U.S. Senate '04: Four Down, Two More to Go?

HUMAN EVENTS ^ | Sep 23, 2003 | John Gizzi

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Four of the 34 U.S. Senators up for election next year have announced their exiting--Zell Miller (Ga.), John Edwards (S.C.), and Ernest Hollings (S.C.), Democrats all, and Republican Peter Fitzgerald (Ill.)

Now, signs are ominous that the next two senatorial shoes to drop will be those of Republican Don Nickles (Okla.) and Democrat John Breaux (La.). Word on the D.C. cocktail circuit over the weekend was that four-termer and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Nickles was anxious to make more money in the private sector, as was Breaux (who has been courted for every seven-figure lobbying job from legislative pointman of the Recording Industry Association of America to succeeding Jack Valenti as head of the Motion Picture Association of America).

Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, one of his party's few bright lights in the Sooner State, has signaled he will run for the Senate if Nickles bails. Similarly, Republican Rep. Ernest Istook, stalwart conservative and key Appropriations Committee Member, wants to run, while former Rep. J.C. Watts, the last black Republican in the House, is also being touted for an open Senate seat (although Watts-watchers say that he is thoroughly enjoying his current niche as chairman of Newt Gingrich's old GOPAC and corporate board member). All bets are off on the Republican side if popular former two-term Gov. Frank Keating decides to forego his current job as head of the American Council of Life Insurers and return to the hustings.

Louisiana Democrats insist that Breaux will hold off an announcement until at least November to pump up friend and fellow Democrat, Rep. Chris John, for succession; the near-certain GOP candidate is staunch conservative Rep. David Vitter. Louisiana is the lone Southern State not to have elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction.

[Theodore R.]

cost Terrell the race

Do you think Terrell's election day "nap" contributed to her defeate? Or was her defeat already written in Louisiana history?

[Huck]

Politics sucks.

[JohnnyZ]

Don't dismiss Suzie Terrell jumping into the fray either.

I am dismissing that possibility right now. She's running for AG. If she wins, she'll need to serve out one term, anyway, not just three months! And if she loses, she'll have lost twice in two years and won't get support for anything.

Vitter is basically the Man -- unless Billy Tauzin were to decide to run.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I'm confident we can retain the Oklahoma seat.

People said this in 2002 about the OK governorship, when it was vacated by Frank Keating. Didn't happen!"

---

If a conservative third-party candidate picks up 15% in the Senate race (as he did in the gubernatorial race), then yes, Brad Carson will win it. If not, the GOP nominee will be favored (especially in a presidential year) so long as it's Watts, Istook, Keating or some other high-profile conservative.

[JohnnyZ]

Apparently, Don Nickles has lost the fire in the belly in politics.

He's already served longer than he intended to in the Senate. Why should he change and become a career politician now?

[wylenetheconservative]

Terrell would have lost no matter what happened. The Democrat fraud machine was cranked up to full strength in New Orleans. The buses were out in the ghettos picking up and paying whoever got on, whether they were actually registered or not, felon or not. They would have come through with as many votes as necessary to defeat her. That said, I believe that Vitter or Terrell are the only candidates that can pick up this seat for us. LA is a tough win for us. Lots of fraud in N.O. and the African-American vote is easy to turn out because it is concentrated in cities like N.O., Shreveport, Monroe, etc. Brazile will not run under any circumstances, she knows better. But any Anglo Democrat will start the race with an advantage over any R just because of the high number of black voters in the state.

[Pubbie]

"If not, the GOP nominee will be favored (especially in a presidential year) so long as it's Watts, Istook, Keating or some other high-profile conservative."

Watts and Keating are apparently enjoying making money in the private sector, and are unlikely to want to return to politics.

Istook, who I like, is the most likely to run for Nickels' seat.

[wylenetheconservative]

OK will be no problem in a Senate race. OK is an R state on Federal offices. Will elect a D gov, but not to the Senate. Only one CD will elect a D, and it contains most of the reservations.

[JohnnyZ]

Terrell wasn't a great candidate to start out with. And if she loses this winnable AG race, she's done.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"LA has the highest % of black voters in the country, and Brazile is superb at getting out the vote...remember, she brokered the last-minute deals that got the vote out for Landriue..which cost Terrell the race..."

---

Yeah, but Brazile won't carry white-majority precincts the way Landrieu did. Remember, Landrieu pretended to be a moderate, lied about her abortion record, put out adds saying she supported Miguel Estrada's nomination and basically fooled Louisianans into thinking she was just like John Breaux. Brazile won't be able to fool them, though.

Chris John, though, would be a tough candidate to beat, even for a good Republican candidate such as Vitter. Unless the jungle primary format is declared unconstitutional (as it should) before the summer of 2004, Brazile wouldn't be able to make the run-off with John and Vitter running. I think our safest bet would be if the jungle primary was declared unconstitutional and only RATs could vote in a RAT primary, giving Brazile the edge over John (and even if John won, black voters may be unenthusiastic in their support for him in the general election). But Vitter would still need to run hard against Brazile, since she's one smart cookie (20 times smarter than Senator Brownroots).

[JohnnyZ]

Maybe Cleo will run :)

[wylenetheconservative]

She got 49% in a Senate race against an incumbent Democrat in Louisiana. So, I'd say she must have been at least an adequate candidate. If it weren't for the massive fraud in Monroe and New Orleans then she would have won. She will win this AG race. She, like Vitter, has what it takes to win statewide in LA: A base in the N.O. suburbs. An R must get big margins in Metairie and St. Tammany parish to win. Both Terrell and Vitter can do that.

[Salvation]

**Put 'em both on the Judiciary Committee, and watch the RATS squirm.**

LOL!

[wylenetheconservative]

Scrapping the all-party primary won't help Brazile any. African-Americans don't turn out big for primaries. They have to be turned out, and it will be difficult for Brazile to do that without the party apparatus and BIG $ behind her. Secondly, almost all local offices all over the state are held by D's, even in conservative areas. So the R primary would have few voters. Most conservative whites would vote in the D primary so they could vote for sherriff, etc. They would vote against Brazile, giving John the nomination.

[Theodore R.]

Do you think Istook's Mormonism will hurt him in predominantly Baptist OK?

[Pubbie]

Probably not.

[ken5050]

Probably..I don't really know enough about LA politics, nor even the state..and ALL politics is local, right...but from what I read it was the last minute black "get out the vote" effort that made the difference...Suzie wasn't really an experienced candidate...not really "ready for prime time"..

[BlackRazor]

from what I read it was the last minute black "get out the vote" effort that made the difference

That certainly helped, but I think the turning point in the race came when Landrieu began to accuse the Bush administration (and Terrell by proxy) of pursuing policies that would put Louisiana sugar-cane growers out of business (via a deal with Mexico to allow importation of cheap Mexican sugar). By all accounts I've seen, Landrieu made very effective use of this issue.

[Charlie OK]

I'm a Baptist and I like Istook. I gotta be honest, I had no idea he was Mormon.

I am hoping JC is our next governor, and Istook our next Senator. Keating is IMHO too controversial, what with his chronic foot in mouth problem. I'm not certain he could defeat Carson. Carson comes across as Moderate and likable. He could very well win.

[wylenetheconservative]

Landrieu did use the sugar issue effectively, but Terrell would still have prevailed if not for the massive fraud in the inner-cities of New Orleans and Monroe. I know most of you guys live in nice upscale communities, so as someone who has been there, let me tell you. The Democrats get away with things in the cities on election day that you would find completely unthinkable. You would be disgusted if you knew the truth.