Posted on 03/17/2012 10:25:28 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I am writing as a Newt supporter so there are bound to be many who will disagree with my assessments; but these are my personal opinions with little room for argument.
Here are the reasons why Newt should stay put:
1. Santorum v. Obama, the best we can do?
I thought the number one goal for most people here is to beat Obama, i.e., ABO, not ABR (anybody-but-Romney). It makes sense for us to rally behind a candidate ONLY IF that candidate is the best we can muster to match up with Obama, not because he is the current non-Romney favorite.
For good reasons, many Newt supporters see Santorum as a featherweight who has little chance come November. There is simply no reason to throw in the towel at this point just to accommodate him.
2. Sorry, every man for himself now
Early on, many had opined that the best way to block Romney was for Santorum and Gingrich to work together and let the other win those states he is strong in. Newt, through his own wisdom and initiative, had been doing exactly that while Santorum was obviously having none of it.
No one can fault Santorum for trying to win as many delegates as he can, but it does reveal two things about his strategies:
•Blocking-Romney was not his priority; and •He did not want/need collaboration with anyone. Apparently, Santorum’s focus all along has been to establish himself as the strongest not-Romney standing, blocking Romney be damned. All fair enough and it looks like he just might succeed.
But his actions also made it amply clear that this race is all but every man for himself now, splitting votes be damned. That being the case, there is absolutely no justification for anyone to continue to parrot the call for Newt to drop out, let alone call him egotistic and other terrible names if he doesn’t comply immediately. If people truly cared about conservatism, they should be spending all their energy calling for Romney or Paul to drop out.
Santorum on the stump: “We are in this thing not because I so badly want to be the most powerful man in this country. It’s because I want so badly to return the power to you in this country.” Yeah, right. What hollow cliche.
3. Romney v. Obama or Santorum v. Obama, do we really want to pick?
Ultimately, this entire debate around Newt boils down to whether we believe Romney or Santorum has a better shot at defeating Obama. Honestly, nobody knows. As the saying goes, When in doubt, do nothing.
I believe neither Romney nor Santorum is up to the task of taking on Obama. And as much as I detest Romney, if I have to pick, my money will be on Romney, if only for the fact that many clueless, out of work voters may want to believe he could fix the economy. As for Santorum, I cannot think of one thing to recommend him to anyone outside the congregation of his own church.
4. Only Newt has the right to decide what he should to do next
Newt has weathered a lot going this far and really has very little to lose staying in the race. If he is willing to expend time and effort to continue the fight, it is all good news to me as a true supporter; and I hope he has all the necessary resources to do so.
I would be surprised if Newt dropped out but not surprised if he teams with Rick. Remember, Newt offered a partnership with Rick even before SC. Unfortunately he got sneered at. Maybe there will be the proper attitude change?
Yep..
Go Newt!!!!
The Problem as I see it with Romney is that he will be such a mediocre President that even if he does win he will be so middle of the road as to “not upset the apple cart” that the economy will not bloom and then in 4 years it will assure that the democrats take back power on the whole meme that the “economy didn’t recover”. Not to mention any GOP president is going to be so damned hated no matter how “moderate” they are. Mittens will get so damned gun shy that he will be ineffective and the MSM and the Democrat controlled media will smell blood and keep attacking him even as he retreats and this will paralyze him to what needs to be done to restore the economy and defuse all of Obama’s horrible regulatory actions.
Newt is going to be hated like hell anyways and HE KNOWS THAT, but he also knows that he will have the people who put him there behind even if the Media doesn’t paint it that way every night at 5:00pm. So therefore, Newt (who thrives on antagonism instead of flinching from it) will take the bold measures to recover the economy despite being thrashed every night on the MSM news channels. In Four years the MSM will be flabbergasted like their were on election night in 1984, because the man on the street will notice the economy improvement.
Mitt is a Flincher, Newt is a Clincher
If Newt had won Florida things would be different
We’re hosed
You talk a lot about who is the most "electable." IMO, it's silly to think any of these guys are unelectable when they have performed as well as they have in the primaries. Some people theorize that only ONE factor has any influence on who gets elected president, the economy. It's hard to argue that, looking back on past races, although in Bush/Gore's case, you'd have to say the economy decides the popular vote, but not necessarily who wins.
The bottom line here, if you prefer Romney, then your strategy makes perfect sense. Two conservatives splitting the vote is handing Romney extra delegates, as it did in Alabama where a single opponent getting 50% of the vote would have denied him delegates. Two conservatives will hand him even more going forward, where 800 of the remaining 1200 delegates fall under some form of winner-take-all rules.
Newt has weathered a lot going this far and really has very little to lose staying in the race.
Not true. This vote splitting is on track to help Romney get to over 1,144 delegates by June. With a single conservative taking advantage of the highly increased upcoming winner-take-all contests, Romney could be denied probably 100-250 delegates he would get in a 3-man race. We'll see what happens on Tuesday, where in Illinois Romney could win the entire 69 delegates if he wins each district with a mere plurality of the vote, as the polls show him getting now. It is a direct delegate election, hence if Romney gets 35% of the vote in every district and everyone else gets less, he gets all the delegates. Newt and Rick's votes combined in the current polls would exceed Romney's total there by a big margin, enough for them, if combined into one ticket, to win all the delegates.
What I'm advocating is not Newt dropping out, but him teaming up with Rick. Rick would have to go along with it too of course. And if he doesn't, there is certainly a chance he won't get enough of Newt's votes to help him win these contests. It doesn't matter which one of them drops out and joins the other as a V.P. pick, but there appears to be no mathematical way based on current polling to stop Romney from winning the nomination without switching to a 2-man-1-fruitcake (Paul) race where that consolidated conservative candidate finds a way to get all the votes Newt and Rick are currently getting separately.
Go Newt. Fight to win.
Yes, if Newt had won FL, and Rick had qualified to be on the VA ballot, things would be much different, but uninformed primary voters keep Mittens in the driver’s seat.
I should clarify I am advocating one of these guys dropping out and joining the other as an announced V.P. pick who would continue making campaign appearances. So I’m saying drop out, then drop back in on the other guy’s ticket.
Santorum has at least twice said he would consider Newt as V.P. It simply makes more sense for them both to make that decision now when it might matter as opposed to making it after Romney wins the nomination.
Yes, if Newt had won FL, and Rick had qualified to be on the VA ballot, things would be much different, but uninformed primary voters keep Mittens in the driver’s seat.
Newt, without any doubt, will be the most effective president for favorable change towards conservative agenda, among the 4 remaining candidates. Mitt is flip-flop, Santorum’s voting record in congress is left of center, Dr Paul is too radical.
I think that the way Romney won Florida ultimately did him in.
-PJ
I see the problem as the Democrats are likely to take back Congress or part of it in 2014, because historically the opposition party gains seats in an off-year election. And that's when Mitt will be there passing anything they and "moderate" Republicans want, using the same excuse he did in Massachusetts, that he was "handed" a Democrat legislature. This could start happening sooner of course, if enough Democrats are willing to go along with the "moderates."
Not to mention any GOP president is going to be so damned hated no matter how “moderate” they are.
Ironically the same argument Coulter used against Newt, where it made no sense, is what's going to happen to Romney. He is going to be stuck defending the extremely conservative Mormon religion, but the way he governs, none of that conservatism will ever be made into policy. He will be tied to every aspect of the Mormon religion, which people widely believe to be extremely socially conservative, anti-alcohol and such. Mormonism will be on trial this fall. Mitt will be stuck between a rock and a hard place, either repeatedly denouncing his own religion, or backing it up which would necessarily make him look like an arch-conservative, wiping out any of this supposed advantage he's supposed to have as a "moderate." There are so many ways to kill him on the Mormon issue alone, and that's even before you get into Bain Capital's bankrupting, layoffs and shady business ties, his flip-flopping, his "rich man" gaffes, etc. Romney's the most unelectable of the bunch.
Jedi, what do you say to those of us who believe Santorum for whatever bitterly regretable reason having to everything to do with his low IQ for reading even the obvious signals, and continuing to ignore any and all consideration of Newt Gingrich.
Seriously, Rick will be mortally wounded politically before his lightswitch snaps on to his own need for Newtron assistance.
Newt needs none of this. He knows his delegates and is holding them together FOR Santorum, otherwise, Newt can go back to work at home, cut loose his delegates, wave bye to those who promptly leave for the Romney camp.
It’s Rick who doesn’t have a job. Newt has one.
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