The Electability Myth: Why McCain is neither inevitable nor electable (Must Read)

John McCain is neither the inevitable Republican Nominee nor as electable as current polling data suggests for three reasons 1) the mainstream media will turn their backs on McCain as soon as he is the nominee, 2) so-called independents and moderates will not show up as strongly for McCain in the general election as in the primary, 3) McCain cannot unify the party because many important conservatives will not rally around him, and 4) McCain-Feingold will literally seal his fate because conservatives will not outlay cash in the general election for McCain.

The mainstream media will turn against Senator McCain as soon as he selected as the Republican nominee. Evidence of this is already mounting. For example, as soon as it started to seem inevitable that McCain was going to be the nominee the internationally syndicated Associated Press ran a story about John McCain’s flip-flopping on his tax stance. Before all the pundits were suggesting inevitability, this story was unable to gain any traction in the mainstream media and was only brought up slightly in the debates. In fact, no moderator during the debate even asked McCain any tough follow up’s on his lame excuse as to why his position changed.

Although the AP was the first to turn their back, it is only a matter of time before they start giving free air time to pieces like this, and this suggesting the surge is not working, and like this (scroll for video). This clip is a piece created by the far left portraying McCain as a warmonger who is even more blood-thirsty than President Bush towards starting wars. While McCain will have to pay millions of dollars that he will not have to get air time for his ads, the mainstream media will be presenting these attack ads as if they were objectively reporting the news.The mainstream media knows that Republicans and conservatives do not like McCain. That is why the far-left liberal New York Times endorsed him as the best candidate for the Republican party.

It is no secret that the New York times is anti-war, why would they endorse an apparent war-monger like McCain. The Times was so against the war and came out even stronger against the surge. It is ironic that they were so willing to give their stamp of approval. The Times will likely be among the first to be printing anti-McCain articles against him once he becomes the nominee. Let’s not forget that the Times is nationally syndicated and although its subscriptions have dropped substantially, it still reaches audiences of moderates and independents across the nation.

So-called independents and moderates will not back McCain as strongly in the general election as in the primary. McCain has not beat any candidate in the categories of self-identified republicans or conservatives, yet he has had great backing for independents. New Hampshire came out strong for Senator McCain. One has to wonder what their intentions were. Exit polls are meaningless. The New Hampshire primary proved that. If I were voting in an opposition party’s primary as an “Independent” I would tell them everything that I thought a true Republican or Conservative would want to hear to skew the numbers in a way that makes that candidate to appear to have the best stance on all issues important to the party’s members. I would even vote in the opposition primary if I was satisfied with either candidate for my party and knew a vote for McCain would be like a vote for Hillary or Obama.

Perhaps the reason why the pollsters were so wrong about Barrack Obama’s inevitable victory in New Hampshire was because many moderates that will vote either Obama or Hillary in the general election switched over to vote for McCain knowing that true conservatives and core Republicans would support him, thus splintering the party and greatly increasing the chances of a Democratic victory this Fall.

Senator McCain is like Howard Dean in the 2004 election against Bush. The opposition was backing him so strongly that he became the presumptive nominee. Everyone knew that he represented such a small fraction of the party and did not stand a chance in the general election. It took a while then for the core of the Democratic party to realize this and eventually they rejected him outright.In Florida, McCain barely won, but pulled in many votes from Independents that registered as Republicans and technically could not vote in the primary. Why should we think that these “independents” will come out just as strongly in the general election? They likely won’t.

A non-scientific poll conducted by Michelle Malkin revealed that if Obama was the candidate, even conservatives would likely prefer him over McCain. This suggests that moderates are even more likely to toss their votes towards a Democrat than Senator McCain. Not only will these so called “independents” and “moderates” likely not turn out for McCain in the general election, but many prominent conservatives will not either.

McCain cannot unify the Republican party because many prominent conservatives will not throw him their support. Most of McCain’s “big” Republican endorsements came from moderate Republicans, who probably like Coulter said on Fox were looking for some government positions and believed in the inevitability and electability myths about McCain. However, prominent conservative after not so prominent conservative has come out swinging hard against McCain.

Protein Wisdom was among the first to combat accusations of McCain derangement syndrome leveled at conservatives. Next, syndicated columnist and O’Reilly Factor stand-in Michelle Malkin revealed to Glenn Beck that she wouldn’t vote for McCain over Hillary just yet. Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich, and Tom Tancredo has some harsh words for McCain, before Sean Hannity, Rick Santorum and Laura Ingraham recently endorsed Govenor Mitt Romney.

Furthermore, Ann Coulter said that she campaign for Hillary over McCain. Joe Scarborough also ripped into McCain’s unauthentic conservatism. Mark Levin also contribued to the firestorm surrounding McCain while endorsing Mitt Romney. Comedian turned political pundit Jackie Mason even called McCain a disgusting low-life. Thomas Sowell also said McCain was engaging in Crooked Talk. Right Wing News, providing additional support for these premises published “The Conservative Case Against John McCain in 2008” Although he has not officially endorsed Romney, Rush Limbaugh for the first time said that he could imagine not supporting a Republican candidate and then later made this parody against McCain.

The list of conservatives and Republicans against McCain keeps growing daily. However, the Mainstream Media and other moderate Republicans, Neo-cons, and compassionate conservatives would have us believe that McCain is inevitable, electable, and that we are all going to have hold our noses and accept it. Why should we, the core of the Republican party cede to this madness and not stand up for our principles? Even if we do hold our noses and not go as far as Coulter in campainging for the Democratic candidate, McCain will still have some problems because many conservatives will sit out and the ones who do ultimately vote for McCain have vowed to refuse to donate money to him.

Thus, McCain-Feingold, McCain’s own anti-free speech legislation may become McCain’s biggest barrier to electability by eliminating the soft-money that he could have raised through his friends Arnold and Rudy and other like minded moderates. As noted in McConnell v. FEC, a United States Supreme Court ruling on the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, the Act was designed to address two issues, but the one that will hurt McCain most is one targeting the increased role of soft money in campaign financing, by prohibiting national political party committees from raising or spending any funds not subject to federal limits.

This pretty much leaves McCain’s wealth supporters like Arnold and Rudy unable to donate specifically to McCain’s campaign any more than the national limit which is less than $5000. Of course, there are other more creative ways that wealth individuals like these can contribute to McCain’s campaign. However, losing the financial support from the millions of conservatives will not be able to help McCain realistically compete with either Hillary’s or Obama’s political war chests, let alone the free campaigning that they will be receiving from ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, and maybe even Fox News.

Thus, sadly, if McCain is the inevitable nominee like the New York Times yearns for and many moderate Republican’s are suggesting, he is going to have a real tough time getting elected because 1) the mainstream media will turn their backs on McCain as soon as he is the nominee, 2) so-called independents and moderates will not show up as strongly for McCain in the general election as in the primary, and 3) McCain cannot unify the party because many important conservatives will not rally around him, and 4) McCain-Feingold will literally seal his fate because conservatives will not outlay cash in the general election for McCain.

Republicans should seriously start to ask themsevles whether a candidate who has not been able to garner the majority of either the Republican or conservative vote in any election and whose campaign was once nearly destroyed by the media who seems to be temporarily rooting for him, will be able to maintain his air of inevitability during the general election.

The mainstream media will turn against Senator McCain as soon as he selected as the Republican nominee.

So far as I can tell, that's true.

If I were voting in an opposition party’s primary as an “Independent” I would tell them everything that I thought a true Republican or Conservative would want to hear to skew the numbers in a way that makes that candidate to appear to have the best stance on all issues important to the party’s members. I would even vote in the opposition primary if I was satisfied with either candidate for my party and knew a vote for McCain would be like a vote for Hillary or Obama.

It sounds like you're assuming that convinced Democrats or liberals wouldn't have voted in the Democrat primary. That may have been true in some states where there was no real Democratic primary, but probably not in New Hampshire.

A lot of politically passionate people assume everyone is in one politically committed camp or the other. In fact, most independent voters are somewhere in the middle. They aren't operatives for the other side.

Perhaps the reason why the pollsters were so wrong about Barack Obama’s inevitable victory in New Hampshire was because many moderates that will vote either Obama or Hillary in the general election switched over to vote for McCain knowing that true conservatives and core Republicans would support him, thus splintering the party and greatly increasing the chances of a Democratic victory this Fall.

But aren't you also saying that true conservatives won't support McCain? Don't those two arguments conflict?

McCain could well turn out to be a real bust, but I don't know if we can safely assume that his people wouldn't be able to use Clinton's or Obama's negatives against them with swing voters.

McCain-Feingold, McCain’s own anti-free speech legislation may become McCain’s biggest barrier to electability by eliminating the soft-money that he could have raised through his friends Arnold and Rudy and other like minded moderates.

That could be true. If McCain doesn't get broad based support from conservative donors he may regret not having large contributions from wealthy contributors. But throw off all limits and you might be surprised at the results: the Democrats have a lot of ultra-rich donors who would love to give even more than they can under current laws.

Thanks so much for calling and also for the input about what you’re finding.

I have found that sort of thing myself in talking to friends and relatives. Most people aren’t that much interested and don’t pay attention to the political scene like we do -they don’t even know where to begin when it gets down to crunch time. I find that they are grateful for any opinions they are able to get from people they like and trust.

I am quite willing to be of help. :)

Of course, I have plenty of friends and relatives who call me anywhere from a day to a week or so before an election to ask, “OK, who do we vote for in this election?” :)

Really! It’s maddening, but they just don’t care enough to be proactive and go out and do the research themselves.

I remember back when the Christian Coalition published their voter guides how happy the sheep were to get them.

With lazy, uninformed citizens like that in society, it’s no wonder the worst possible people in society are able to come to power in government.

It makes me sick!

That post is on point...but here’s McCain’s strategy: pull in independents and others to win open primaries. He’s then counting on the anti-hillary vote in the general and will count on drawing in folks like me. I find McCain to be intellectually dishonest, personally corrupted by a quest for power, a personification of forces who can’t stand our constitution, and charlatan. But, as a conservative who finds roe v wade to be perhaps the most repugnant decision in our history and holds the liberal members of the supremes in contempt (of court :)) what will i be left with. I must in conscience vote against the abortionists. This is a miserable situation and McCain is anathema to conservatives.

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