Posted on 05/27/2015 9:31:42 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sometime between now and the Republican nomination, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will enjoy a rally in the polls — nationally, and maybe in New Hampshire.
Maybe the first debates will provide the Christie boom. Maybe he'll master the town halls in the Granite State. There's also a decent chance the boom will be fleeting. But if you write off Christie after his fall from front-runner status in 2013, you're making a mistake.
By no definition is Chris Christie the current Republican front-runner. He hasn't led in a poll since last July. His RealClearPolitics polling average puts him in 7th place.
But the pieces are in place for a Christie surge.
Most obvious, to anyone who's watched Christie speak, are his personality and speaking style. When it comes to stage presence, Marco Rubio is the only 2016 Republican who beats Christie. While Rubio provides soaring, moving rhetoric, Christie provides something possibly more attractive to the primary electorate: a supreme confidence that suggests aptitude and a bit of pugnacity.
At the recent GOP cattle call — the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Oklahoma City—Christie was probably the most impressive speaker. He framed his record in New Jersey as something of a turnaround story for a troubled state. He bragged about his battles with public sector unions. He cast himself in the same mold as Scott Walker — a candidate "who knows how to fight, and knows how to win."
This will play well in New Hampshire town halls.
Christie in Oklahoma City attacked President Obama more forcefully than any other candidate. He has to, because so many conservatives hold in their mind the image of Christie hugging Obama after tropical storm Sandy, and they believe that hug helped Obama win re-election in 2012. Christie will spend the next few months un-hugging Obama. You can even expect him to do so in the debates.
Christie also focused on how he would beat Hillary Clinton, contrasting his straight-talking manner to her dishonest, opaque, unprincipled, slippery and evasive ways.
Conservative attendees in Oklahoma City were impressed and pleasantly surprised by a man they had previously brushed off as a moderate Republican in name only.
In private, he's just as compelling. Regularly, Republican donors emerge from small chats with Christie impressed by the governor's intelligence, energy and political savvy. And this may be part of his most important asset: access to money.
Christie is the only presidential candidate (besides George Pataki) from the northeast, which is where the money is. In his 2009 and 2013 campaigns, Christie raked in the Wall Street cash. If you're a Republican on Wall Street, look around: Christie is the only statewide elected official of your party in the entire Tri-State area.
Sheldon Adelson, the top Republican donor last election, says "I like Governor Christie," and has provided free flights to Christie. Paul Singer, the active Republican donor, has hosted fundraisers for two Republicans this cycle: Christie and Jeb Bush.
The comparison to Bush is one of the biggest reasons to expect a Christie surge. Bush and Christie both occupy the establishment region of the party. This side of the party provided much of Mitt Romney's support four years ago. Currently this wing favors Bush over Christie, judging by polls.
But watch Bush on the campaign trail, and he doesn't come across as a strong candidate. Nobody looked worse in Oklahoma City than Jeb. It almost seemed as if Jeb didn't want to be running. Similarly, someone who took the race seriously would probably prepare for a question about the Iraq War — especially if that candidate's brother had launched the war. But Jeb clearly had not prepared for that question before Fox News' Megyn Kelly asked it.
Jeb's 15 percent nationally and double digits in New Hampshire are not a sign of strong support, but of name recognition. As the campaign heats up, expect that figure to drop. The Jeb backers will scatter amidst this crowded field, but Christie will likely be the biggest beneficiary of Jeb's collapse.
All these factors point toward a Christie surge, following some more town halls and the first debates.
A word of caution for Christie: If 2012 taught us anything, it's that surges can be brief, and that they expose the surging candidate to the harsh light of a curious political press — just ask Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. In that glaring light, Christie has plenty of blemishes that will show.
But at least Christie isn't likely to spend the rest of the campaign in the shadows.
A lot of candidates will have booms before all is said and done.
Delusional. Christies record in New Jersey when examined carefully does not hold up.
Has to do with eating a lot of beans.
He’s basically doing this in hopes of attracting some attention and getting the Attorney General position. But I think it’s zero chance that Walker or Rubio or Cruz would bring him into the Cabinet (Bush might though).
Bruce Springsteen wouldn’t play for him. Much like every other heal the world make it a better place liberal entertainer. They have empty lives.
You can still enjoy his music and talent.
Christie has about as much chance of being POTUS as carrot top or Kim Kardashian.
I like the guy personally and would like to hang out with him when he gets some luxury box seats with Jerry at Cowboys games. :-)
he would make a good US Attorney General in the cabinet. If he doesn’t get that gig he can make $25,000 per speech.
They gotta keep him out of the cabinet,or there won’t be anything left to eat
Wonder how much was promised to the author of this article by Christie?
Free ice cream at Dairy Queen for a year, and membership to jelly of the month club
Debate will only be a BOOM for Cruz.
The only boom Christie will have is after a four chili dog lunch.
Rofl. that pretty much describes me two years ago. the embrace with Obummer sealed it for me.
like I said before, I’ve converted my brother and two sisters into forgetting the “Cruz is too conservative for the general public” nonsense and now they support him. Working on my nephews and nieces, that is my upcoming challenge
He, Bush, Huckabee and a few others should leave.
Huh? In a culture obsessed with obesity and weight loss he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. And the Obama love-fest was total buzz kill. He’s a soggy Cheerio.
It’s called farting.
Chris Christie jumped the shark when he cuddled up to Obama after Sandy. I wanted to retch.
I’d say dog catcher, but I’m worried he would eat them
Actually, that was my first draft but I changed it as I did not want to insult the dog.
Boom? Sorry... He is a bust! The day he hugged Obama was the day he wrote his political obituary. Republicans put up with a lot, but hugging that man during a national election was treason.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.