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Israeli Jets Vs. Iran Nukes
NY Sun ^ | June 12, 2007 | Daniel Pipes

Posted on 06/12/2007 4:59:20 AM PDT by IrishMike

Barring a "catastrophic development," Middle East Newsline reports, President Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation "needed for a withdrawal [of American forces] from Iraq."

If correct, this implies the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to "wipe Israel off the map" and is building the nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their patience is running out; Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz just warned that "diplomatic efforts should bear results by the end of 2007."

Can the Israel Defense Force in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program?

Top-secret analyses from intelligence agencies normally reply to such a question. But talented outsiders, using open sources, can also try their hand. Whitney Raas and Austin Long studied this problem at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and published their impressive analysis, "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," in the journal International Security.

Ms. Raas and Mr. Long focus exclusively on feasibility, not political desirability or strategic ramifications. Were the Israeli national command to decide to damage the Iranian infrastructure, could its forces accomplish this mission? The authors consider five components of a successful strike:

• Intelligence: To impede the production of fissile material requires incapacitating only three facilities of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. In ascending order of importance, these are the heavy water plant and plutonium production reactors under construction at Arak, a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan, and a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz .........................................

That Israeli forces have "a reasonable chance of success" unilaterally to destroy key Iranian nuclear facilities could help deter Tehran from proceeding with its weapons program. The Raas-Long study, therefore, makes a diplomatic deal more likely. Its results deserve the widest possible dissemination.

(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Israel; Philosophy; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: danielpipes; iran; iraniannukes; israel; terrorism; wot
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]

----------------------------

41 posted on 06/12/2007 2:05:21 PM PDT by SJackson (isolationism never was, never will be acceptable response to[expansionist] tyrannical governments)
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To: steveyp
F-15I. Hmmm... What does the I stand for?

"Islaminator."

42 posted on 06/12/2007 2:35:15 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows ("My wife's credit cards were stolen. I didn't report the theft. Whoever had them was spending less.")
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To: Basheva

“Israel has always stood alone.” AND...

“Goodbye beloved country of my youth.”

This is not your father’s Israel AND...

not much point to saying goodbye, just wait on the autopsy report.


43 posted on 06/12/2007 2:40:03 PM PDT by Harrius Magnus (Pucker up Mo, and your dhimmi Leftist freaks, here comes your Jizya!)
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To: Badeye

things will die down if and when that loud mouth president of iran turns up missing, which I hope is soon......


44 posted on 06/12/2007 2:47:56 PM PDT by sfvgto (is Marion Barry a democrat?)
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To: Badeye

If you take them at their word (that they intend to destroy Israel) then saturation bombing or use of tactical nukes is long overdue.

I personally think GWB will take out Tehran after the 2008 elections. Nothing to lose, and it will seal his legacy.


45 posted on 06/12/2007 2:56:49 PM PDT by KingofZion
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To: IrishMike

BTTT


46 posted on 06/12/2007 2:58:51 PM PDT by dennisw (The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge: but fools despise wisdom and instruction)
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To: IrishMike

If this is true, it’s sad beyond words, although not entirely unexpected. I think the current administration has pretty much given up on the middle east and now figures to let the next administration deal with it. Israel is going to have to deal with Iran on her own, like we all figured. Thank you, Mr President.


47 posted on 06/12/2007 2:59:05 PM PDT by Shaun_MD ("You can't trust Freedom when it's not in your hands" - Guns & Roses)
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To: IrishMike
"Can the Israel Defense Force in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program?"

Yes. Israel has re-equipped to do it and has more than "jets" to do it with.

But is it right that Israel should have to do it without help? No! Israel shouldn't have to save western Europe--especially with western Europe's attitude against Israel!

S. Korea, U.S. verifying reports on test of new N.K. missile in Iran: source
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1834307/posts
(4,000 kilometer range—will reach London and Rome)
48 posted on 06/12/2007 3:04:39 PM PDT by familyop
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To: KingofZion

Commander’s veto sank Gulf buildup (Admiral Fallon opposes military move against Iran?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1834992/posts

Top US War Boss: We Can’t Ignore Iran [No other way but “arrangement” with Iran.]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1840806/posts

Military action in Iran not in anyones interest, says Gates
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1843874/posts


49 posted on 06/12/2007 3:06:21 PM PDT by familyop
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To: sfvgto
"things will die down if and when that loud mouth president of iran turns up missing, which I hope is soon......"

That reminds me of the rhetoric during the '90s. If we would only have Saddam Hussein assassinated, war would be unnecessary.


50 posted on 06/12/2007 3:08:15 PM PDT by familyop
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To: Lewite

Thanks for the info.


51 posted on 06/12/2007 3:13:25 PM PDT by wjcsux ("You leave out God, and you substitute the devil."- Winston Curchill)
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To: familyop

can’t argue with that


52 posted on 06/12/2007 3:15:58 PM PDT by sfvgto (is Marion Barry a democrat?)
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To: Bon mots

The Arab world would come completely unhinged in you plan.


53 posted on 06/12/2007 3:58:58 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Reagan never called me a "bigot".)
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To: steveyp
Israel. Basically an F-15e with some upgrades to radar etc. they have the advantage of being some of the last off the assembly line.
54 posted on 06/12/2007 4:00:21 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Reagan never called me a "bigot".)
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To: Harrius Magnus

I am not an Israeli = I am an American.

And what I see happening in America today induces me to say:

Goodbye beloved country of my youth.


55 posted on 06/12/2007 4:05:09 PM PDT by Basheva
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To: mad_as_he$$
The Arab world would come completely unhinged in you plan.

If Iran acquires nukes, the Arab world will be pleased to bow down before the new Shia regional superpower.

56 posted on 06/12/2007 4:08:54 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: cynwoody

I think you are correct. Power sells on the Arab street


57 posted on 06/12/2007 4:17:04 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Reagan never called me a "bigot".)
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To: mad_as_he$$
"The Arab world would come completely unhinged in you plan."

You mean they're hinged now? LOL

58 posted on 06/12/2007 4:28:16 PM PDT by rageaholic
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To: rageaholic

Only slightly.


59 posted on 06/12/2007 4:33:54 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Reagan never called me a "bigot".)
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To: Lewite
yourarmstoisrael.org

There's yer link ................ FRegards

60 posted on 06/12/2007 5:43:10 PM PDT by gonzo (In Florida, inmates make cigarettes in jail that I buy, and I can go to jail for smoking one! WTF?)
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