Latest: Dick Morris' 2008 Election Map Shows Big Shift for McCain

Newsmax.com ^ | 9/20/08 | Dick Morris

[DogBarkTree]

There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin — particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.

[Lady Heron]

NH, I haven’t seen one poll where McCain has a lead and hes says it’s leaning his way. NH is close and typically always is close. It’s a classic toss up state

Ok, I agree with all your points but could Morris still have access to inside party polls and the data on the states where the Bradley effect was the worse? This has got to have the party insiders weighing the polls differently does it not? I can't remember if NH was a big Bradley effect state or not but for some reason I was thinking it might have been, could be wrong.

[Seattle Conservative]

Unfortunately, I think you’re right about WA state and King County. That said, a lot of people (even some Dims) were really ticked w the election in 2004 and Fraduoire getting selected as Gov after 3 counts, and, none of us has forgotten. There are also ads running about her and the Indian tribes donations. Last poll I saw within the last week or so had Rossi +6 and IIRC McPalin -2. There are a lot of conservatives in WA state, but, the large population centers/counties along the I-5 corridor (Pierce (Tacoma), King (Seattle), and Snohomish (Everett)) usually go Dim.

I heard on the radio yesterday that in some poll Seattle came out ahead in several categories. Don’t remember all of them, but I had to shake my head and say, “Oh, please”, when Seattle was #1 for intelligent people. They sure must have been speaking to the folks in the burbs who are more conservative (like moi ;-) because the people in Seattle have voted that Socialist Dimwit McDermott in year after year - not too smart in my book, and, I won’t even go into discussing the dumbest Senator, Patty Osama Mama Murray, and another dimwit Senator Maria Can’tdowell - YIKES!

[tatown]

Then how do you explain the 4 to 7 point (6 point for Rasmussen) deterioration for McCain then? What event(s)?

I think it is primarily the current financial crises/bailouts/economy issue. Secondly, I’d attribute some of the move on Palin’s falling support among non-conservatives due to the constant media attacks. As much as we hate to admit it, the MSM has power to shape public opinion. After all, their power has propelled Obama.

[Political Junkie Too]

My stochastic analysis of Rasmussen state polling, as of today, has an expected value of McCain at 276.40 electoral votes, with a 63.31% chance of winning.

Here are my leanings of the states:

Safe (100%) R	Strong (86%-99%) R	Likely (70%-85%) R	Lean (60%-69%) R	Toss-Up	Lean (60%-69%) D	Likely (70%-85%) D	Strong (86%-99%) D	Safe (100%) D
Alabama	Georgia	Florida	Colorado	Pennsylvania	New Hampshire	Maine	Iowa	California
Alaska	South Carolina	Missouri	Indiana	Virginia	Washington	Michigan	-	Connecticut
Arizona	West Virginia	North Carolina	Nevada	-	Wisconsin	Minnesota	-	District of Columbia
Arkansas	-	-	New Mexico	-	-	Oregon	-	Delaware
Idaho	-	-	Ohio	-	-	-	-	Hawaii
Kansas	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Illinois
Kentucky	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Maryland
Louisiana	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Massachusetts
Mississippi	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	New Jersey
Montana	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	New York
Nebraska	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Rhode Island
North Dakota	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Vermont
Oklahoma	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
South Dakota	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Texas	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Utah	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Wyoming	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

-PJ

[1035rep]

Read the article on this thread, it breaks it down by the numbers and shows how the polls have been manipulated in order to prop up Obama.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2086637/posts

[1035rep]

See post 105.

[ReluctantDragon]

I have been seeing a lot more of them the past few weeks. I won’t put one on my car because I am worried that my care would be vandalized.

[oblomov]

Gallup tracking poll weightings were skewed to the Dems, so I’m not so inclined to believe that poll by itself.

[tatown]

For the Gallup poll I’d agree. For Rasmussen I wouldn’t agree. He is a pretty straight shooter and is certainly not a lefty yet even his poll have shifted to Obama.

[Lady Heron]

I read an even better one yesterday that someone had done on the internals of Gallup....a total joke.

I have said before from here on out the daily polls will be rigged to show a race so that the news has a race to sell and in hopes of helping the big zero. The only one worth wile are the inside party polls and state polls, the candidates need to know where to go.

The question is does Morris still have access to those polls and their thoughts on where the Bradley effect hurts the worse, now that would be interesting.

[tatown]

When I discuss poll movement, I am not referring to the Gallup poll. I am referencing all of the national polls.

[oblomov]

So Obama took back the lead from McCain after the post-election bump. I’m not sure this had anything to do with what happened on Wall Street.

[SlapHappyPappy]

I think Colorado and New Mexico are wishful thinking right now.

[waus]

Hey, there are actually two of us!!

I’m a Republican in the United Communist Counties Of California, too.

I know exactly how you feel.

[1035rep]

Then if you believe the Rasmussen poll, he said McCain is ahead on Economic Issues and the polling was done after the bad week. Here’s something else out of Rasmussen.

Rasmussen: Monday, September 15, 2008

Nationally, 63% say that McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 71% say McCain is prepared for the Presidency while just 35% say the same about Obama.

Let’s see if Obama can overcome these numbers.

[navymom1]

I think New Mexico is a lost cause, but Colorado might very likely pull through. If it doesn’t then we still have very strong chance in Penn and in Michigan. I don’t think Virginia or Ohio will go blue. I also think we’ll keep Florida. Pray hard for Colorado.

[Sir_Ed]

We tried to get bumper stickers from the local Josephine County GOP and they said they didn’t have any!

We got some pins to wear.

Ed

[tatown]

If you want to believe that McCain is ahead right now, you have that right (and I hope you are correct). I, on the otherhand, feel quite strongly that things are slipping away from him a bit right now. Whether he can get momentum back with the MSM so blatently biased towards Obama is anyone’s guess.

Either way I will do everything in my power to make sure Obama is never elected to lead this nation.

[MarkL]

I think that calling MO "strongly McCain" is extremely optimistic... Remember that the 3 population centers in the state: St Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia are all extremely liberal, and especially St Louis is known for rampant voter "irregularity." I recall one year where polls were kept open for hours after they were closed when a law suit was filed in the name of a dead person. And I believe that same year more votes were counted in St Louis County than there were legally registered voters.

Mark

[Aria]

I put mine on but I’m still worried about getting keyed. Obama’s supporters are such upstanding citizens with the vote fraud, hacking emails, in your face baloney...etc.