Catastrophic Mudslide Could Last 100 Years, Say Scientists

The Guardian (UK) ^ | 9-26-2006 | John Aglionby

[blam]

Catastrophic mudslide could last 100 years, say scientists

· Land in East Java likely to collapse as thousands flee
· Attempts to seal channels will 'probably not succeed'

John Aglionby in Jakarta
Tuesday September 26, 2006
The Guardian (UK)

Smoke rises from the site of the mudslide in East Java. Photograph: Vinai Dithajohn/EPA

Mud, gas and boiling water that have been gushing out of the ground in East Java since May, submerging half a dozen villages and 20 factories, could continue for a century with "catastrophic consequences", European experts said yesterday. Efforts to seal the channels through which the mud is escaping are unlikely to succeed, and it is impossible to tell how much fluid remains underground, according to a University of Oslo geology team.

"It's unlikely to stop permanently for a long time," Adriano Mazzini told a press conference in Jakarta. "It's hard to say when the overpressure will have been fully released. It could be one, 10 or 100 years. But to seal it will be very, very difficult." According to Mr Mazzini, unless the flow stops soon, the affected land, which has already starting sinking, could subside significantly. "It will be catastrophic," he said. The mud started flowing on May 29, a couple of hundred metres from where the gas company PT Lapindo Brantas was drilling an exploratory well nearly two miles deep. It has been gushing up to 50,000 cubic metres a day - or two large bathsfull a second - ever since.

[kinoxi]

This is cereal.

[jdm]

I'll bring the vodka.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

So who had the idea of DRILLING a well into this area?

[BipolarBob]

The mud started flowing on May 29, a couple of hundred metres from where the gas company PT Lapindo Brantas was drilling an exploratory well nearly two miles deep. It has been gushing up to 50,000 cubic metres a day - or two large bathsfull a second - ever since.

I wonder . . . . . could there be a connection?

[auboy]

Has the price of mud fallen yet?

[A CA Guy]

Anaheim Hills of Anaheim California has kind of an issue like this but due to a different reason.

Homes were built all over the hills and then as lots of cracks, fishers and slides happened, they realized there were a bunch of underground streams trying to constantly carry the hills away and breaking some of them down.

I think it had been going on at least thousands of years and will continue to move and slide indefinitely.

[VOA]

So who had the idea of DRILLING a well into this area

You'd be suprised at some of the cockups some otherwise brilliant
engineers will do.

I had to force my self to sit silent during a presentation by
a major oil company as they patted themselves on the back for a
HUGE project to lift the level of a series of oil platforms in
The North Sea.

Seems they handn't anticipated that as they pumped out a gazillion cubic feet
of oil/gas...the level of the seabed (and their rigs) would lower.
And the violent waves would threaten to destroy their rigs with
those violent waves striking the underside of the main platforms.

I got to admit their retrofitting hydraulics to lift the platforms
was an tour de force...but would have cost a lot less if they'd
engineered it in from the start (just knowing there would be subsiding
of the seafloor).

[Roccus]

Do you mean to tell us that union construction workers were not at fault here?

Shocking!!!!

};^)

[bybybill]

The mudslide won`t last 100 years,the election is on 7 Nov

[marktwain]

I think you have been watching too many Science Fiction movies. The amount of energy in the well drilling vs the amount released in the eruption is tiny. If such a small amount of energy could trigger such an event, it was on a knives edge and ready to go at any time.

[ozzymandus]

Carl Rove strikes again!

[sionnsar]

Homes were built all over the hills and then as lots of cracks, fishers and slides happened, they realized there were a bunch of underground streams trying to constantly carry the hills away and breaking some of them down.

I bet those "fishers" were a really good indicator that the streams weren't really underground. Unless there's a (new?) method of subterranean flycasting of which I know nothing.

[VOA]

I'm sure my post 8 sounds a bit tough on engineers.
Actually, I never had the math-brains for that sort of work.
And I have lots of friends that ended up as Chem Engineers from my
"oiltown" home in Oklahoma.

It's just that most of their projects are so big...that on the rare occassions
that one is a screw-up...it's hard to miss.

[Disambiguator]

Mud, gas and boiling water

Sounds like a few camping trips I've been on.

:^)

[LNewman]

In other potentially catastrophic news, October's Popular Mechanics lists:

1) A 40-mile long mudslide, Washington State (Mt. Rainier)

2) Cumbre Vieja (most active volcano in Canary Islands) lurches from violent earthquake breaking away 1/3 of mountain into the Atlantic creating a 3000 ft. high dome of water that reaches the US East Coast in just 9 hours

3) Magnitude 6.9 earthquake, Missippi River Valley

4) 195-MPH hurricane slams into Coral Gables just south of Miami (2nd highest housing density in the country)

5) Climate-changing ocean disruption. Freshwater melt from Greenland ice sheet contributes to a layer of bouyant water that is beginning to cap the North Atlantic Ocean.

Thought I'd share the bedtime reading. ;)

[cpdiii]

What they have is a blowout that has come up around the casing of the well. This is not that uncommon. More than one drilling rig has collapsed into the crater that is left. It is not hard to stop but it is expensive. You directional drill down to the producing zone and kill it with heavy drilling fluid then you cement the damn thing up and go back to drilling for gas and oil and make money.

[Sender]

Sounds like a few camping trips I've been on

I really miss those days, of coming out of the woods all smoky and reeking and itchy, getting that shower and eating a large grilled animal.

[A CA Guy]

The fishers were new.

Looked like cracks in the ground where they collapsed into themselves a little.

Probably is information on the net about it.

Not a great selling point for Real Estate there.

Yet again they might get an extra 100k claiming the property is slowly moving to Hawaii!

[verum ago]

I think you have been watching too many Science Fiction movies. The amount of energy in the well drilling vs the amount released in the eruption is tiny. If such a small amount of energy could trigger such an event, it was on a knives edge and ready to go at any time.

I suspect that your idea that this upwelling being 'on a knife's edge' is correct. However, just because a small amount of energy was put into drilling compared to what was released doesn't mean that they're not related or even necessarily that the system was 'on a knife's edge'. For all we know the exploratory shaft could've breached an impermeable layer a mile thick; such a situation would actually be very stable until the breach. The relationship between energy in and out has nothing to do with the stability of the system. It's possible to put a relatively small amount of energy into a very stable system and get a huge return.