Posted on 11/06/2004 8:38:56 AM PST by Ginifer
If Democrats want to win back the White House in 2008, they should set their clocks to Mountain Time and find a candidate who slips naturally into scuffed cowboy boots.
That's the assessment of several party leaders and political analysts in Colorado, as they scour Tuesday's election results for help down the road.
Their clues begin in the contrasting Colorado finishes for Ken Salazar, who won a hotly contested U.S. Senate seat, and John Kerry, who lost the state despite campaigning vigorously here.
Salazar and Kerry held similar views on several key issues, including heath care, national security and abortion.
But exit polls indicated that low-income voters narrowly preferred Salazar over Republican Pete Coors but widely choose President Bush over Kerry.
And while Salazar won bushels of rural voters and carried several suburban counties, Kerry struggled in both areas. For example, the Massachusetts senator fared slightly worse in Pueblo and Prowers counties than Al Gore did in 2000, despite visiting both on campaign swings.
Analysts summarized the gap in a word: authenticity. They say Democrats need a candidate who fits in rural communities and Western suburbs, a trait they explain in terms of clothing.
"It's the difference between a cowboy hat and a barn coat," said Rick Ridder, a Denver-based Democratic strategist.
While Salazar looked at home in his signature wide-brimmed hat, Ridder said, "John Kerry always wore that brown barn coat, which always seemed like it was straight out of the L.L. Bean catalog, not Sheplers."
Other Democratic lessons are less wardrobe, more strategy. They include:
Look to the Southwest before the South
To win the presidency, Democrats need to break into the "red states," a Republican-dominated swath of the electoral map stretching from Florida to Idaho.
Local leaders say the best chance for that isn't the South, where Kerry never topped 45 percent of the vote outside the Sunshine State. It's the Southwest.
Kerry barely lost Nevada and New Mexico. He lost Colorado by 5 percentage points, an improvement on Gore's 9 percentage point loss in 2000. If Kerry had won all three states, he'd be the president-elect.
Democrats say changing demographics should make those states, plus Arizona, more competitive in 2008. They're particularly encouraged by surging numbers of Hispanics, who tend to favor Democratic candidates.
Think moderate - and maverick
Analysts see a pattern in the region's most successful Democrats: They steer toward the middle - and they stand out doing it.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a boisterous campaigner often mentioned as a presidential contender, won big in 2002 with a platform that mixed education reform, tax cuts and cracking down on crime.
Former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer sported a bomber jacket and a centrist agenda.
Salazar didn't shake the walls with his subdued campaign speeches this fall, but he rolled around the state in a green pickup, and he frequently talked about his favorite Republicans on the road.
"Democrats who are interesting personalities tend to do well here," said Jim Carpenter, Salazar's campaign manager.
Reframe the debate over 'values'
Democrats shouldn't sacrifice traditional party pillars to win here, party leaders say. Instead, candidates should reframe their core beliefs in a language Republicans speak fluently: values.
In an election where moral issues played heavily on voters' minds, Salazar won being pro-choice and favoring gay civil unions. Exit polls indicated he outperformed Kerry greatly among Coloradans who cited morals as their top issue.
Salazar talked a lot in the campaign about his San Luis Valley values and his Catholic faith. Jim Gibson, of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, says other candidates should, too - and expand the values definition in the process.
Democratic values, he said, include lifting up the poor, taking care of seniors and preserving a shared space. Or, as most candidates talk about them now, tax policy, Social Security and environmental protection.
Gibson also said Kerry clearly struggled talking about his faith, something other Democrats must overcome to win in rural areas, where people "want to believe that you believe."
Learn some new names
It's one thing to sketch a perfect candidate. It's another to find one ready and able to run for president, and the strategists disagree on who makes the list.
They generally concur that he or she doesn't have to be Western, though it could help.
Chris Gates, chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party, says Democrats need someone who looks comfortable in jeans and cowboy boots, "and not all polished up ones, either."
They generally don't mention some of the biggest names rumored for 2008, most notably Sen. Hillary Clinton. And odds are, most folks won't have heard of at least a few of their suggestions.
The most prominent is John Edwards, Kerry's running mate, who brings a poor North Carolina background but disappointed some party leaders with his failure to deliver the rural vote to Kerry this year.
Other big guns include Evan Bayh, a moderate Indiana senator rumored as a vice presidential possibility for both Gore and Kerry; Richardson; and Tom Vilsack, Iowa's governor, who reportedly made Kerry's VP short list.
More governor possibilities are lower profile: Kathleen Sebelius, of Kansas; Mark Warner, of Virginia; David Freudenthal, of Wyoming; Janet Napolitano, of Arizona; Phil Bredesen, of Tennessee; and John Kitzhaber, former governor of Oregon.
Get ready to revisit this
Strategists agree that national events will likely change the key election issues - and their candidate criteria - several times before 2008. So everything's subject to change.
"It's tough to speculate," Ridder said. "A year ago, we were all sitting here saying, 'Howard Dean's going to be the candidate.' "
Yeah, like Molly Ivins comes off as "authentic".
The Slave Party has no shame.
So we are to believe that the democrats are going to send out a midwestern, cowboy hats and boots. Humm sounds like they are looking for another GWB.
I agree completely..southwestern part of France is lovely..great beaches..Cannes...temperate climate...great food and wine..Dems definitely should explore it..
Big oversight in this article - a a higher percentage of the Christian Right vote went to Salazar over "Coors" (as compared to other races) due to the big time beer connection and the fact that Coors beer has recently sponsored "gay" celebrations
... and yet, oddly: I sense, somehow -- oh, call me psychic! -- that the Euroweenie press would never, ever condescendingly refer to such a 'Rat (if elected) as being a "cowboy"; even were he to give the State of the Union while wearing spurs and twirling a pair of six-shooters. :)
These articles are amusing. I'm a born-again Christian living in Massachusetts, and I was only saved about 4 months ago. About two months after my baptism I switched from being a Democrat to a Republican. The liberals (which includes many of my friends) just don't get it. They always think they can get away with lying to America. Running a secularist in cowboy boots will not fool anyone.
Not to quibble, but Cannes is in southeastern France.
The Dems SHOULD look to the South and the South West and when they do...MAY THEY SEE RED!!!!
Wrong again.
Dims should look to the East.
Like France, Germany, Belgium ... well you get the idea. ;)
And I thought they hated cowboys.
I actually think the analysis is correct. If they want to win, the Dems will have to run a candidate that plays well somewhere besides the NE and West Coast. They have a MUCH better chance of flipping the SW states than the Deep South. They would also have to run a more moderate candidate... which is a good thing for everyone.
The question is, will a candidate like that make it out of the primaries? They will probably nominate Hillary and watching her go down in flames and taking down the Dem party as we know it will be a beautiful thing to behold.
Molly Ivins plays the part of "leftwing nutcase" fairly convincingly.
3 days after the election and they are giving democrats advice on how to win ... eh???
yeah a swing of 100,000 votes win give Kerry ohio ... but a swing of 100,000 votes to Bush in WI, NH and ME-2 would have given him 15 more electoral voes. and 200,000 more and he would have won PA.
IF Bush convincingly leads so that we win in Iraq and defeat terrorists, if we reduce the deficit and grow the economy, and nominate good judges ... the GOP majority will only grow.
Their cluelessness about how talking doesnt cut it is now laughable. It's like the old line
"A politician needs sincerity, and if you can fake that, you've got it made!"
Fits Clinton-era Democrats to a T.
This is more proof that the moderate Republicans are wrong about how to attract swing voters... a message combining social conservative and free market views - the REAGAN formula - is the formula for success in most of the country.
The Southwest is made up of alot of GOP refugees from CA. Most of the new DL's in CO are from CA I believe
Yes, they do not understand that values and morality require more than appearences and lip service. The reason Kerry lost was not because he didn't talk the talk, it was because he didn't walk the walk.
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