Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[sinkspur]

My sister is flying down from New Jersey tomorrow to attend the City Limits (?) Music Festival in Austin on Saturday. It's an outdoor festival. She has a hotel and isn't scheduled to fly back to New Jersey until Monday.

There will be no outdoor music festival. If Rita is a Cat 4 at landfall, winds will hit Austin at 100 mph. Your sister will stay in a hotel all weekend, and may not be able to get out on Monday.

Surely the tickets will be refunded, and the hotel can be cancelled so that evacuees from the coast can use the room.

[SE Mom]

Holy #$%^

[Zechariah_8_13]

As WoodstockCat noted, there's a possibility her flight might be delayed.

So if she's got critical meetings at work on Tuesday, she might want to consider pushing them back to be safe.

[Howlin]

This is Isabel after she "pancaked."

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2003/83KJ2799_Isabel_09132003.lr.jpg

[Pyro7480]

When's the last time that there were 2 Category 5 hurricanes in a hurricane season? 2 that entered the Gulf? This year has been absolutely historical.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Not cause for panic. An umbrella and a poncho will be required. It will get "a little damp" as we say in Texas. And there will be "a stiff breeze" in Austin.

[laz]

winds are higher then the 150 he just put out

I'm sure they are 160-165. The info being put out is behind the curve. I'm even willing to entertain the possibility that she reached Cat 5 before the 24-hour mark at 9:15 AM.

[Xenalyte]

That is it! Thank you so much!

[LikeLight]

Last couple of satellite images would suggest a slight turn to north of current projected track. Might just be a jog, or might indicate a bit of a northward shift.

[Horns]

So would you predict the same for San Antonio?

[Bahbah]

Thanks for finding and posting that. I was hoping for a comparison. Very eerie.

[My back yard]

I just spoke to a friend in Aransas Pass, they are heading out, and she says she is seeing National Guard in the area already. She also said people are freaking out down there.

[dogbyte12]

Don't know the time it last happened in recorded history, but I do know that yesterday, I heard that historically speaking, the gulf only gets one cat 3 landfall hurricane every 9 years. Tons of 1's and 2's, but Katrina and Rita has got to be the biggest one/two punch to the gulf in modern memory.

[Howlin]

I can't think of any, but see if you can find some:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

[laz]

The eye weakens a bit before it gets stronger and bigger.

Concentric eyewalls form, and the new and outer one replaces the original inner one as the original gets drier and falls apart. As that happens, the storm weakens, then reintensifies after the process is complete.

[2nd amendment mama]

Ping This is the map of the oil rigs

[Knitting A Conundrum]

And there was a jog a little to the south earlier today...wobble. But something to watch.

[No Blue States]

Highways ready for coastal evacuees
Transportation officials say routes are in good shape; city is prepared. (Sept 21,2005)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3362716

[DallasMike]

Per the National Hurricane Center, the storm is wobbling almost directly to the west but is expected to take a northwest turn over the next 12 hours. The current predicted path has it making landfall midway between Galveston and Corpus Christi, Texas. Click the picture below for a full-sized view.

UPDATE 1:24 PM CDT: The National Hurricane Center is reporting a central pressure of 920 mb with sustained winds of over 150 mph. Look for Rita to become a Category 5 storm within the next few hours.

 

 

[SE Mom]

Has anyone heard from Max Mayfield today? I'd be interested in his take.

This still has two days to go..it seems likely there will be an eyewall replacement at some point, doesn't there? After that all bets are off..