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Unemployment rate dips to 5.6%; 112,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January
CNBC | Friday, February 6, 2004

Posted on 02/06/2004 5:30:40 AM PST by JohnHuang2

I'm deeply, deeply saddened at the news


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: busheconomy; doomed; tdids; thebusheconomy
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Friday, February 6, 2004

Quote of the Day by river rat

1 posted on 02/06/2004 5:30:41 AM PST by JohnHuang2
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To: JohnHuang2
Deeply, deeply saddened bump!
2 posted on 02/06/2004 5:31:46 AM PST by FreedomPoster (This space intentionally blank)
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To: JohnHuang2
LOL and so is Pelosi.... Teddy is drinking already this morning which is causing a run on Massachusetts liquor stores.....
3 posted on 02/06/2004 5:33:44 AM PST by b4its2late (When you do a good deed, get a receipt in case heaven is like the IRS.)
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To: JohnHuang2
but but but... this is less than the 165000 (money.cnn.com)that had been hoped for/expected, so this is another Bush failure!
4 posted on 02/06/2004 5:35:19 AM PST by Paradox (Cogito ergo Doom.)
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To: b4its2late
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=afkL2ILwxCyI&refer=home

U.S. January Payrolls Rise 112,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 5.6%
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy added a smaller-than- expected 112,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent.

The increase was the largest in three years and follows a December gain of 16,000 that was more than estimated last month. The construction and retail industries added jobs in January, while factories eliminated positions. The jobless rate was the lowest in two years and down from 5.7 percent in December.

Some companies are beginning to add workers after the economy expanded in the second half of 2003 at the fastest pace in two decades. More hiring may be needed to help boost spending and lift the economy by raising incomes. Slack job growth keeps wage increases tame and gives Federal Reserve policy makers room to hold their target interest rate steady.

``The labor market is still improving, but the improvement is gradual,'' said Joseph Abate, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, before the report. ``It's very difficult to see wage pressures building. The Fed will be on hold for the rest of the year because inflation is so muted.'' Lehman had forecast a 90,000 rise in payrolls last month.

Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 175,000 last month following a previously reported increase of 1,000 in December, according to the median of 69 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.7 percent.

The household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a 496,000 increase in the number of people employed, accounting for the decline in the jobless rate. The rate declined even as 422,000 people entered the labor force in January.

Services

Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 105,000 last month after rising 32,000 in December. The increase, was led by a 76,000 increase in retail jobs.

Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, had expected a rebound in retail hiring last month because the government has trouble adjusting the numbers for seasonal variations during and after the Christmas holidays.

``Less December hiring by retailers and restaurants should translate into less January firing by these establishments, a positive swing factor,'' Soss said in a research report to clients. Soss had forecast payrolls would rise by 150,000.

Manufacturers cut 11,000 jobs last month, the 42nd straight decline since August 2000. The manufacturing workweek rose to 40.9 hours from 40.6 in December and overtime held at 4.6 hours.

Federal Reserve

The smaller-than-expected payroll gain may add to Democratic party criticism heading into the November election that President George W. Bush's economic initiatives, including tax cuts and increased spending on defense and homeland security, have failed to stimulate job growth.

Federal Reserve policy makers last week highlighted the disparity between weak payroll figures and other measures of employment, such as claims for unemployment insurance, that have been improving.

After leaving their target interest rate at 1 percent, the lowest since 1958, policy makers said, ``although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market.''

Fed Governor Ben Bernanke said in a speech yesterday that ``as the economy continues to grow, and as firms are unable to meet that demand without hiring, we will see some increase in employment. The exact timing of that is difficult to tell, but I am pretty confident we will see some big numbers fairly soon.''

Jobless Claims

Still, policy makers can be patient with monetary policy ``over the next few months'' because a ``significant'' rise in inflation this year or next is unlikely, Bernanke said.

First-time applications averaged 345,300 per week in the four weeks that correspond with the January employment survey, the fewest since February 2001, according to Labor Department figures. That compares with an average of 362,300 for the comparable period in December and 447,300 reached in the first week of May that was the highest in a year.

``We intend to expand our distribution force where the market is growing,'' said Edward Liddy, chief executive Allstate Corp., the second-biggest U.S. auto and home insurer, in a televised interview with Bloomberg News yesterday. ``But many of our agencies are also hiring support staff. So they are getting larger at the same time as we are getting larger. It's a great combination.''

The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said this week that fourth-quarter profit rose 70 percent as it raised prices, added customers and had investment gains. For others, it's wait-and-see.

Cisco

``After three years of being second-guessed and often missing, many CEOs are going to be unusually cautious in terms of both their capital spending and their hiring,'' said John Chambers, chief executive at Cisco Systems Inc., the world's largest maker of equipment to link computers, in a radio interview with Bloomberg News Tuesday. ``As the economy continues to gain strength and as some of their competitors start to move, then you'll see other CEOs, I think, begin to spend'' and hire, he said.

``As soon as we can get another 10 percent to 14 percent on revenue, then I will start to hire again,'' said Chambers.

The San Jose, California-based company this week that second- quarter earnings fell 27 percent.

Average weekly hours worked for all employees rose to 33.7 hours in January from 33.5 the prior month, today's report showed. Economists had expected hours would rise to 33.8 hours, according to the Bloomberg News survey.

Incomes

Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent, or 2 cents, after a 0.1 percent increase the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $522.01 last month from $518.25 in December.

Consumers are still spending. Chain-store sales climbed 5.8 percent last month, the biggest January increase since 1999, according to a report yesterday from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales rose a larger-than-expected 5.7 percent at Wal-Mart and they increased 3 percent at Gap.

The Labor Department also issued its annual benchmark revisions to employment figures with this report. The economy lost 700,000 jobs since the recession ended in November 2001. That compares with a previously estimated 1.1 million before the revisions.

The changes take into account adjustments to seasonal variation calculations that affected the statistics back to 1999. The report also added new information on the size of the labor force derived from the 2000 Census.

Hiring gains have been hindered by a surge in productivity that's averaged 4.6 percent in the last two years, the most since 1950-1951, according to figures from the Labor Department yesterday.

Among blacks, the unemployment rate rose to 10.5 percent from 10.3 percent in December. The jobless rate for Hispanics increased to 7.3 percent from 6.6 percent and for whites it fell to 4.9 percent from 5 percent.

For teenagers, unemployment rose to 16.7 percent last month from 16.1 percent. The jobless rate for women fell to 5 percent from 5.1 percent. The jobless rate for men decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.3 percent.



5 posted on 02/06/2004 5:35:22 AM PST by Pikamax
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To: b4its2late
Dems: Its the war(no one cares). Its the economy(its going up). Its the jobs(people are getting them).Ummm its the military service(nothing here). Its um um um .............
6 posted on 02/06/2004 5:36:31 AM PST by Baseballguy
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To: b4its2late
and so is Pelosi....

heh!

7 posted on 02/06/2004 5:37:24 AM PST by JohnHuang2
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To: All
Spin, spin, spin. All we're hear is how it was less than expected, ow these are "McJobs" and the usual negative spin the media gives us.
8 posted on 02/06/2004 5:37:57 AM PST by COEXERJ145
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To: JohnHuang2
In 2002, I was laid off and it took eight months to find another job. My contract expired at the end of December, and since then I've had seven serious job prospects, and have had five interviews with three companies this week. The IT job market is doing a lot better now.
9 posted on 02/06/2004 5:38:17 AM PST by dirtboy (We have come here not to insult Howard Dean, but to bury him...)
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To: JohnHuang2
Well, I am definitely looking in to changing my career from unemployed/underemployed/permatemp IT worker to fitness trainer. All the IT work is being outsourced to India, while the number of obese Americans continues to skyrocket.
10 posted on 02/06/2004 5:38:17 AM PST by techwench (let's see, format c: /u should fix it)
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To: All
Net revisions positive as well.
11 posted on 02/06/2004 5:38:24 AM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Paul Krugman and Al Qaeda.)
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To: Paradox
but but but... this is less than the 165000 (money.cnn.com)that had been hoped for/expected, so this is another Bush failure!

There is a clear bottleneck happening here as GDP and corporate profits boom. I think companies are waiting to make absolutely sure we are on the positive side of this war and economy before making major capital investments. This could happen this Summer or in the Fall leading to huge payroll addition headlines closer to the election.

13 posted on 02/06/2004 5:40:41 AM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Paul Krugman and Al Qaeda.)
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To: ohioWfan; DrDeb
here it is
14 posted on 02/06/2004 5:40:44 AM PST by mystery-ak (*terrorism has been exaggerated*....Kerry....We must defeat him, our lives depend on it.)
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To: techwench
All the IT work is being outsourced to India, while the number of obese Americans continues to skyrocket.

Funny, I'm probably going to have my choice of three jobs by early next week. Guess they haven't gotten around to outsourcing those jobs next.

You wanna stay employable in IT in this country? Learn more than code and hardware - learn several different functions within IT and develop business expertise. And learn QA concepts and apply it to your work.

15 posted on 02/06/2004 5:40:51 AM PST by dirtboy (We have come here not to insult Howard Dean, but to bury him...)
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To: FreedomPoster
Are Daschle and Kerry brothers? They both have long faces.
16 posted on 02/06/2004 5:41:01 AM PST by Piquaboy
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To: Paradox
Yep, funny how these "analysts" keep raising the bar -- these are the same analysts who had not "forseen" the 6 percent GDP growth posted for the second half of '03.
17 posted on 02/06/2004 5:41:12 AM PST by JohnHuang2
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To: Pikamax
Here's the Reuters take on the same story. Note the doom and gloom hinted at.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy created just 112,000 new jobs in January, far fewer than expected, government data showed on Friday, in a disappointing report that will weigh on President Bush's re-election campaign. The fifth straight monthly gain in non-farm payrolls followed a revised increase of 16,000 new jobs in December, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.6 percent, the lowest since January 2002, from 5.7 percent the previous month - but those numbers are taken from a separate, smaller, survey.

Analysts had been expecting the improving economy to create 150,000 new jobs in January

18 posted on 02/06/2004 5:41:25 AM PST by ladtx ( "Remember your regiment and follow your officers." Captain Charles May, 2d Dragoons, 9 May 1846)
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To: JohnHuang2
Poor Democrats loose their talking point "Only 1 thousand jobs created in December"

Ten bucks says they still use it.
19 posted on 02/06/2004 5:42:33 AM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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