Polls show non-GOP voters tilting to Murkowski

ADN ^ | 2 Oct 10 | SEAN COCKERHAM

[GATOR NAVY]

Democratic Senate candidate Scott McAdams doesn't just have to campaign to win over undecided voters. He also needs to stop people who might have otherwise helped make up his base from going for Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write-in effort.

Polls released last week show the Republican Murkowski drawing significant support among Democrats and independents who might otherwise vote Democratic.

"There were two schools of thought prior to (Murkowski) jumping in," said Anchorage pollster and political consultant Ivan Moore. "The first was that Lisa would split the Republican vote and lead to the Democrat winning. The second was that Lisa would basically split the anti-Miller vote and basically decimate Scott McAdams' chances. The second is very much what's happening."

Moore often works for Democrats but urged Murkowski to get into the race as a write-in. Another Anchorage pollster and consultant, Jean Craciun, also released a poll this week in which she said 30 percent of registered Democrats who responded were supporting Murkowski and another 15 percent were undecided. Craciun's poll was of "super-voters" who'd voted in three of the last four elections.

Polling in this race is problematic. Just because people might choose Lisa Murkowski when offered her name as an option in a poll doesn't necessarily mean the same percentage will take the step of filling in a write-in oval and writing her name when faced with a ballot.

Polls also showed Murkowski comfortably winning the Republican primary, and she lost. For what it's worth, the most recent rash of polling -- Moore, Craciun and another poll from CNN/Time -- now show Miller in the lead with Murkowski closely trailing, or, in the case of Craciun, Murkowski leading. All showed McAdams a distant third.

[DemonDeac]

That woman may well cost us a seat that should be ours.