Posted on 09/28/2003 7:41:12 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Edited on 04/13/2004 2:44:06 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
Forget the Cruz Bustamante "fallback strategy" or the long list of other candidates -- when all is said and done, the recall race is coming down to a face-off between Gov. Gray Davis and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, internal tracking polls show.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
LOL! The pants-wetting pundits are so far out of the loop. Voters react positively to strong yet polite candidates. The Left has only cowardly bullies. There's a big difference.
Excellent news.
For the past month I've been convinced that McClintock's candidacy won't make a bit of difference in this race. And all these intra-party firefights about who should withdraw for the good of the party are disgusting. At this late date any of the candidates could withdraw without making a significant difference in the vote tally. The ballots are printed and the voters will select their favorite (or favorites in some cases) regardless of who is still in the race.
Recall that the Stanford polls were the only ones which did not ask the voters who they preferred. Instead, it presented them with the actual "laundry list" ballot and let them choose their candidates by voting. The "also-rans" shrank to almost nothing, and Schwarzenegger was the primary beneficiary of those losses by the also-rans.
Crank in the mechanics of the election itself -- the incredible ballot -- and this race shakes out as I described it. Davis loses. Schwarzenegger wins (even with McClintock in the election). Total vote for recall will be significantly higher than total vote for replacement. And finally, Davis gets a smaller percentage on the recall question than Schwarzenegger gets in replacing him.
On both recall and replacement, the gaps are too big to close. Remember that almost all elections take place "between the 40-yard lines." A ten point difference, 55 to 45, is a "landslide" in American elections. Davis loses by a landslide. Schwarzenegger wins by a landslide.
This election is all over except the shouting.
Congressman Billybob
I wonder how many people have learned he's a Mechista. I've gotten at least a dozen people to the point where they will not even consider him after I explained MEChA's infamous slogan, "For the race everything; for those outside the race, nothing."
Now multiply that dozen thousands of times over and it's enough to make a difference.
Of course, offering third world, tax-the-rich Marxist solutions to everything doesn't help him much, either.
I hope you're right. I'd vote for McClintock in a primary, but he is going to lose, so I will now vote to Scharzenegger instead. Regretable but that is the reality. Hopefully McClintock supporters will realize this in the end and switch their votes. Or perhaps McClintock will drop out a few days before the recall once it's clear he can't win.
If nothing else, Arnie can at least veto the Far Left legislature the racist/sexist/heterophobic Democratic assembly will try to pass. Arnie is no McClintock, but he's no Davis, either. Small steps ... small steps.
To some extent, they still do, since McClintock is holding onto a significant chunk of support.
But Bustamante blew it with the Indian money and his horrible performance in the big debate. His past use of the "N" word received some publicity, and there certainly are some valid questions about his attitudes about race.
What the poll numbers above tell us is that Democrats would rather retain Davis than elect Bustamante, and they're not too keen on doing either.
I have to agree with Congressman Billybob. This race is over.
McClintock should drop out a few days before the election so as not to alienate GOP insiders. It would make him look like a selfless team player. Not that I have any idea how he could use that political capital for anything except becoming governor, which will be unavailable to him for 8 years if Arnold wins (assuming Arnold runs for re-election).
I have to agree with Congressman Billybob. This race is over.
I hope you’re right. Conservative laws will not be passed no matter who wins -– Republicans are too few in the CA legislature. But a Republican governor, even a RINO, at least wields a veto power, and there are enough Republicans in the legislature to put the brakes on tax increases.
I’ll take it.
I think a substantial number of McClintock voters will make the same rational decision that you have made. Not all, and maybe not even most, will do so. Some are the single-issue voters who will never support a candidate who expresses even limited support for legal abortion. Some cannot vote for him because of what they see as immoral behavior in the past.
But enough will decide that a McClintock vote is a wasted vote, and the threat of a Bustamante governorship too horrible to contemplate, that they will cast their vote for Schwarzenegger. They can then focus their energy in getting a true conservative elected to replace Senator Boxer.
Scince when did over-bearing opression by a disconnected government become a paletteable "progressive message" to people who truely believe in independance.
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