Posted on 02/16/2007 5:58:43 AM PST by PDR
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign. But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.
Interesting post.
I like Newt. He has IDEAS. I would vote for him.
Yet, I think he will be swimming upstream against history. Has a former speaker of the House ever been elected to the White House?
My fear as well. Morris thinks that "The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals.." and I respect his political acumen.
Notwithstanding, I think that the Drive-by Media is just waiting for the right moment to dust off this little bottle of poison and pour it into the cauldron. After all, Katie & co. have to do what they can to protect Hillary, don-cha know...
Newt bump
True. It would then come down to his ability to get his message out in spite of the MSM.
I'd like to see him involved with conservative politics as a consultant... rather than a candidate.
How about a conservative who does not have affairs, divorces and other skeletons? Anyone?
In the latest Fox News poll 64% of respondents said they would never vote for Gingrich- the highest of any of the listed candidates.
I've often said Newt's politcal fortunes would be much greater if his name were different. It's sad but true.
I disagree. If the media will cover his speeches & debates, Newt can hold his own and will win over all but the devout left-wing kooks. He is without a doubt the most intelligent and articulate public figure around today and that's the reason the left and the media will try to destroy him again.
This time, however, maybe he's lost his arrogance and can survive it.
If Hillary gets the democratic nomination... give me Newt up against her.
2008 may be the last election where the MSM is a player.
Ah, poor Newt! The Dick Morris kiss-of-death has ruined his chances.
I respect Newt but, he will never, ever be President of the United States. Not ever.
I was surprised to read that Morris thought that. No doubt that younger voters don't remember his term as speaker but I don't think that's a very significant number of the electorate. I just can't see Newt getting past the barbs of the MSM like Reagan was able to.
Newt ping.
But, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
I mean, other than that, Newt Gingrich is a great candidate.
We can only hope.
Yep, MSM creamed him in '94 and tagged him with so much baggage to make his middle name Samsonite.
Clinton basically ran against him in 1996 rather than Dole.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.