The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report (National Review)

National Review - Campaign Spot ^ | February 5, 2007 | Jim Geraghty

[greyfoxx39]

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

HORSERACE

The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report

I just got a big pile of exit poll data.

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.

Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual.

Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.

Winner take all. If these numbers hold - and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney.

Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.

Now on to the NYC-metro-area states:

New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.

New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.

Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

More or less what we expected.

Now the big Mitt states:

The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.

I think I’m ready to call that one.

Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.

But in McCain’s home state…

Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.

That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected.

On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee…

Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.

Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.

Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.

Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.

A barnburner!

Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.

Not a big state, but it's winner take all, so I'm sure Team Romney would take it.

Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

I can't believe I have to write this, but if you're in a state that votes today and you haven't yet, go out and vote. Don't let some report on a blog discourage you from exercising a right that our forefathers fought and died for.

02/05 05:59 PM

[sanchmo]

Getting even with Romney? If I remember correctly, it was Huck that started the bad blood back in November (2 months before Iowa and before Mitt started campaigning directly against Huck) with the “Mormons think Jesus & the devil are brothers” veiled attack. And It was Huck who publically told McCain after Iowa that “Now it’s your turn to kick his [Romney’s] butt” - again, long before Romney started any “negative” attacks on Huck.

From the beginning, Huck has been in it to undermine Romney in teh most divisive way. The very best that can be said about Huck is not very good.

[Moral Hazard]

“The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.”

It’s a good thing for Romney that Utah is winner-take-all. Imagine all the delegates McCain would get there otherwise.

[MeanWestTexan]

Are the black helicopters bothering you again?

Use the tinfoil.

[keepitreal]

Just heard that Huckabee is carrying Ark. with 33% of the vote, McCain at 29%, and Romney at 19%.

A McCain/Huckabee ticket will be fierce. Two candidates who can’t even get a majority in their home states. On the other hand Obama is sweeping the dem side.

[LS]

Same here. I worked hard for Bush in 2004; harder for Ken Blackwell in 2006. I will not even vote for McCain. If he wants to take the USS Titanic into an iceberg, I’m not going to stoke a boiler.

[gpapa]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1965471/posts?page=32#32

[Red Steel]

He has it all but done ... doesn't he?

Yes, it certainly looks like McCain and his friends have put many hours of thought and time into gaming the system.

A large cornucopia of tricks.

[keepitreal]

I agree with you. But I think somewhere along the way Huck has turned this into something personal.

[Osage Orange]

McCain has an I.Q. of 133

Ted Bundy supposedly had an I.Q. of 124.

Many say Adolf Hitler had an I.Q. of 141.

algore...134

Arnold Schwarzenegger a 135.

Bill ( The Rapist ) Clinton 137.

Doesn't mean they are very smart.............

[cookcounty]

"McCain has an I.Q. of 133.. "

How do you know that? Because the self-annointed "Straight-Talker" told you?

My dad said beware of people who feel compelled to constantlly remind you of how honest they are.

In the debate the other night, McCain looked like an IQ of the low 80's.

[jern]

no doubt about that

[Lib-Lickers 2]

you mean how Romney actually went to court to fight the pro homosexual marriage law?

[Moral Hazard]

“Did you know that Fred Thompson was John McCain’s Presidential Campaign’s national co-chairman in 2,000. Fred was firmly in the McCain camp in 2000 hoping he would knock off Bush. But it didn’t work. Fred has been a McCainiac ever since 2000 and that includes 2008 as well.”

Most of McCain’s betrayals of the Republicans have come since 2000. During that election, up until he started going after Christian conservatives, there wasn’t that much space between the two ideologically.

And if Fred’s candidacy was some sort of ploy to help McCain (and that is a pretty bizarre theory), why hasn’t he actually endorsed McCain?

[keepitreal]

“McCain has an I.Q. of 133.”

Did McCain issue a press release stating this?

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Huckabee looks to sweep the South. Too close to call in Georgia though and Missouri’s looking good for Romney last I heard. Might be getting setup for a brokered convention.

[tortdog]

If the sink starts to go under at the dock of the destination point, it doesn’t matter too much.

[VegasBaby]

I agree with you. But I think somewhere along the way Huck has turned this into something personal.

Absolutely. People may disagree with Romney's positions, but at least Romney hasn't made the criticisms personal the way that McCain and Huckabee have. Huckabee has fueled the anti-Mormon flames all the while playing the victim card and McCain is just plain nasty by flat-out lying about things Romney has said.

These two make my skin crawl.

[icwhatudo]

...and how he dusted off some obscure 100 year old law to keep homosexuals from coming to MA to get married.

[Red Steel]

In the debate the other night, McCain looked like an IQ of the low 80's.

With all that time tooting his horn in the Senate and Sunday morning news speaking to Timmy and Chrissy, one wold think his public speaking ability in debates a virtuoso.

[Red Steel]

Me too...got to go now and vote for Romney.