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Why It’s So Hard to Predict What Happens With Trump’s Supporters When He Drops Out
Slate ^ | July 31, 2015 | Josh Voorhees, senior writer, Iowa City

Posted on 08/03/2015 2:06:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Donald Trump may seem invincible right now, but his current run can’t last. Even if the belligerent billionaire and current GOP front-runner doesn’t implode on the debate stage next week or on the campaign trail next month, the fundamentals of American politics will still catch up to him: At some point the GOP field will narrow and an establishment favorite will consolidate enough support to knock Trump from his perch. Eventually, that means he will exit a nominating battle he cannot win.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Washington parlor game of predicting how Trump’s campaign will end is now turning into one about what will happen with his supporters when it does.

There is no shortage of possibilities. Writing in the National Journal on Friday, for example, political analyst Charlie Cook pegs Chris Christie and Ted Cruz’s camps as likely homes for Trump’s backers once their first choice is out of the race. In the Washington Post, meanwhile, James Holmann calls it a “jump ball” before ultimately suggesting Trump’s loss could be Mike Huckabee’s gain. While the predictions vary, the rationale behind them is usually the same: Whoever wins the Trump sweepstakes will be someone who shares his anti-establishment anger....

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; chrischristie; dds; election2016; joshvoorhees; newyork; slate; tds; tedcruz; trump
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To: KGeorge
 Ideology – Trump leads Walker 27% to 16% among very conservative voters; has 22% support among somewhat conservative voters to 14% for Bush and 12% for Walker; and takes 28% of the moderate to liberal voter compared to 20% for Bush.  Tea Party – Tea Party supporters back Trump (35%) over Walker (15%) and Cruz (11%). Non-Tea Party supporters split their top support between Trump (20%) and Bush (16%). excerpt from Hot Air....Trump is surging across a broad spectrum of voters, including the Tea-Party.
101 posted on 08/03/2015 8:07:41 PM PDT by entropy12 (We need a president who can say "you are fired", not one who wants to please every one.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

How in the world does this man (Trump) represent conservative values? I don’t get it.
-—from a poster on Hot Air

Who said he does?
Just destroying the DC Uniparty machine is all that’s good right now. 2016 is waaaay aways.
-—answer from another poster on Hot Air


102 posted on 08/03/2015 8:18:59 PM PDT by entropy12 (We need a president who can say "you are fired", not one who wants to please every one.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, that is quite a Condescending Headline.

Trump is the Frontrunner at this point and they keep bringing this crap up, absolutely amazing. We have 15 Months until D Day and this is starting up already.

IF Trump drops out it’s Cruz, who else?

Do they really think that Crispy or the Huckster would benefit? LOL


103 posted on 08/03/2015 8:33:19 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative (THEY LIVE, and we're the only ones wearing the Sunglasses... RIP Roddy Piper.)
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To: entropy12
I am not arguing with you. I am NOT ATTACKING YOUR CANDIDATE whoever it is.

Do you know what a tagline is?

104 posted on 08/03/2015 8:44:47 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40

I seldom look at tag lines. Too many interesting posts to read on the forum, and not enough time in my busy life.


105 posted on 08/03/2015 8:57:31 PM PDT by entropy12 (We need a president who can say "you are fired", not one who wants to please every one.)
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To: entropy12
I seldom look at tag lines. Too many interesting posts to read on the forum, and not enough time in my busy life.

Yet more illogical reasoning from a Trump supporter.

If would have taken you a small fraction of the time to look at my tagline as it did for you to type "your candidate whoever it is" twice in your last post.

Stay uninformed, Trump is relying on it.

106 posted on 08/03/2015 9:01:23 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40

Cruz is a great senator with almost 3 years senate experience. However I do not see how he beats Bush if Trump drops out. He has never out-polled Bush on any polls. Whereas Trump beats Bush in every poll for 4 weeks and gaining on Bush with every poll.

If Trump wins nomination, he should pick Cruz as running mate. It balances the ticket geographically and business-politician combination.


107 posted on 08/03/2015 9:26:35 PM PDT by entropy12 (We need a president who can say "you are fired", not one who wants to please every one.)
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To: TexasGunLover
Another one of y'all eh? You think Cruz will be in it within 6 months of election?

Exactly. Cruz will be out of the race before Trump is.

108 posted on 08/03/2015 9:38:22 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: Hugin
Trump said flat out that as a businessman he didn’t want to slam someone then come back a year later looking for their support on getting a project done. So he always said nice things about all politicians, and gave them money. Now he’s in politics, and he’s being critical about politicians. The rules are different in business and politics.

Yep they aggressively panhandled begging Trump.

109 posted on 08/03/2015 9:40:34 PM PDT by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: entropy12
You seem to be hung up on polling.

That considered, Real Clear Politics averages show Cruz coming closer to beating Hillary than Trump does.

Cruz v Hillary.

Trump v Hillary

110 posted on 08/03/2015 9:40:49 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: Drew68

If Cruz aNd Trump are both gone I may not bother voting


111 posted on 08/03/2015 9:50:36 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: South40

Matthew 15:8, South40. How many people have been driven away from their very faith by cherry picking & hypocrisy? (I mean doing *the exact opposite* of what the Lord specifically tells us to do & not do. What else- what entity, does that?) Please look it up. It’s really disturbing.
Does your pastor/ minister really never talk about the fact that evil exists in this world, always has & always will, until the Lord Returns? We aren’t admonished to eradicate it, but to resist it, as individuals. Don’t you know that?

The democrats’ cheating aside, “social conservatives” put 0bama in the WH in 2012. Santorum was the anointed then. Would Newt Gingrich have pushed for gays & transvestites in the military? Would he have had his AG sue private business owners for refusing to support a lifestyle their conscience forbade them? Would he have bought or blackmailed John Roberts into “gay marriage”?
You know the answer to that. Romney would have been just about as bad as 0bama. Santorum gave us Romney, just as Cruz would give us Jeb. Ultimately, a plurality of Americans won’t support him.

Social concerns are not Trump’s priority. They are not America’s priority, either. He is focused on America’s SURVIVAL. So are his supporters.
Your candidate has shown, currently, that he cannot be trusted to steward America’s- & the American people’s, economic well being. The same is true of the other candidates. His job is our national security.

Our president was never meant to be the Christian equivalent of the ayatollah.

You guys are pulling out every trick you can think of to try & dissuade people from Donald Trump- believing that they might change to your candidate. It’s dishonest. It’s disingenuous, & it makes you- & him, look really really bad.


112 posted on 08/03/2015 10:27:37 PM PDT by KGeorge (Hell no. We ain't forgettin'.)
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To: entropy12

Lookin good!


113 posted on 08/03/2015 10:28:16 PM PDT by KGeorge (Hell no. We ain't forgettin'.)
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To: KGeorge
Santorum gave us Romney, just as Cruz would give us Jeb. Ultimately, a plurality of Americans won’t support him.

Whatever you say, Mr. Kreskin.

One thing is certain, you are one of the most uninformed Trump supporters I have encountered, and your post 96 proves it. But don't change; that is just what lifelong liberal Donald Trump wants and needs you to be.

114 posted on 08/03/2015 10:44:14 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40

Tthe order of elections is........

Primary comes first.

General Election Comes later.

Logic: someone who can not win primaries, has ZERO chance of winning in general.

2 months ago Trump was at bottom in GOP polls.
In 2 months he has zoomed past and leapfrogged all republican candidates. Now has a huge lead on all others.
The SC poll just came out and Trump has zoomed 30 points ahead. Few weeks ago very few in SC heard of Trump candidacy.

After Trump wins GOP nomination, he will beat Hillary just like Reagan beat Carter.


115 posted on 08/03/2015 10:49:10 PM PDT by entropy12 (We need a president who can say "you are fired", not one who wants to please every one.)
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To: entropy12
Thanks but I am well-aware of how the primary process works.

Logic: someone who can not win primaries, has ZERO chance of winning in general.

lol! Nothing personal E, but you speaking of logic while supporting a lifelong liberal for the Republican nominee is, frankly, one of the most humorous things I have read all day.

Few weeks ago very few in SC heard of Trump candidacy

Do you seriously believe the good folks in SC don't watch the news and did not see and hear both Trump's June announcement and the widespread media coverage of it since? Wow. I've seen you write some bizarre things on these pages but that is one of the most bizarre by far. Here's a clue for you; people in SC, and contrary to your apparent belief, do watch the news.

After Trump wins GOP nomination, he will beat Hillary just like Reagan beat Carter.

Trump is an inarticulate moron. He had better enjoy whatever popularity he has now because his abysmal performances at the debates are surely going to make Rick Perry look like a genius.

116 posted on 08/03/2015 11:12:03 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40
Trump is an inarticulate moron. He had better enjoy whatever popularity he has now because his abysmal performances at the debates are surely going to make Rick Perry look like a genius.

That may turn out to be the least prophetic post in the 20+ year history of the internet.

Do you really believe that?
117 posted on 08/03/2015 11:34:11 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (The next Ronald Reagan will not be a Republican, but rather a former Republican)
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To: jjsheridan5
I believe lifelong liberal Donald Trump has the ability to fool some people with his rhetoric when in reality, he is blathering blowhard.

You're free to believe otherwise, of course.

118 posted on 08/03/2015 11:50:57 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40
I believe lifelong liberal Donald Trump has the ability to fool some people with his rhetoric when in reality, he is blathering blowhard.

I don't really blame you, and we will see. But I see no reason to think that he will do Rick Perry-bad in the "debates". Rick Perry was awful because he is an idiot. Trump may be a lot of things, but he is no idiot.

Either way, a friendly bet of nothing: Trump is doing even better in polling 2 weeks from now, than he is now. Because he has tapped a nerve that few can touch. As much as I like Cruz, he can't. But Trump can, and is doing so. Just don't forget, that while Reagan was conservative, the Reagan coalition was made up of a lot of people who are not ideological, and don't neatly fit into categories. Trump is winning them over.
119 posted on 08/03/2015 11:57:25 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (The next Ronald Reagan will not be a Republican, but rather a former Republican)
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To: jjsheridan5
Rick Perry was awful because he is an idiot.

On that we can agree.

120 posted on 08/04/2015 1:12:10 AM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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