Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

UPI ^ | 9/4/03 | Shaun Waterman

[Jambe]

Brings back memories of pre-Y2K worst case scenarios.

There was an interesting movie The Trigger Effect done in 1996 about the mayhem in civilization caused by a power outage and the ripple effect (no water, gas, food, money, medical, etc.)

I also live in Southeastern Michigan (about 25 miles West of Detroit)- nobody admits to living IN Detroit anymore. I was in Northern Michigan at the time of the outage, but returned that evening as the wife was home alone.

It was very strange approaching the Detroit area that evening. Small towns 50 miles away that still had power were overwhelmed with people and cars. Gas stations, stores and ATM were being wiped out in a matter of hours. Many stations had police monitoring the gas lines due to reports of problems.

On the good side, it happened late in the week and many left the area for Northern cottages/homes/parks. Many of those that stayed behind re-connected with their neighborhood or community.

I'm just glad the outage didn't extend over any significant period of time or happen during winter; even though my generator did a fine job.

Rent the movie, then decide if your prepared for the next Trigger Event.

[livius]

I also recommend one of those neat little hand-cranked radio/light combinations. I bought mine at Bed, Bath & Beyond, believe it or not, for about $40. I live in Florida, where we have hurricanes that knock out power (to say the least), so most people down here are somewhat prepared. Not for a long haul, perhaps, but at least for a few days, which is enough to avert panic.

[Trampled by Lambs]

The terrorists already know. The common citizens are ignorant. Now at least they may have the time and inclination to do something practical to plan for emergencies, power grid loss being one of them.

I realize that our enemies are not stupid and probably have thought of this. However, articles like this still make me uneasy. There's always the possibility that I (we) over-estimate the intelligence of the enemy and so why point out our vulnerabilities for all to see?,

[Alberta's Child]

Fortunately, I had power in my section of New Jersey during the recent blackout. But if I didn't, I was simply going to load my camping gear into my truck and spend a few days up in the mountains of upstate New York.

I would have brought my cell phone, but only to call the office on Monday to let them know I wouldn't be at work. LOL.

[Timesink]

"With power out beyond a day or two, both food and water supplies would soon fail. Transportation systems would be at a standstill ... natural gas pressure would decline and some would lose gas altogether -- not good in the winter time ... Communications would be spotty or non-existent. ... All in all, our cities would not be very nice places to be... Martial law would likely follow," Paul H. Gilbert of the National Research Council told a congressional panel.

Sounds more like the first 72 hours of the Dean Administration to me.

[MatthewViti]

Why we still welcome Islamists into this country is beyond me. Why we still haven't secured the borders is mind blowing. Wake up Bush bots!

[_Jim]

Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

Lightning storms, hurricanes, torrential rains - contrasted with a 'terrorist' attack would be miniscule ... the RESILIENCY in a properly operating network is remarkable.

As soon as we get FirstEnergy straighened out - WE'LL be in good shape.

[Poohbah]

Soviet Stratgy for Nuclear War, by Douglass and Hoebert (This book is a couple decades old.) said that the #3 target, after our own nuclear capability and military C³I is the power grid.

True. But in the course of trying to target sets #1 and #2, they'd hit so many targets in set #3 that the results would be similar to a deliberate attack against the grid.

[_Jim]

Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

"Terror Attack" ............................. "Collapse"

WHAT falls in the gap between these two endpoints?

I'm talking specifics ... what skills, what knowledge does it take?

What *specific* tools (and I'm NOT talking just a computer w/a dail-up access but *specific* software packaages) ...

'Disrutping' a grid ain't like Telnetting into a foreign host and 'cracking' it to get 'root' ...

[Poohbah]

First thing that comes to mind: ability to design detonators for explosives that are not sensitive to EMI, lest the bomb you're planting "cook off" as you get close to the switching station...

An attack of this grade would have to operate in both the physical and information domains. Possibly even the cognitive domain (i.e., there would need to be a deception plan to mislead the power grid operators into helping the attackers).

[_Jim]

John McCarthy, director of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Project at George Mason University, described how a student of his -- using information in the public domain -- had created a comprehensive map of the nation's entire fiber optic cable network as part of his Ph.D. dissertation.

THIS is always going to be the case ... there are TOO MANY people simply withing organizations that *know* htis information, and, were they to 'tuen bad' could wreak ALL kinds of havoc *without* being identified for days and weaks even ... the fortunate things about 'terrorist' attacks on infrastructure, is, #1 there is so d*mn much of it #2 MOST of it is over-designed #3 it's redundant ... the 'terrorists' on the other hand are, for the most part (it turns out) bumbling idiots. A persomn like Atta, with centered, focused drive comes along ever so infrequently ...

[_Jim]

Re-issue w/spelling corrections

John McCarthy, director of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Project at George Mason University, described how a student of his -- using information in the public domain -- had created a comprehensive map of the nation's entire fiber optic cable network as part of his Ph.D. dissertation.

THIS is always going to be the case ... there are TOO MANY people simply within organizations that *know* all this sensitive information, and, were they to 'turn bad' could wreak ALL kinds of havoc *without* being identified for days and weeks even ... the fortunate things about 'terrorist' attacks on infrastructure, is, #1 there is so d*mn much of it #2 MOST of it is over-designed #3 it's redundant #4 it's *not* a static scenario: law-enforcement *and* utility operators are active, not passive in their ability to adapt ... the 'terrorists' on the other hand are, for the most part (it turns out) bumbling idiots. A person like Atta, with centered, focused drive comes along ever so infrequently ...

[_Jim]

First thing that comes to mind: ability

I THINK you nailed it RIGHT THERE.

[RightWhale]

When the grid goes down, it should collapse to its several local, autonomous community systems. Overall efficiency would not be as great, and there would be local problems, but the whole economy should not suffer. Drag out the old diesel generators and dig up the old station operator and start polluting the air like in the good, old days.

[_Jim]

Blow out a few transformers in the right place and

... a proper operating transmission operator would re-route 'power flows' ... with 'FirstEnergy' - blind in their control room (we're probably going to find out these were *recurring* issues with them) to the active situation - yes, you could wreak some havoc ... I suspect that you couldn't take down the grid if you wanted to in an area operated by PJM or AEP - the automatic curtailments with load shedding relays, manual shedding would eventually 'island' that portion of a troublesome system ...

[af_vet_rr]

I realize that our enemies are not stupid and probably have thought of this. However, articles like this still make me uneasy. There's always the possibility that I (we) over-estimate the intelligence of the enemy and so why point out our vulnerabilities for all to see?,

Our enemies are very intelligent, nobody here saw 9/11 coming (some would argue Tom Clancy's novels and a few other authors predicted such an event).

Better the citizens be prepared than be in the dark (not just literally).

[Leatherneck_MT]

Got all that and a gas run Generator to keep the lights on at night.

Of course here in Montana you'd better have a backup electrical system regardless of where you live :)

[sarasota]

Do you really think the House and Senate would pass legislation? If so, how long do you think the debate would take? And the compliance--how could it be enforced with all the illegal paperwork already available?

[Centurion2000]

Everything you ever wanted to know about survival and preparations ....

The Rubicon

[_Jim]

Everything you ever wanted to know about survival and preparations ....

I'm too tied to civilization to spend much time worrying about 'survival' per se; a few basics like a reliable flashlight, even a 1 to 4 KW generarator is not unreasonable, because, locally induced 'trouble' like ice storms or tornados that can sweep a path 1/2 mile wide are MUCH more of a possibility than 'terrror' is on the scale that most 'hucksters' of survival gear like to hype ...