Posted on 10/19/2016 1:15:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.
Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."
The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.
"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."
Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.
Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.
Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House.
"So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word."
Please, please, please.....
Thie election is making my mom very nervous (I am trying not to worry). I hope this guy is right.
1,728,000 seconds
28,800 minutes
480 hours
20 days
2 weeks and 6 days
His model has 1960 correct as that election was won by cheating.
“Outlier” - MSM /s
The communist Hillary Clinton must be stopped at all costs.
Make Calls for Trump in Florida as that is the only way to stop this communist
Go Trump!
Our Freedom and civilization itself is at stake
Sorry. I’m just not feeling all that optimistic. I have no doubt that the silent majority supports Trump, I just know the Democrats are a cheating machine.
I thought the same thing.
Nobody wants more Obama but in a pantsuit.
Think about this folks, who do the American people want to hear talking to them over the next 4-8 years, Hillary or Trump?
I think Americans find Trump far more engaging.
The model correctly predicted every election except the 1960 one. I wonder why.
I keep remembering the media early on saying Trump
had the edge on “likeability”.....THE MEDIA
Then like a lightswitch,within two days they had Hilda leading...they got the message
Chicago and South Texas.
Just had lunch with 86 year old recently widowed Aunt. She’s voting Trump despite knowing that her husband of nearly 65 years would roll over in his grave if he knew. She said she just couldn’t vote for THAT woman even if Trump is lewd (her description). She’s been hanging up on pollsters and other political calls.
I wonder if his model takes into account massive cheating and voter fraud by and on behalf of the Democrats...
My poor sister is a nervous wreck. At the age of 50 this is the first election she’s ever been passionate about. She’s a vocal and enthusiastic Trumpster.
I knew about Chicago. What about South Texas?
And the reason the 1960 election failed to predict accurately is because Kennedy’s father stole it.
If I remember correctly he manufactured enough votes in Chicago and Texas to throw those states to his son.
Please tell your Aunt she is a wonderful woman to see through all the BS about Trump and to vote for him despite the media blitz against him.
Good for her!
Lyndon Baines Johnson.
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