graham |
22-11-33 |
22-17-60 |
|
Dean |
13-4-82 |
22-8-69 |
|
Sharpton |
11-33-55 |
8-45-45 |
|
Mosley Braun |
Not included |
18-22-57 |
|
Kucinich |
Not included |
11-11-77 |
Even with a field of ten candidates, some Iowa caucus voters still want more. While nearly half (47%) said they are satisfied with the present field, just over four in ten (42%) said they wish other candidates were running. Eleven percent were not sure.
The Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus on January 19, 2004, is the first voter indication of a candidate's popularity in the nation. The Democratic Convention will be held in late July in Boston.
More polling information is available at www.zogby.com.
That's because 50% of them are gonna VOTE for him.
|
Candidate
|
January 2003
|
April 2003
|
|
|
Fav/Unfav/Unfam %
|
Fav/Unfav/Unfam %
|
|
Slug #1 |
70-10-17 |
67-16-15 |
|
Slug #2 |
64-15-18 |
57-22-18 |
|
Slug #3 |
51-6-41 |
51-13-34 |
|
Slug #4 |
36-37-23 |
31-43-24 |
|
Slug #5 |
29-6-64 |
25-10-63 |
|
Slug #6 |
22-11-33 |
22-17-60 |
|
Slug #7 |
13-4-82 |
22-8-69 |
|
Slug #8 |
11-33-55 |
8-45-45 |
|
Slug #9 |
Not included |
18-22-57 |
|
Slug #10 |
Not included |
11-11-77 |
If Gephardt wins New Hampshire, does that mean he gets the nomination?
The only thing I can guess is that Gephardt has managed to come off as the least offensive and/or dangerous candidate thus far in the eyes of the average Iowa Democratic voter.
No, but it sure won't hurt.
HAHAHAHAHA
In the meantime, I seriously doubt President Bush will be taking his reelection chances for granted. One of several reasons why his father was defeated in 1992 was the fact that his campaign was run very badly. In contrast, his son is a go-for-the-jugular type who will not give the Dems any breathing room.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.