Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Ryan Spock]

Thank you. It looks like I'm going to recommend that they head due north, and avoid the greater Houston area altogether as recommended by a couple of other posts. They can always turn eastward once they've gotten much further north in the state.

Now, the only problem is that my Dad isn't home yet -- hopefully he will be very soon, so they can pack a few things and get the heck out of town. He went down to Matagorda Bay yesterday to help a neighbor board up his coastal property. My Mom expects him home any time now. It wouldn't surprise me to hear that my Dad and the neighbor got caught in traffic heading out of that region...

[SE Mom]

Shepherd has gotten on the bandwagon of 150 mph...920 mb

[CedarDave]

From that link:

Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi: Tropical Discussion
I BELIEVE RITA WILL BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER TO HIT TEXAS...RITA HITS TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN PORT LAVACA AND GALVESTON AS A CATEGORY 4 OR 5. CARLA'S PRESSURE TO BEAT IS 935.

[johnb838]

Traffic looks to be at a standstill from the island to Kingwood already.

[NautiNurse]

You have been asked once already to stop with the Bush doesn't care and it's Bush's fault garbage. It's stale, it's not cute, and it is evidence of a small mind.

Update: You have now been asked twice to stop.

[texasx]

I have a son and daughter both living in Houston. They said there is not a loaf of bread or a bottle of water to be found anywhere. It is already difficult to get through to them on their cell phones. And the traffic is a nightmare. I just moved to Las Vegas from Houston after living there for 15 years. All my friends with small children are trying to leave now but my children are staying and riding out the storm. This site is fast becoming my lifeline for information. Thanks to all of you for information.

[johnb838]

I exaggerate. But it would be a big help toward taming this shrew if it did.

[laz]

Probably back in the 40s.

Yes, the Forties was a peak decade. So was the 1880's.

[Strategerist]

The top overall model for Katrina was indeed GUNA, which is an average of the UKMET, GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS.

The top individual model overall was the UKMET, though many were close behind.

The top performer for Katrina for 5 day forecasts was NOGAPS. The top performer for Katrina for 3 day forecasts was the BAMD and UKMET. (All the previous data actually automatically calculated by some software I have.)

The closest model to Katrina's actual landfall from precisely 3 days before landfall was the GUNA Consensus.


The current GUNA consensus for Rita is a landfall at East Matgorda Bay, a few miles east of the actual town of Matagorda, right over the little town of Gulf.

[Jaded]

Stay safe. Stay dry. I will see you sometime next week. Deacon Johnny demands it!

[johnb838]

I'm sorry, I didn't see the requests to stop. I was just messing. I'll certainly cease and desist.

[Sam Cree]

If I'm reading that NHC document correctly, the .73 pertains to max winds (found at 1600 feet), with the .91 being applied to flight level winds (10,000 feet), which apparently are not max, but have been found to be typically 20 per cent lower than those found at 1600 feet. Which would explain why the NHC uses a .91 multiplier from flight level.

My experience in hurricanes is that the surface anemometers are usually destroyed at some point before greatest wind speeds can be recorded.

[Pyro7480]

This kind of season is not unprecedented, no matter what the greens and the rats and the leninists try to spin and sell.

Exactly.

[Ron H.]

They tried seeding them to make the eyewall disintegrate, but then they discovered that the big hurricanes normally replace the eyewall anyway and that the seeding made no difference.

If memory serves me right the program I was thinking of had to with attempts to harness or to at least manipulate nature to relieve drought conditions in some areas of West Texas and Oklahoma and they ended up finding out that nature just isn't going to cooperate with mans puny attempts to do so..

[NautiNurse]

thank you, dear.

[I got the rope]

Tell'em to keep their powder dry. My family will be praying for yours.

[Strategerist]

Update: You have now been asked twice to stop.

I've never once sent a message to a mod my entire time on FR, but I'd propose that people making "Bush's Fault" jokes be banned.

I don not exaggerate that on the typical sorts of natural science threads that interest me, easily 25% to 50% of the posts are simply stale old "Bush's Fault" or "Rove's Fault" jokes.

I like a joke as much as the next guy, even one in poor taste as long as its funny, and there is a place for running jokes (Stuned Beeber always makes me smile) but I cannot fathom what someone at this point posting a simple "Bush's Fault!" joke is thinking..do they really believe people are going to read the post and think they're really witty or clever?

[Rebelbase]

Just couldn't resist posting this pic. and the caption:

(Credit: Kevin Bartram/Associated Press)
Galveston buses carrying evacuees head north Wednesday.

[NautiNurse]

small minds are easily amused...

[steveegg]

Now that's a beautiful pic.