Where It Counts: Huck, Cruz, Walker Lead

The conventional wisdom shows Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul strongly competing for the Republican presidential nomination. But a close analysis of the latest Quinnipiac University National Poll indicates that with strong elements of the Party’s right wing, they perform poorly in comparison to Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker and, for now, Ben Carson.

Among all Republican voters, the poll shows Bush, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee and Carson are all tied at 10 percent each while Paul lags at 7 percent and Cruz at 6 percent.

But an analysis of the three key conservative groups that drive the nominating process tells a different story:

The tea party and the evangelicals are the two most important groups in a Republican primary.

Cruz dominates the tea party field and does well among evangelicals. Huckabee dominates the evangelical voter base and does well among tea party voters. Walker scores well among the tea party crowd but does poorly with evangelicals.

By contrast, neither Paul nor Rubio trigger much enthusiasm in either group and do poorly among very conservative voters. Their poor showing among these key groups would seem to indicate that they might find it difficult to motivate their voters.

For Jeb Bush, his tepid showing with evangelicals and tea party backers may not be lethal. His prestige and money will likely even the odds down the road.

The poll begs the question of whether Ben Carson’s support is real. Coming in with the top tier among all primary voters and first among very conservative Republicans, indicates a great deal of latent power. Whether he can sustain that is another question. How much of his support is biographic reflecting his celebrity status as a role model/doctor? Can he transfer it to a political context?

We will see, but the poor showing of Rubio and Paul and the strong appeal to staunch conservatives of Huckabee, Cruz and Walker is the real story of this early date in the contest.

“And someone who thinks they are supporting Huckabee “as a conservative” is nothing but a useful tool for the Karl Rove Jeb Bush Republican Establishment.”

OK, if you want to degrade to “generalities.” Then = Anyone who keeps putting forth the “nonsense” you spout is a “morally mental degenerate” that is a useful tool for the homosexual agenda and the moral degrading of America.

I AM A CRUZ SUPPORTER. These insane attacks on Huckabee are wrong headed and counterproductive. They don’t actually hurt Mike Huckabee, and what’s worse is they bring down Ted Cruz’s chances.

Huckabee IS A SOCIAL/MORAL CONSERVATIVE. He may not be in the other categories of what are called “conservative” like fiscal issues or the size of government, etc. But telling “primarily” social/moral conservatives that you are not “conservative” is foolishness. Insulting Mike’s supporters is foolishness.

“However, prerogatives (i.e. “his B.S., or “Huckster”) against Huckabee - in my opinion are a direct attack on truly morally conservative evangelical Christians....especially Southern Baptist ones.”

I’m sorry if you don’t like the terminology I use, but I’m a Baptist too and I don’t see these as attacks on Baptists simply because Huckabee is a Baptist — I just happen to believe he’s not being honest with people about who he is.

Yes, I do emphasize why I think Cruz is better, but there are things Huckabee has done and said that cannot be ignored. First off, he grew the size and scope of the AK government and raised taxes several times, and recently he’s said he’d do nothing about curbing the growth of entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare, a problem that will bankrupt our country. So fiscally, he’s about as far from the kind of POTUS we desperately need at this time in our history.

Beyond that, during the time he’s had his TV show, he’s had a tendency to bring on establishment figures like Mitch McConnell and promote their candidacies while at the same time claiming to stand for the “little guy.” I don’t know what you call that, but I call it dishonest.

Furthermore, he recently said (with a straight face) that the current GOP senators running for POTUS ought to resign their positions. Not only is this statement utterly absurd, it is also highly inconsistent with his past actions.

For example, did Huckabee ever demand Senator McCain resign in 2008? All I heard on the subject during that cycle was crickets. Also, what about his own re-election campaigns in AK? Did he stop being governor while running for another term? Of course not, nor should he have!!

But recently he comes up with this new self-serving standard that benefits...him and...surprise, surprise — the establishment choice for this cycle Jeb Bush — for whom he is most likely running interference. I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.

I use terms like B.S. and Huckster here are FR because the folks here are very discerning and what I have stated above is not new information to most of them — most here understand who Huckabee really is.

For those I talk to on the outside, I try to simply lay out the facts and explain why he’s not worth supporting — and why Cruz is much better. I can’t convince all, but I will try to persuade as many as I can because the future of our country hangs in the balance and we can’t afford to nominate the wrong candidate.

“the establishment choice for this cycle Jeb Bush — for whom he is most likely running interference.”

I am not here to be an apologist for Mike Huckabee. However, I have to say that you are spreading the same delusional lies I see others spread here that Huckabee is working for Bush or some other candidate. That is bearing false witness and you should be ashamed. Mike Huckabee - like EVERY other candidate - is working for himself. ALL of them have large egos (to include my guy Ted) or they would NOT seek high office. Yes, some do have higher purposes than merely their egos, but that “self serving” tendency is present with ALL of them. That is the fallen nature of man.

Also, you SHOULD be concerned about the language you use and spreading falsehoods. Especially IF you are a real Christian and a Baptist one. Don’t slander a brother.

And whether you believe it or not, Huckabee is often libeled on this forum because he is a Southern Baptist Minister - and this is the primary reason (the Elmer Gantry analogies are especially telling). Later on you will see Ted Cruz catch it for being associated with Southern Baptists. This will especially be true when it comes from the Libertarians that hang out here.

“I think he’s running only because he believes this is a natural career progression for him but I get the feeling his heart’s just not in it. “

I felt that way about his father, and his brother. Like they were tired of it and bored by it.

In particular, I felt that GWB let his awful press secretary, McClellen, go out and embarrass all Republicans with a miserable, sorry performance, day after day.

I spent some years in business management, and you CAN see when you screw up. But with that group, it was like they had given up.

Iraq turned to crap, oh well, just run out the clock. His poll numbers in the final years indicated this, too.

“I am not here to be an apologist for Mike Huckabee. However, I have to say that you are spreading the same delusional lies I see others spread here that Huckabee is working for Bush or some other candidate. That is bearing false witness and you should be ashamed.”

Take note that I said “likely” running interference for Jeb Bush. I can’t know that for sure of course, because no one knows the heart. However, based on the facts I laid out, none of which you disputed, it is not hard to conclude that there is at least a fair chance he is. He did similarly in 2008 when the establishment choice was McCain and he made no demand that he resign his position. I think making a demand of other senators this time around, especially given how it conveniently benefits him and the establishment candidate is legitimate grounds to at least speculate on what his motivations may be and factor that into your calculations about his overall character and candidacy. Sorry, but I fail to see how that is “bearing false witness”.

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