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Why It’s So Hard to Predict What Happens With Trump’s Supporters When He Drops Out
Slate ^ | July 31, 2015 | Josh Voorhees, senior writer, Iowa City

Posted on 08/03/2015 2:06:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Donald Trump may seem invincible right now, but his current run can’t last. Even if the belligerent billionaire and current GOP front-runner doesn’t implode on the debate stage next week or on the campaign trail next month, the fundamentals of American politics will still catch up to him: At some point the GOP field will narrow and an establishment favorite will consolidate enough support to knock Trump from his perch. Eventually, that means he will exit a nominating battle he cannot win.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Washington parlor game of predicting how Trump’s campaign will end is now turning into one about what will happen with his supporters when it does.

There is no shortage of possibilities. Writing in the National Journal on Friday, for example, political analyst Charlie Cook pegs Chris Christie and Ted Cruz’s camps as likely homes for Trump’s backers once their first choice is out of the race. In the Washington Post, meanwhile, James Holmann calls it a “jump ball” before ultimately suggesting Trump’s loss could be Mike Huckabee’s gain. While the predictions vary, the rationale behind them is usually the same: Whoever wins the Trump sweepstakes will be someone who shares his anti-establishment anger....

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; chrischristie; dds; election2016; joshvoorhees; newyork; slate; tds; tedcruz; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The disenfranchised tend to remain disenfranchised, if their new-found hero drops out. They will not choose a RINO who represents the group that disenfranchised them.


41 posted on 08/03/2015 2:50:11 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion ( "Forward lies the crown, and onward is the goal.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If you take time to examine details of where Trump’s support comes from, it is ALL ACROSS EVERY CATEGORY.

Men, women, old, young, education levels, etc.

So id Trump drops out because RNC is unfair to him,
it is impossible to predict where his support will go.

More than likely Trump runs 3rd party and the supporters move with him. Idiots like Perry & Graham thought they would gain points by attacking Trump, UNPROVOKED.


42 posted on 08/03/2015 2:50:45 PM PDT by entropy12 (Make America Great Again!!! Go Trump/Cruz 2016....others are all in pocket of their rich donors.)
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To: entropy12

Well, he did offend Linda’s boyfriend.


43 posted on 08/03/2015 2:52:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: Norm Lenhart

“Yea and no conservative would ever vote for a liberal like Romney huh?”

If we are going with the, “Any Republican is better than a rat” argument then yes. We got burned by that in 08. We stayed home in 12.

Sure, let’s stay home again in 16 because 20 is right around the corner and then we can let the rat win reelection because in 24 it will be different.

Different.... Well, different in that by then there will no longer be elections. But that’s ok because we have the guns and we can have a revolution and take our country back. And in the process thousands will be killed. But that’s ok, because they will be martyrs who will reinvigorate us to our cause for freedom and liberty.

Or, we could just hold our nose, vote for the Republican, win the election and then change things from the grass roots.

Personally, I like the revolution idea.


44 posted on 08/03/2015 2:52:58 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats are parasites. It really is that simple.)
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To: South40

Actually Jeb Bush has a very good record as governor in Florida. He was a popular governor. However my top issue is illegals and because of that issue, he is unacceptable to me as president.


45 posted on 08/03/2015 2:53:40 PM PDT by entropy12 (Make America Great Again!!! Go Trump/Cruz 2016....others are all in pocket of their rich donors.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

However, I somehow doubt that the LIV read Slate (just deranged liberals). But the mainstream media pounding this idea will very much have an effect. When People magazine starts saying it, then there’s trouble.


46 posted on 08/03/2015 2:54:51 PM PDT by JustaCowgirl (the left has redefined the word 'racism' to mean any disagreement with any liberal about any topic)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

But ‘we’ didn’t stay home. The numbers proved that.

Revolution is inevitable/ Or CW2. We cannot is as on country with opposed ideals/population split evenly.


47 posted on 08/03/2015 2:55:26 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: TexasGunLover

“Another one of y’all eh? You think Cruz will be in it within 6 months of election? If that’s the case, I bet you believe Sarah Palin will be in it too... LOL...”

Sarah who? She’s old news. Cruz can win for one reason. There are enough moderate Republicans who are sick and tired of the government and the establishment.

Cruz will win primaries. And if he doesn’t it is because someone won it with 12% and the rest was split among the other 16 candidates.


48 posted on 08/03/2015 2:56:24 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats are parasites. It really is that simple.)
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To: South40
Trump Smiling IT'S STILL DONALD: Trump is now in a commanding lead among Republcian presidential candidates, polling 25 per cent while his nearest rival Jeb Bush is stuck at 12 Trump holding a rifle. Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump holds … with Ronald Reagan

with Ted Cruz


49 posted on 08/03/2015 2:56:48 PM PDT by entropy12 (Make America Great Again!!! Go Trump/Cruz 2016....others are all in pocket of their rich donors.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I still do not see why many are predicting Trump will soon be out of the picture, be it wishful thinking or what, I do not know.

But if he does drop out, his supporters certainly will not go to some jacka$$ RINO.

Trump has done an outstanding job of bringing issues to the forefront the GOPe want to keep quiet on. The GOPe has said screw you to all that gave them the House & Senate. The average voter, including the low info ones, knows they are all corrupted with lobbying money and other forms of bribery. The voter knows it’s all just one Uniparty of thugs running DC using their EPA & IRS strong arms. It’s disgusting, a cry baby drunk ramrodding the House and a milk toast whimp running the Senate.

If Trump does fold, his supporters will undoubtedly go to someone like Cruz. If the GOPe is successful in keeping Cruz out, then all those voters will stay home like they have for the last two prez elections, only in greater numbers.


50 posted on 08/03/2015 2:59:50 PM PDT by redfreedom (All it takes for evil to win is for good people to do nothing - that's how the left took over.)
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To: entropy12
he is unacceptable to me as president.

Well that's good to hear. But read the quote. He was not unacceptable as president to lifelong liberal Donald Trump.

51 posted on 08/03/2015 3:00:43 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: Syncro

Amen!


52 posted on 08/03/2015 3:02:11 PM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: Hugin

That’s an interesting take that the situation is reversed from 2012. I have not gone back to see a poll to poll comparison of then and now. But the consistency of Mr Trump’s gains in the progression of polls is something I don’t remember seeing before. As others have pointed out, this has the feel of a revolution.


53 posted on 08/03/2015 3:04:32 PM PDT by lovesdogs
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To: Hugin

The truth is Donald is in the position Mitt was last time. The anti-establishment conservatives are rapidly coalescing around Trump so that he will win most early primaries with a plurality. Meanwhile the GOPe is split between Jeb, Rubio, Crispy, and the rest. I could see them going from one to another trying to find someone who can beat Trump, just as conservatives did in 2012. The real question is where to the Carson and Cruz people go once it’s obvious their guys aren’t winning any primaries?


Good points. Looks to me like Trump is toning down his rhetoric a bit and solidifying his lead.

Walker is the only other leading candidate with no beltway/Bush stink on him so I’d say he’s the biggest threat to Trump at this point.


54 posted on 08/03/2015 3:04:45 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: entropy12
You once inserted into a discussion that fact that Trump was invited to speak at CPAC in what was an obvious yet lame attempt to prove he is somehow conservative. Now you've posted an image of him with President Reagan for what I can only assume to be the same purpose. Employing your "logic", these men must be conservative also.

Does this do it for you too?


55 posted on 08/03/2015 3:07:34 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40

Conservatives search for Trump’s actual conservativism

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2XMgNL3sZY


56 posted on 08/03/2015 3:08:14 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: grania
I think even Trump is surprised at the support he is getting!

He may have started this as a lark, but I think now he thinks he can really win it!

57 posted on 08/03/2015 3:09:19 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: TexasGunLover

It’s becoming apparent that Cruz has too much beltway stink on him to break out from 5% in the polls.

He’s fighting the good fight but all those triple team RINO/MSM/DEM attacks have taken a toll on his POTUS viability.


58 posted on 08/03/2015 3:09:33 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

an establishment favorite will consolidate enough support


Not going to vote for any of The Cheap Labor Express Candidates.

They all want to Comprehensively Screw Americans Out Of Their Country”


59 posted on 08/03/2015 3:11:09 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: lodi90

Apparent to people that never wanted a conservative president maybe.


60 posted on 08/03/2015 3:12:17 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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