An (Updated) Look at This Fall's Senate Races

Although Republicans have nominal control of the chamber, the Senate is where Democrats have been most effective in thwarting the GOP’s agenda. Will this November’s races supplement Republican numbers, or will Democrats maintain their blockade? Here are my thoughts on the upcoming political harvest: (NOTE: After each state is a running total in italics.)

ALABAMA -- Richard Shelby’s 1994 switch to the GOP played well in this Republican-leaning state. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two Senate races by 2-to-1 margins, and it’s easy to see why Shelby will have no problem keeping this seat. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ALASKA -- After Frank Murkowski (R) became governor last year, he appointed his daughter Lisa to fill the remainder of his Senate term. Unfortunately, she got off to a rough start and appeared to be in even deeper trouble when former governor Tony Knowles (Alaska’s most prominent Democrat) announced he would run against her. Since then, however, Murkowski has found her footing. Moreover, she has the advantage of running in one of the country’s most Republican states. National Democratic opposition to oil drilling in ANWR isn’t doing Knowles any favors, either.

A January poll gave Knowles a four-point lead, within the margin of error, but still a cause for concern. On the other hand, Murkowski has raised nearly twice the money Knowles has, and she hasn’t spent much of it yet. This will be a tight race, but a good showing by George Bush in November should allow Murkowski to hold on. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R -, D -)

ARIZONA -- John McCain often delights in bedeviling his fellow Republicans, so he dodged a bullet a few months ago when Rep. Jeff Flake forewent a primary challenge. This frees McCain to focus on the general election, which shouldn’t present him any problems. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ARKANSAS -- One by one, top-tier potential challengers to Blanche Lincoln (D) declined to run against her, leaving her in better shape than she might have been. Right now, she’s likely to face either Andy Lee (R), a former sheriff, or State Senator Jim Holt (R).

Despite Lincoln’s fairly liberal voting record, she’s drawn a primary opponent in former NOW official Lisa Burks. It’s unclear if this challenge will disorient Lincoln’s reelection campaign, but unless there’s a Republican tsunami in the fall she probably will go on to post a solid victory. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

CALIFORNIA -- Despite Arnold Schwarzenegger’s impressive victory here, California still has a serious Democratic lean to it. This is good news for Barbara Boxer (D), whose hyper-liberal politics would doom her in just about any other state. Nonetheless, Arnold has shown that a Republican can win in California, provided he unites the GOP’s conservative and moderate/liberal wings.

Fortunately for Republicans, the person most likely to do this, former CA Sec. of State Bill Jones (R), has won the nomination. Unfortunately, Jones has a tough road to travel (as does any Republican running in a state dominated by Hollywood at one end and San Francisco at the other). Still, Jones could give Boxer a real scare, and he might even make this a horse race if the stars align for the GOP (the economy keeps improving, Schwarzenegger continues making headway and President Bush runs well enough to make California competitive). Everything else being equal though, Boxer has the upper hand. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

COLORADO -- GOP Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s decision to retire has made this a wide-open contest. Multi-millionaire Rutt Bridges (D) already was running against Campbell and now that the incumbent has stepped aside, Rep. Mark Udall (D) probably will enter the race too.

On the Republican side, Rep. Scott McInnis and current Gov. Bill Owens are possible candidates. If Owens gets in he would be the front-runner, and a strong one at that. If McInnis (or someone else besides Owens) wins the GOP nod, this will be a close race. While Republicans can’t take this seat for granted any more, they still enjoy an edge in GOP-trending Colorado. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R -, D -)

CONNECTICUT -- Connecticut hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since the very liberal and very obnoxious Lowell Weicker last won in 1982. Don’t look for that to change this year, as Christopher Dodd (D) will win easily. Stays Democratic (R -, D -)

FLORIDA -- A year ago it seemed as if Bob Graham (D) had a lock on this seat. Then he decided he’d make a pretty good president. He didn’t get very far though, and was the first Democrat to quit the race. Not long afterward, he announced he wouldn’t seek reelection to the Senate either.

Democrats are likely to nominate former FL Education Sec. Betty Castor to replace Graham, while Republicans probably will choose either former Rep. Bill McCollum or former HUD Sec. Mel Martinez. The White House backs Martinez, but McCollum has a slight lead in the polls. Right now, I'd rate the Republican primary a tossup.

Nonetheless, the eventual GOP candidate should have a modest advantage in November. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is highly popular and the state seems to favor President Bush over Sen Kerry (recent polls notwithstanding). This will be no cakewalk, but the odds favor Republicans. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +1, D –1)

GEORGIA -- Zell Miller (D) is retiring and Republicans are likely to win this seat. The Democrats already have gone through most of their A-list and found no one interested in making the run. Whomever the Democrats choose will have an uphill battle in this Republican-trending state. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +2, D –2)

HAWAII -- No word yet from Hawaii, but if Daniel Inouye (D) seeks and wins reelection he’ll be 86 when his next term expires. Even if he doesn’t run, Hawaii is so Democratic the GOP would have a hard time capturing this seat. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

IDAHO -- They don’t come much more Republican than Idaho, and Mike Crapo (R) will have no problems winning in 2004. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

ILLINOIS -- After incumbent Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R) announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, many observers (including, ahem, me) gave up this seat as lost. Illinois or, specifically, the city of Chicago, has become too Democratic for the GOP to prevail in most races.

Fortunately, the primaries have taken a welcome turn. The GOP is poised to nominate its strongest candidate, financier Jack Ryan, while the Democrats may be stuck with their weakest, State Sen. Barrack Obama. Obama’s liberal politics and inner-city persona may play well in a crowded, Chicago-heavy Democratic primary, but could be big liabilities in the general.

If Democrats dodge a bullet and Obama doesn’t get the nomination, they would be favored to pick up this seat. With Obama at the helm, though, the GOP just might pull off the political miracle of the year. Obama has surged in recent polls, but the Democratic establishment may seek to prevent a disaster. Will they give Obama the Dean treatment? Stay tuned. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +2, D -2)

INDIANA -- Normally a Republican-leaning state, Indiana has a soft spot for Democrats named Bayh. The current incumbent, Evan Bayh, is no exception, and his voting record is only mildly liberal. A top-notch GOP challenger still might be able to give Bayh a race, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards this time around. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

IOWA -- Iowa may be one of the more Democratic states, but Republicans still are competitive here. Case in point is Senator Charles Grassley (R), who’s won his last two races by better than 2-to-1 margins. He’s a safe bet for this November too. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

KANSAS -- Kansans haven’t elected a Democratic senator since FDR was president and they’re not likely to break that string in 2004. Sam Brownback (R) will keep this seat. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

KENTUCKY -- Jim Bunning (R) had a close race when he first was elected in 1998, but Democrats have fallen on hard times in Kentucky and probably won’t put up much of a fight; particularly not when George Bush is likely to carry the state very comfortably. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

LOUISIANA -- If Sen. John Breaux (D) hadn’t retired, this race would be over already. Now that the seat’s open, though, Louisiana has an old-fashioned free-for-all. The GOP has settled on Rep. David Vitter, while the Democrats’ two most prominent contenders are Rep. Chris John and State Treasurer John Kennedy. All candidates will face off in November and if no-one reaches 50%, the top two vote-getters will advance to a December runoff.

Vitter has a commanding lead right now, as he’s the only significant Republican in the race, but he’s short of 50%. Barring a Bush super-landslide on Election Day, Vitter’s likely to face either John or Kennedy a month later.

Unfortunately, December runoffs tend to be heartbreakers for the GOP. Ask Woody Jenkins, Suzie Terrell or Bobby Jindal. It’s not that Republicans do poorly in these contests but, rather, that they always come so agonizingly close to winning, only to fall short by a few votes. It often seems Republicans are locked in at 49%.

Can Vitter evade the curse? He’s not without his resources, but Democrats can count on the black vote to give them an automatic 25% boost in any election. This’ll be another close one, but history suggests Democrats have a minor edge. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +2, D –2)

MARYLAND -- Once every twenty years or so Republicans manage to win a race in Maryland. No one is quite sure how this happens. Unfortunately, Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) used up all the GOP’s good luck in 2002, so it’s unlikely Republicans will find anyone to beat Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) this year. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

MISSOURI -- Christopher (“Kit”) Bond (R) always has won reelection comfortably, if not overwhelmingly. His moderate conservatism is well-suited to a swing state and should see him through next year’s contest. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

NEVADA -- This is one that slipped through the GOP’s fingers. Harry Reid (D) never has won with much more than 51%, and the last time around his margin was only 400 votes. Republicans were counting on popular Rep. Jim Gibbons to challenge Reid in 2004, but Gibbons decided against the race. Then NV Sec. of State Dean Heller opted out too, leaving Reid without significant opposition. As a result, he now has a clear advantage next November. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Sen. Judd Gregg’s (R) wife famously foiled a kidnapping attempt last autumn. Gregg’s reelection in Republican-friendly New Hampshire, on the other hand, should be much less trouble. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

NEW YORK -- Charles Schumer (D) is so abrasive, he may be too much, even for New York. The problem is finding a Republican who can beat him. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) is more than equal to the task, but his eyes are on the governor’s mansion, or maybe Hillary Clinton’s job, or maybe the White House. Rep. Peter King (R) would’ve made this an interesting race, but he chose instead to seek reelection to the House.

Republicans finally pushed obscure State Rep. Howard Mills to take one for the team. As if Mills didn’t have enough problems, he may not get the crucial Conservative Party endorsement, thus splitting the anti-Schumer vote. Even with the Conservative nod, Mills is unlikely to break 35% this November, keeping Schumer in the country’s face for another six years. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

NORTH CAROLINA -- John Edwards (D) would’ve been in trouble if he had sought reelection, but his decision to pursue the Democratic presidential nomination spared him rejection by North Carolina’s voters. Instead, another Democrat (former Clinton staffer Erskin Bowles) will face the electorate. Although there’s enough of a base to make Democrats competitive in North Carolina, right now Rep. Richard Burr (R) has something of an advantage, particularly with a Bush-Kerry contest to set the tone. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +3, D –3)

NORTH DAKOTA -- In 2000 Bush beat Gore here by 28 points, yet the GOP can’t seem to dislodge either of the state’s two Democratic senators. The one Republican candidate who might’ve been able to help, former governor Edward Schafer, has declined to run. Barring a miracle, North Dakotans will return George Bush to the White House and Byron Dorgan (D) to the Senate in November. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

OHIO -- George Voinovich (R) nearly derailed the president’s tax cut and his support for the Republican agenda has been lukewarm, yet he drew no major primary opposition in 2004. This November, former Rep. Eric Fingerhut (D) shouldn’t be too much trouble either. Stays Republican (R +3, D –3)

OKLAHOMA -- Don Nickles (R) announced he would not seek another term, opening a seat that would’ve been a sure thing for the GOP. Democrats seem to have settled on Rep. Brad Carson, while Republicans were considering Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys (R). Unfortunately, Humphreys has failed to inspire much support, and he trails Carson in early polls.

This, more than anything else, prompted former Rep. Tom Coburn (R) to enter the race recently. Coburn probably will win the Republican endorsement, and must be considered the frontrunner in the general election too. Carson’s a strong candidate, but Oklahoma’s likely to be one of the president’s best states in November. Even the shortest coattails will give Coburn a big boost. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +3, D –3)

OREGON -- When Republicans nominate a strong candidate, this state is competitive. Otherwise, Democrats are fairly safe here, as Ron Wyden (D) should be this year. Stays Democratic (R +3, D –3)

PENNSYLVANIA -- This will be a hotly-contested state next month, as conservative Rep. Pat Toomey challenges moderately liberal Sen. Arlen Specter for the Republican nomination. Toomey’s put up a spirited fight, but Specter is too well-established and probably will prevail.

Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee will be liberal Philadelphia-area Rep. Joseph Hoeffel. Pennsylvanians might not rally to Specter, but Hoeffel’s just too obscure and too liberal to gain much traction against the incumbent. In other words, Specter’s likely to win by default. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +3, D –3)

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Along with Georgia, this state represents Republicans’ best chance for a gain next year. Sen. Ernest (“Fritz”) Hollings’ (D) victory margins have diminished in recent elections, as he’s moved further and further to the left. In fact, there’s a very good chance he would have been defeated had he sought reelection in 2004. Now that the seat’s open, former Gov. David Beasley (R) is at the head of the pack. SC Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum (D) will prove a lively foe, but Beasley has a distinct advantage, particularly with president Bush atop the ticket. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +4, D –4)

SOUTH DAKOTA -- Republicans would love to defeat Tom Daschle (D, as if it weren’t obvious) and their top-tier candidate, former Rep. John Thune (R), will be the nominee, but the odds still are daunting. South Dakotans have a strong preference for Republicans, but an even stronger preference for the pork Daschle brings home. Thune will make this a real contest, but Daschle still has to be considered the frontrunner. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +4, D –4)

UTAH -- Robert Bennett (R) has no worries this fall in this GOP stronghold. Stays Republican (R +4, D –4)

VERMONT -- Vermont has given the nation Howard Dean and Jim Jeffords, and elects a Socialist to represent it in the House. Is it any wonder Patrick Leahy (D) will have no problem winning reelection? Stays Democratic (R +4, D –4)

WASHINGTON -- Patty Murray (D) compared Osama bin Laden to the Founding Fathers, but criticism bounced right off her because she’s Queen of the Soccer Moms. Seattle-area Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R) might’ve cut into Murray’s suburban support, but Dunn decided against running.

Instead, Spokane Rep. George Nethercutt will be the Republican standard-bearer. His campaign seemed a long shot a few months ago, but Nethercutt has been surprisingly competitive. Of course, any Democrat has a natural advantage in Washington, but Nethercutt started his career by slaying a giant (then-Speaker of the House Tom Foley), so he’s no stranger to challenges. This could be 2004’s sleeper race. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +4, D –4)

WISCONSIN -- Russ Feingold (D) won his last election by only three points and he could face another close contest this year. So far, State Rep. Robert Welch (R) and entrepreneurs Russ Darrow and Tim Michels have lined up to oppose him. Feingold is a liberal in a state that isn’t quite as Democratic as it used to be, so his reelection is far from automatic. However, he is the incumbent and his work on campaign-finance reform will allow him to claim the title of “reformer,” a definite plus in “squeaky clean” Wisconsin. The outcome of this race probably will be tied to George Bush’s performance here next year. If the president carries Wisconsin, particularly if he carries it by more than a couple points, Feingold could be in trouble. Still, all else being equal, Feingold has a modest advantage. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +4, D –4)

At this point, Republicans seem most likely to pick up four seats, giving them a total of 55. I’m slightly more optimistic than I was a few months ago, when I figured they’d gain only three seats, but the situation still is fluid.

Of course, the big factor in all these races is the president’s performance. In my model I assume he’ll earn a solid, but not-quite-overwhelming victory over Sen. Kerry. Say, something in the six- to eight-point range nationally. I’m beginning to suspect I’m underestimating President Bush, but for now I’m playing it safe.

All in all, Democrats have little chance of taking the Senate, even if (God forbid!) Kerry prevails this fall. Their best practical scenario would be to fight the GOP to a draw. On the other hand, if Bush takes down Kerry like Reagan did Mondale, Republicans could pick up seven or even eight seats.

I agree, Eisenhower.

Ryan's the odds-on favorite downstate, while (of course!) Daley will deliver big margins for Obama in the city. What else are Daleys good for, if not manipulating the urban vote?

In my opinion, the real fight will be in the suburbs. Sure, Ryan will win the collar counties, but by how much? If he gets (well) over 60% in DuPage close to 60% in Lake County, he has a chance.

Then again, if Obama doesn't get the Democratic nod, this discussion is moot.

Definitely. While I still think Murray's the favorite in WA, I'm much more optimistic than I was a couple months ago. I'd put our chances at 40%; maybe closer to 50% if Kerry implodes between now and November. Maybe there's a photo out there of Brezhnev giving him the Order of Lenin...

Anyway, winning NY and MD would be wonderful too, but we have about as much chance of doing that as Kerry does of carrying TX. Of course, ask me again in 2006, when Mrs. Clinton is due for an attitude adjustment.

In Arkansas, Jim Holt can beat Blanche Lincoln. RINOs don't like him because he really is the Christian Conservative that they only pretend to be. He would be a lot like the Oklahoma senators. I am embarrased that the state next door has had senators that are SO MUCH better than ours.

Jim can cut into her base with labor and rural conservatives who for no good reason often vote demorat

I have been keeping an updated Senate 2004 Map & Candidate listing for a Current Events Group meeting monthly. This information is wonderful and I have made the appropriate changes/additions. The most encouraging is your thoughts on the possibility of a 4 seat pick up. We need some positive thoughts during this time of BUSH BASHING. And then another terror attack today is so horrific. Our President has just so many things on his plate that we need to all help with the Senate seats as much as possible and he will be there to do his part and help with the money in due time. I am also contributing to the NRSC from time to time to help us take some of these seats. Keep up your thoughts as they are helpful. One question: Didn't know Beasley was running in SC...could you shed some more light. Have relatives in SC and I have to keep them informed? Thought it was only DeMitt as I know Bush as been there on several occasions with him.

Isn't it just so amazing that the GOP has a chance to have a conservative black man, Cain, up for the Senate in GA and the 1st conservative Hispanic, Martinez, in FL? Carville and the gang must be in fits...so what's new?

Thanks, Magnum Fan, for the thoughtful analysis.

I do hope you're wrong about CA, and the Jones/Boxer battle will be helped by the sheer force of Arnold's personality. But then again, if support for Arnold goes south, which it likely will over the DL's for illegals, that's bad news for Jones. :'-(

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