Posted on 11/04/2004 4:56:43 PM PST by GOPGrrl
I don't know much about provisional ballots, but the last count of provisional ballots was a little more than 155,000 in Ohio (according to the Ohio SOS website).
Another thread is discussing a dwindling Bush lead in New Mexico with the threat of the state being thrown to Kerry when all provisional ballots are counted.
Is it possible that once the votes in Ohio are counted, some fluke could put Kerry over the top? Or close the margin enough to make a recount palpable for Democrats?
I realize I'm paranoid. I realize this is irritating.
But after working so hard for so many months and being prepared for a tough, drawn out legal win, I'm nervous about all of these outstanding votes in the state we needed to win.
Go easy on me! I don't post much!
Relax. It's over.
I wouldn't worry. The Kerry team sat up all night crunching the numbers and realized that there was just no way it would stretch.
If there had been the slighest chance, he wouldn't have conceded.
There is ZERO chance that enough provisional ballots to put Kerry over the top are even VALID.
Of those that are valid, Bush would need a scant 20% or so of them to keep his lead.
Impossible. Fret not. And don't post vanities, add to a pre-existing thread on the Ohio count.
Let not your heart be troubled. ~Sean Hannity
Please search my poster name and read all you need to know about provisional ballots. It's a long story, but you don't need to worry about it. It's done.
I don't know anything about New Mexico, but Bush's lead went from 54 mil on Wednesday morning to 59 mil today.
Not sure what you are talking about there.
Nope!
Don't even give it a second thought.
Military ballots are a part of this equation you fear. They favor the President by 3 or 4 to one. Nothing to worry about. Smile and gloat. :-)
Kerry would have to get 95% of the PB to win. Bush lead was 144,000. Statistically impossible. We won.
I will definitely go read your post.
I realize I'm being completely paranoid about this, but it almost seems inconceivable that this is truly over without a protracted fight.
Thanks to all for your patience!
Just a hypothetical question - could Kerry still claim victory if after all the additional votes are counted in OHIO show Kerry ahead?
Or is it over because he conceded?
If there is a chance, we must watch Ohio carefully to make sure they don't cheat their way into the WH.
Okay. I'll go easy on you. If you don't know whether or not America won.....how about cocktails tomorrow evening so I can explain everything to you?
Bush's lead in OH is approximately 136,000 before all of the military absentee ballots that will only pad that lead. But's let's assume a worst-case scenario and say that Kerry breaks even with those ballots and Bush still has a lead of 136,000. You have to remember that provisional ballots are not valid ballots per se, but were cast by people who showed up and were not allowed to vote (rightly, in most cases, I would imagine) because of various reasons (not registered, at the wrong precinct, etc.). Now there has been a lot of talk on the TV about 90% of Ohio's provisional ballots being ruled as eligible in the last election but that was under a different definition of provisional balloting that was far more strict (most people who requested a provisional ballot during the last election had to jump through various hurdles just to obtain them). But, again, let's assume a worst-case scenario and assume that 90% of all the provisional ballots were again rendered valid (and I stress this is HIGHLY unlikely - I'd be surprised if 20% of them are ruled as valid), that would leave the total pool of provisionals at 140,000. Less than half of these provisional ballots were cast in the heavily-Democratic areas of Ohio (Cuyahoga and Franklin) where Kerry won by approximately 2-1, but let's assume that Kerry takes 80% of these ballots in ALL areas (including the heavily Republican counties). Heck, let's make it 90% (again, something that won't happen). That means Kerry gains 126,000 votes and still trails Bush.
Rest easy...it's over.
Folks, we should all realize God and no one else made this happen. All the pundits in the world stand no chance against a Country in prayer. 'Nuff said.
The Ohio Secretary of State said that Kerry would need
136,000 out of 155,000 provisional ballots to win. He said that would not be possible.
As for New Mexico Bush has 274 electoral votes NOT counting Iowa or New Mexico. As it was said once Bush had Ohio there is no way Kerry could win.
Thank you.
I just spent too long over reading at DU. REading all their blather about how they're looking for voter fraud and how Kerry could still win (consession speech means nothing) was starting to worry me.
I need to swear off of cruising thru DU.
I wasn't even surfacing DU.
I've heard a few Democrats wonder aloud whether it's still possible to win once all the votes are counted.
I was prepared for a month or two of fighting, counting, re-counting, proviosional vote challenges, etc.
I'll probably be a little edgy until votes are certified.
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