Statespoll.com does a superb job of adjusting samples to current reality

http://statespoll.com/post/150477326830/colorado-trump-vs-hillary-vs-johnson-vs-stein ^ | 9/28/2016 | Statespoll.com

[LS]

Here is an example of his latest work on the Emerson CO poll where Trump is supposedly up 3:

Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary vs Johnson vs Stein. Emerson, 9/9-9/13, 600 LV

Results: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 38.3% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%

Adjusted: TRUMP 45.1% | Hillary 35.1% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%

1. This poll oversampled DEM. (Page 14)

Democrats 34.2% | Republican 29.4% | Independent 36.4%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_784e507857734ddb84b32e9d6ee1022c.pdf

2. Realistic Party ID % is - DEM 31.5% | REP 31% | Ind+Other 37.5%

1) Colorado: Party Affiliation (July,2016). Rep = DEM Active + inactive = Total 3.65 Million Registered Voters.

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2016/July/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf

Rep: 988k(Active) + 148k(Inactive) = 1.13 Million (31%)

DEM: 980k(Active) + 170k(Inactive) = 1.15 Milion (31.5%)

3. Generally, Nowadays TRUMP gets 85%ish support from Republican,

10%ish support from Democrats.

1) So this poll should be fixed as D: -2.7%, R: +1.6%

So numbers should be fixed like, (85%-10%)x4.3%=3.2%

TRUMP +3.2%, Hillary -3.2%

Then, TRUMP 45.1% | Hillary 35.1% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%

[LS]

He doesn't always make it work in favor of Trump, but he does apply 2012 turnouts and current demographic data.

I think the election will look MUCH closer to what he has.

[RoseofTexas]

Wow!

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Good stuff, but let’s not get back into what we did last election, relying on “unskewed” polls

[LS]

Well, just because it wasn’t right last time doesn’t mean it’s not right.

Cankles WILL NOT draw black votes like Obama did. Fact.
Cankles WILL NOT draw the youth/Millennials like Obama did. Fact.
Early votes/absentees in FL are off the charts, already providing more than margin of victory if all else stays the same as 2012.
Voter registration changes in OH, PA, IA, FL, NC, and NV are massive. In OH alone this would be the difference from 2012.

So, it’s wrong to compare this kind of analysis to 2012. ALL polling is based on assumptions. The question is, whose are right? I think this guy is closer than the “traditional” media cause they are stuck in 2008.

[Mjreagan]

Ditto

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Hope you’re right. You very well may be

[LS]

Well, ask yourself this: does Trump in any way resemble Mittens?

Aside from two very late large rallies, did Mittens EVER create this kind of excitement? Were blacks EVER talking about voting for Mittens? Did it ever look like Dems would desert Obama to vote for Mittens?

No, no, and no. Our entire hope in 2012 was that D turnout would be low, and R turnout high. Even at that, Mittens lost by a very low 470,000 votes in five states.

In 2016, I don’t really care if the Dems DO turn out 87%, because I’m convinced 10% of that vote will go to Trump. I think most of the neverTrumpers have had their tantrum and will turn out. And I think states that never were realistically in play even with G. W. Bush are in fact real possibilities, including Michigan, Wisconsin (obviously Iowa, which is already in Trump’s column), and so on.

The bottom line is, do you think Trump can get 500,000 more votes than Mittens did in five states? Or can he flip 250,000 of those votes? I think the answer is an easy yes.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

I agree, but I try to be a realist. Romney didn't have a 35-40% favorability rating. Romney was so milquetoast and middle of the road, that he didn't have the left and the media despise him the way Trump is hated

Look, we have some powerful forces against us. As we get closer the election, the media will be in overdrive against Trump, Bubba and both Obamas will be campaigning non-stop against Trump... Trump has MUCH more excitement than she does, but those other forces are very powerful

Let me play devil's advocate... Why isn't any poll picking up less than D+4, not even the Trump friendly Breitbart (Gravis)? I learned the hard way in previous elections... Discounting all polls is a fool's errand. We can discount the obvious ones (NBC/WSJ, ABC/WashPost, CBS/NYTimes), Monmouth), but not all.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

By the way, for the record, I believe Trump will pull it out in the end... but D+4 or D+5 is my estimate. He’ll pull it out in spite of that handicap.

[bigbob]

Polls are tools for rigging the system. Just ignore them.

[LS]

Oh, I think D+4 is realistic in many states (not FL, where it’s absolutely even), and NC is more D+10.

However, remember a poll shouldn’t measure VOTER REGISTRATION but should measure expected turnout. That’s why they always drift from “adults” early on to “registered voters” mid season then finally to “likely”.

But again, turnout is turnout, and we aren’t seen any evidence anywhere of D+5 turnout.

But Rasmussen seems to have it right. USC has it right. UPI has it right.

[LS]

Yes, but again, you say “in spite of.” The D+5 is either a registration number or a 2012 number. It isn’t any real-world projection of who will vote. It’s lib hope.

So Trump will pull it out because the models are looking at 2012 and we are nothing like 2012.

[Frederick303]

A assumption of a generic D +5 is not a bad assumption to start with, but it looks like the least D ship tot he republican side will be on the order of 6 % It could be more 7 or 8 %

On the republican side the worst case seems to be around 2 % of never-Trump types voting Hillary, and that s the worst case. Here is what the generic polling data seems to indicate:

T H Other
_____________________________________
.38 Dem
H .86 x .38 — .3268
T .06 x .38 .0228 —
O .08 x .38 -— -— .0304

.33 Republican
T .89 x .33 .2937 —
H .02 x .33 — .0066
O .08 x .33 — — .0264

.29 Independent
T .54 x .29 .1566
H .38 x .29 — .1102
O .08 x.29 -— -— .0232
________________________________________________________
Total

47.31% 44.36% 8.00%

Or trump having an almost 3 % more voters than Hillary.

[HamiltonJay]

Using 2012 as your baseline is a problem, its better than the chaos of the insanely overweighted polls to Dems that get published, but 2012 is not going to be how 2016 turnout will be. Dems won’t see nearly the turnout they got in 12.

[pabianice]

Hate to repeat it, but... in 1896 William Jennings Bryan drew 750,000 people to a rally on Boston Common. He then lost the election.

[mad_as_he$$]

I am not seeing much Dem enthusiasm around Northern Nevada. 2008,2012 there was door knockers walking my area every other week or so. This year none. Hillary signs are few and far between. Obama signs were numerous during both of his runs.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Trump will pull it out cause he’s the agent of change, is the better candidate, and she’s immensely unlikeable. :)

[LS]

He didn’t do it 4 times a week, every week for a year. Bad example.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Ras is out tomorrow. All polling over 2 days, post-debate. Hoping he keeps his +5 from last Thu!

[KC_Conspirator]

Meh. No offense, but this sounds a bunch like “unskewed polls” which everyone here believed and they were incredibility wrong.