Iranian Alert - April 30, 2006 - Iran accelerating nukes

Regime Change Iran ^ | 4/30/06 | freedom44

[freedom44]

Top News Story

Daily Times

LONDON [MENL] -- Iran was said to have developed an advanced centrifuge that could accelerate the production of enriched uranium.

The Iranian opposition movement asserted that Teheran has begun testing the P-2 gas centrifuge. The movement said the P-2 centrifuges were being operated in two locations in Iran.

At a Paris news conference on April 27, the National Council of Resistance of Iran said the P-2 centrifuge would help Iran accelerate its nuclear weapons program. The council said P-2 research was taking place in Natanz and Ab-e Ali and overseen by the Defense Ministry. Ab-e Ali is located near Teheran.

Earlier, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Teheran was developing and testing the P-2. He said the German-origin system could enrich uranium up to four times that of the P-1. The P-1 was designed by Pakistan.

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[freedom44]

[Brilliant]

This is about the third or fourth time they've accelerated it.

[Brilliant]

"He said the German-origin system could enrich uranium up to four times that of the P-1. The P-1 was designed by Pakistan."






Like I've said many times, the Germans aren't our friends.

[Marine_Uncle]

But the P1 systems where not designed by Pakistan. They procured the centrifuges and quite a bit of other associated equipment from European nations, and then assembled all the sub units that go into making a fully functional centrifugal cascade system. Might seem like a mute point, but as usual news sources don't seem to get the whole story straight.
Some of us will also remember a week back plus articles where two, indicated Iran procured some 50,000 centrifuges from Bulgaria, and had someone, e.g. company, from the Ukraine fly the sub units into Iran.
I'm not knocking the article. Just bringing up some points where I for one am not going to knee jerk on any given version of what is happening on this issue.
Some reports claim they already have a fully operational Uranium gas extraction/enrichment system that contains between 3,000 to 5,000 individual centrifuges configured as a series/cascade configuration.
Some articles claim a given expert says with 5,000 units working 100% effeciently, one could extract enough U-235 in say 7 or 8 months required to build a low yield atomic bomb.
All we know is they have for many years in clandestine fashion obtain and assembled equipment they where not reporting as signatories to the NPT.
Again I am not knocking the article just adding things.

[DoctorZIn]

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[AdmSmith]

You may calculate the enrichment time http://www.fas.org/cgi-bin/ucountdown.pl

[Marine_Uncle]

Nice little calculator. Thanks. Of course what one sees is a very general estimate based on a number of assumptions. Depending how they have constructed their system, it may not be so easy to "just add" additional individual units, on the fly. And what is not even hinted on is how well constructed the cold traps, baffle systems and valves are within each cascade stage (say 100 series units, then another 100 series units both also connected by piping, pumps, seperators, and a number of other pieces of hardware) just as a simplfied example, in order to reach a given MTBF (meantime before failure). But that all aside, and I am in no way experienced on how these particular systems perform. I look at the various web sites that show various elements of what is required, and have read a bit on different construction techniques etc..
Bottom line is we can see, even with a really small un-sophisticated system, e.g. perhaps lacking automated controls and most be carefully maintained by lab techs, to know for instance if the system must be shutdown due to a failure in a given centrifuge or associated pump, stuck valve etc., one can clearly see that eventually they could produce enough fission grade material to produce a low yield atomic bomb.
In that we all are in total agreement. I just don't like reading articles that as one we read here a week plus back, claimed they could be within 16 days of having enough material assuming they had some 5000 units and all associated hardware in hand and all was fully operational.
I am as concerned over their program as anyone. I just am trying not to knee jerk to hard on some of the articles that are being produced.

[AdmSmith]

Yes, I agree with you. I do not think that we have an imminent risk that they will have sufficient enriched uranium in 2006. But they sure have the desire to do it, thus we have to deprive them of that capability.

[Marine_Uncle]

" But they sure have the desire to do it, thus we have to deprive them of that capability."
yea betcha right. I am sure there are a lot of things still under hat. We only get slices of the meat.