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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: nwctwx
Damn, but that one looks familiar.

Let's hope the GFDL's the outlier here.

241 posted on 08/17/2007 11:11:33 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: Aquamarine
Yeah, now I start paying attention to see when/if I need to move my travel trailer from Rockport. Moved it from Port Aransas for Rita and of course she hit much further up the coast.
242 posted on 08/17/2007 11:12:01 AM PDT by nomorelurker (wetraginhell)
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To: NautiNurse

not surprising in an itermediate update as the new models are still coming in... plus they very rarely have big shifts from issuance to issuance.


243 posted on 08/17/2007 11:13:18 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: TornadoAlley3

He’s slowed a snippet to 22 mph. Still, that’s a remarkable forward speed for a rapidly strengthening storm.


244 posted on 08/17/2007 11:14:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NRA1995

Love it!


245 posted on 08/17/2007 11:14:48 AM PDT by Tide Gal
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To: nomorelurker

It may not even hit Texas, so many times they go north/ northwest after entering the Gulf of Mexico, time will tell.


246 posted on 08/17/2007 11:15:25 AM PDT by Aquamarine
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To: nwctwx

Good point, per usual. Thanks.


247 posted on 08/17/2007 11:15:42 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse
They did a special "full" update (#18). The only thing in the discussion, however, is just the upward tilt of intensity out to 48 hours (position estimates are unchanged):

          11 am   1:45 pm
initial   90 kt    110 kt
12hr VT  100 kt    115 kt
24hr VT  105 kt    120 kt
36hr VT  110 kt    125 kt
48hr VT  120 kt    130 kt
72ht VT  130 kt    130 kt
(intensity identical beyond this)

We'll see what the 5 pm update brings.

248 posted on 08/17/2007 11:25:51 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

Category 5 by Monday?

http://www.southeasttexaslive.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18721026&BRD=2287&PAG=461&dept_id=512588&rfi=6


249 posted on 08/17/2007 11:30:13 AM PDT by yorkie
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To: nomorelurker

Yeah, now I start paying attention to see when/if I need to move my travel trailer from Rockport. Moved it from Port Aransas for Rita and of course she hit much further up the coast........

I’m coming down to Port A from Dallas tonight for the week, just in case I have to move my stuff up north next week.


250 posted on 08/17/2007 11:31:48 AM PDT by Hang'emAll (WE WILL NOT DISARM!!!)
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To: yorkie

bite your tongue!


251 posted on 08/17/2007 11:31:52 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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Good view of Dean here.

Atlantic Satellite (active loop)

252 posted on 08/17/2007 11:37:33 AM PDT by Aquamarine
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To: nwctwx

Gawd, do NOT let that be so.


253 posted on 08/17/2007 11:40:22 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: NautiNurse

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1882691/posts?page=1

Hurricane News Scares 8-Year-Old Fla. Girl Into Trying To Ride Bike To Ohio
WKMG TV NEWS ^ | 8-17-2008

Posted on 08/17/2007 2:25:30 PM EDT by Cagey

DELAND, Fla. — An 8-year-old DeLand girl reported missing was found by police riding her bike as fast as she could to leave the state of Florida, fearing a massive Hurricane Dean was on its way.

The parents of Heather Snoke reported the girl missing Wednesday night after last seeing her riding on her bike, according to a newspaper report.

Volusia County sheriff’s deputies searching by helicopter eventually spotted Heather about a mile from home on East Plymouth Avenue, still on her bike.

She told officers that the recent news about hurricanes had scared her, and she wanted to ride her bike back home.


254 posted on 08/17/2007 11:41:32 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: nwctwx

Damn, I turned my back on Dean for an hour, and he’s up to 125 mph. Ungh.


255 posted on 08/17/2007 11:41:43 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: RDTF

>>bite your tongue!<<

Does that mean I’m banished to my room for ‘time out’? ;-)


256 posted on 08/17/2007 11:46:27 AM PDT by yorkie
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To: RDTF
An 8-year-old DeLand girl reported missing was found by police riding her bike as fast as she could to leave the state of Florida

Hey, at least she showed more foresight and inititative than the average New Orleans resident.

257 posted on 08/17/2007 11:48:22 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: Hang'emAll

My parents moved from Rockport to north of Austin last summer. Thank goodness - my dad almost pulled a Nagin with Rita approaching in 2005 - he hadn’t made any plans to leave when the evacuation order was issued and with all the hotels in the east half of the state filled with Katrina refugees.


258 posted on 08/17/2007 11:49:47 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: RDTF

Poor baby girl! Reminds me of my childhood tornado phobia.


259 posted on 08/17/2007 11:55:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: RDTF

Sounds like a good excuse to avoid punishment when caught riding your bike too far from home. Though my Mom wouldn’t have bought it.


260 posted on 08/17/2007 11:59:00 AM PDT by RGVTx
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