Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc
So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more.
More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).
Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.
Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.
The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.
let's not start throwing around the "racism" term - I never claimed to personally know all the beliefs of every possible latino american based on nation of origin.
I suggest politicians add a no or yes to their R or D..No meaning no to Anarchy, Amnesty and end of the USA, Yes for yes to Anarchy,Amnesty and end of the USA..simple huh?
Yes I know and you glide down on parasols. LOL
So Mexicans elected Vicente Fox in their own country - who will they elect here? I'm sure it won't be anyone smarter or more honest then Fox.
: )
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, May 21, 2006; Page A06
Hispanic voters, many of whom responded favorably to President Bush's campaign appeals emphasizing patriotism, family and religious values in Spanish-language media in 2004, are turning away from the administration on immigration and a host of other issues, according to a new survey.
I agree with your analysis. The "business" wing of the GOP is cutting its own throat.
Y, cuando aterrisamos, somos el ombligo del mundo. ;-)
It is amusing to read some liberal writer without a clue speaking of so-called "Hispanics" as a monolithic block. The only thing we all have in common is that we are all very Politically Incorrect, especially when we are talking about each other.
bump!
Since most Latino Americans don't want the USA to be over-run by millions of more illegals, Bush could have won everyone's respect by closing the border. Now it is getting messed up and confused. Do conservative things and you will have no problem.
I had a lengthy conversation with a die-hard liberal in my town today and she is upset about the invasion.
I think Republicans have let a great opportunity go by the wayside.
Bush doesn't need to choose, he needs to do what is right, and that is to close the border from further invasion.
Guess Bill Krystol and Juan Williams didn't get the memo -- I just listened to their drivel on Fox...
Which is the point I have been making, to wit: if the debate in 2006 is not about expulsion/deportation, but rather amnesty/citizenship, where will the line be drawn in 2026?
Bud, they're way ahead of us. Offshore accounts, changes of domecile & multi-layered asset protection plans will allow them to spirit away their ill gotten gains.
>>>"Does the GOP establishment honestly believe that by giving 30 million Hispanics (and their tens of millions of relatives) amenesty they have a chance in hell of securing even a small fraction of their vote? This amnesty would be an electoral disaster beyond their worst nightmares."
As I recall the contentious numbers, post-election polling after Bush's second election showed about 40 percent of Hispanics voted for Bush.
The highest were Cubans in Florida at around 51 percent (I faintly recall them being over 50 percent but I could be wrong), then Texas Hispanics around 45 % (less than 50 percent but not too shabby), then northeastern Hispanics (Puerto Rico?), and finally Californian/West Coast Hispanics around 35 percent. Bush only did well with Cubans. Texas Hispanics didn't go against him very much. Anyone with better recall of the statistics, please join in.
But the bulk of the Hispanics (and it's resulting average) showed that wooing Hispanics was a losing proposition because: 1) he'll never get over 50 percent and 2) by pandering to Hispanics, he loses his HUGE non-Hispanic voters. What's interesting with the Hispanic voters is the high percentage that are for controlling illegal immigration (I think they are worried for their wage rates.)
These immigration bills demonstrate bad "strategery." There is still time (but barely) to recover (shut down the border tight as a drum, clamp down on employers, etc.). But it is doubtful that the current cast of characters will admit their errors. They will blunder on with their ship of state staring directly into the beams of the lighthouse.
"The non liberal white Democratic voters......"
No such people.
Juan is almost comical he's such a characature.. Kristol is to elite to get it.
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