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Astrologers fail to predict Proof they are wrong
News Telegraph ^ | 8/17/2003 | Robert Matthews

Posted on 08/18/2003 6:25:02 PM PDT by RockDoc

Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish, writes Science Correspondent Robert Matthews.

Good news for rational, level-headed Virgoans everywhere: just as you might have predicted, scientists have found astrology to be rubbish.

Its central claim - that our human characteristics are moulded by the influence of the Sun, Moon and planets at the time of our birth - appears to have been debunked once and for all and beyond doubt by the most thorough scientific study ever made into it.

For several decades, researchers tracked more than 2,000 people - most of them born within minutes of each other. According to astrology, the subject should have had very similar traits.

The babies were originally recruited as part of a medical study begun in London in 1958 into how the circumstances of birth can affect future health. More than 2,000 babies born in early March that year were registered and their development monitored at regular intervals.

Researchers looked at more than 100 different characteristics, including occupation, anxiety levels, marital status, aggressiveness, sociability, IQ levels and ability in art, sport, mathematics and reading - all of which astrologers claim can be gauged from birth charts.

The scientists failed to find any evidence of similarities between the "time twins", however. They reported in the current issue of the Journal of Consciousness Studies: "The test conditions could hardly have been more conducive to success . . . but the results are uniformly negative."

Analysis of the research was carried out by Geoffrey Dean, a scientist and former astrologer based in Perth, Australia, and Ivan Kelly, a psychologist at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada.

Dr Dean said the results undermined the claims of astrologers, who typically work with birth data far less precise than that used in the study. "They sometimes argue that times of birth just a minute apart can make all the difference by altering what they call the 'house cusps'," he said. "But in their work, they are happy to take whatever time they can get from a client."

The findings caused alarm and anger in astrological circles yesterday. Roy Gillett, the president of the Astrological Association of Great Britain, said the study's findings should be treated "with extreme caution" and accused Dr Dean of seeking to "discredit astrology".

Frank McGillion, a consultant to the Southampton-based Research Group for the Critical Study of Astrology, said of the newly published work: "It is simplistic and highly selective and does not cover all of the research." He added that he would lodge a complaint with the editors of the journal.

Astrologers have for centuries claimed to be able to extract deep insights into the personality and destiny of people using nothing more than the details of the time and place of birth.

Astrology has been growing in popularity. Surveys suggest that a majority of people in Britain believe in it, compared with only 13 per cent 50 years ago. The Association of Professional Astrologers claims that 80 per cent of Britons read star columns, and psychological studies have found that 60 per cent regularly read their horoscopes.

Despite the scepticism of scientists, astrology has grown to be a huge worldwide business, spawning thousands of telephone lines, internet sites and horoscope columns in newspapers and magazines.

It seems that no sector of society is immune to its attraction. A recent survey found that a third of science students subscribed to some aspects of astrology, while some supposedly hard-headed businessmen now support a thriving market in "financial astrology" - paying for predictions of trends such as the rise and fall of the stock market. Astrology supplements have been known to increase newspaper circulation figures and papers are prepared to pay huge sums to the most popular stargazers.

Some of the most popular figures in the field, such as Russell Grant, Mystic Meg and Shelley von Strunckel, can earn £600,000 or more a year.

A single profitable astrology website can be worth as much as £50 million.

When the Daily Mail discovered that its expert on the zodiac, Jonathan Cainer, was about to leave the newspaper in 1999, it reportedly offered him a £1 million salary and a £1 million bonus to stay. He still preferred the offer at the Daily Express: no salary but all the money from his telephone lines.

The time-twins study is only the start of the bad news for astrologers, however. Dr Dean and Prof Kelly also sought to determine whether stargazers could match a birth chart to the personality profile of a person among a random selection.

They reviewed the evidence from more than 40 studies involving over 700 astrologers, but found the results turned out no better than guesswork.

The success rate did not improve even when astrologers were given all the information they asked for and were confident they had made the right choice.

Dr Dean said the consistency of the findings weighed heavily against astrology.

"It has no acceptable mechanism, its principles are invalid and it has failed hundreds of tests," he said. "But no hint of these problems will be found in astrology books which, in effect, are exercises in deception."

Dr Dean is ready for a torrent of criticism. He said: "I'm probably the most hated person in astrology because I'm regarded as a turncoat."


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: astology; kookfest; loons; research; stars
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To: RockDoc
How about fortune cookies?

Fortune cookies are bunk but reading the entrals of dead goats is very accurate 98% of the time. The other two percent is due to illiterate translators and a study has shown that 98% of the illiterate translators were educated in the California Pubic School System.

61 posted on 08/18/2003 8:38:48 PM PDT by slimer
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To: John Beresford Tipton


***Alas, yes, and though I am grateful to be remembered for my past generosity, I am now unfortunately in no position to respond favorably to your requests for million dollar cashier checks. ***

I'm still waitin on mine from several months ago! I've had to move from my trailer house to the underpass so when you strike it rich with your Nigerian friends send mine to Me! I'm planning to TRIPPLE IT as soon as I can get over to the CHEROKEE CASINO in Oklahoma! Then I'll get my trailer back!
62 posted on 08/18/2003 8:44:07 PM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (Astrology is still bunk.)
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To: Sabertooth
Yep. Everyone following their uncannily accurate horoscopes in the daily papers is reading the wrong sign.

Exactly.

63 posted on 08/18/2003 8:51:42 PM PDT by longshadow
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To: cricket
>>The babies were originally recruited as part of a medical study begun in London in 1958 into how the circumstances of birth can affect future health. More than 2,000 babies born in early March that year were registered and their development monitored at regular intervals.<<

How can you do a study on astrology using only babies from a particular time/place? Who were the controls, what are the details?

The last study I heard of, was csi cops (paranormal skeptics) that did a study in Britain about a prediction astrology makes on who would make a better athlete. I wish I could remember more details. They did the study, found out that astrology had a significantly greater than chance of predicting that outcome. They proceeded to phony the numbers up to make is non significant, and one of the scientists on their board quit over the issue with a ton of bad publicity for the organization.

The article at the beginning is silly, not even real science. It does not outline control groups, and it only studies one time/place for data.

I would have expected that from nonscientist astrologers, but not from real "scientists".

DK

64 posted on 08/18/2003 9:00:13 PM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: Old Sarge
I can suspend disbelief.

bet you couldn't if I told you I had a magical frog named Bo-Bo that lived in my butt, and could predict sports events...

65 posted on 08/18/2003 9:01:10 PM PDT by fourdeuce82d
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To: RockDoc
INTREP
66 posted on 08/18/2003 9:02:09 PM PDT by LiteKeeper
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To: RockDoc
Awe darn...next thing you're going to tell me is there is no Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy!
67 posted on 08/18/2003 9:02:28 PM PDT by NordP (ARNOLD - erasing our past, to protect our future?)
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To: All
I'm a Capricorn...and darn it, we are the best! (/smile)
68 posted on 08/18/2003 9:05:25 PM PDT by NordP (ARNOLD - erasing our past, to protect our future?)
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To: StatesEnemy
"Man who look to stale cookie for advice probably make good busboy. Ask waitress for application"

LOL.

I can't speak for all the little cookies out there, but I give pretty good advice. ;-)

69 posted on 08/18/2003 9:06:19 PM PDT by fortunecookie (longtime lurker and new poster)
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To: RadioAstronomer
nope, never
70 posted on 08/18/2003 9:09:47 PM PDT by Nachum
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To: montag813
"Astrology works. This is irrefutable."

Oh yeah, expecially for the nutcase taking money for prediciting things that won't happen. Yeah, works for the cheat exploiting peoples fear of the future. The only person it doesn't work for is the person receiving the reading. LOL!

Prove to me it works.

71 posted on 08/18/2003 9:10:49 PM PDT by nmh
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To: Nachum
Just luck. A talent or real knowledge is accurate 100% of the time.
72 posted on 08/18/2003 9:11:41 PM PDT by nmh
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To: Hunble
I consider an honest horoscope as one that required the exact minute, Latitude and Longitude and other details of the moment when you were born.

What if you were delivered via cesarean?

73 posted on 08/18/2003 9:13:56 PM PDT by cinFLA
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To: AEMILIUS PAULUS
"If astrology is correct then every person dying as a result of the A-Bomb dropped on Hiroshima was born under the same sign."

You got it. If certain events are to happen to certain people born under a particular sign at a particular time, then IDENTICAL things should happen to ALL those people no matter where they live. Of course astrologists know their craft is crap but those who wish to believe will figure out some excuse as to WHY this doesn't happen. LOL for astrology. It's for desperate, stupid people with no moral compass.

74 posted on 08/18/2003 9:14:51 PM PDT by nmh
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To: nmh
In general, scientific studies shoot for 95% confidence, don't they? That means one in twenty studies will be totally wrong. But of course, if they say a particularly exciting (but wrong) things, they will find mainstream popularity.

DK
75 posted on 08/18/2003 9:16:15 PM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: WKB
"Lev. 20:6 “‘I will set my face against the person who turns to mediums and spiritists to prostitute himself by following them, and I will cut him off from his people."

That's the truth. Perfection comes right out with it. Still others will follow evil, by choice.

76 posted on 08/18/2003 9:17:06 PM PDT by nmh
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To: Hunble
"Good Christians will recognize how important "FAITH" is, and should be able to figure out how it actually worked."

Christians have nothing to do with astrology since it is evil. Faith in God and following His teachings are what Christians should do. When you read His teachings you'll see why people have faith in Him and not something like astrology. Besides astrology is singled out and forbidden to them if they wish to remain a Christian.

77 posted on 08/18/2003 9:20:51 PM PDT by nmh
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To: jacquej
"But, i find it interesting to study and then see how it works out. I think it is a like a peek into God's plan for our world, but we can only "see through a glass darkly"

Just curious ... if the Judeo CHristian God condemns things such as astrology, then how could it lay out His plan? And why would He use something he condemns, astrology for His plan?

78 posted on 08/18/2003 9:24:06 PM PDT by nmh
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To: Hunble
"I have the natural gift of ESP."

Hummm, tell me what I am thinking and for bonus points what will happen to me tomorrow.

79 posted on 08/18/2003 9:28:27 PM PDT by nmh
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To: nmh
Christians have nothing to do with astrology since it is evil.

Now I understand why the translations of the Dead Sea Scrolls has been delayed for so long.

Ever read that little thing in the Bible about a Star when Jesus was born? Ever wonder why wise men traveled all that distance?

80 posted on 08/18/2003 9:31:05 PM PDT by Hunble
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