KeyHouseRaces 30 October Update - We added MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27 to the Master List

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 30 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Our list of Vulnerable Democrats just keeps growing. We have added 4 more Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27.

We would like to congratulate Barney Frank for making it on to our Master List in this last week of the 2010 election season.

So we now have 110 seats in play - 103 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

We also added OR-05 to our Tier 2 list that now has 8 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to the Master List in the closing week of this year's election season.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago there estimate was 59. Today their estimate is 65 seats. That's a very nice trend.

Here is the current summary:

And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". There are likely to be a few changes in the works by Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. Sabato has made his call. Rothenberg, Cook and CQ Politics may still make a few updates. If there are any changes in the next few dasy we will update the charts to reflect these changes no later than Monday evening.

 

Here is the current tally of "Expert" updates:

Experts: GOP 137 and Dems 25

And also worth noting:

Three Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 287 and Dems 43

Our index improved to +.035 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 4 new Dem seats which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

Worth noting: THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THE INDEX IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (103 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way  it looks right now.

Some statistics about the Master List:

• This week we have 68 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 63 a week ago and 61 two weeks ago.
• 89 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 83 a week ago and 78 two weeks ago.
• Only 14 of the 103 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average.

[Yaelle]

I will be stuck on a laptop most of the evening, so having that list to print would really ROCK!

[randita]

They’re liking your printable list idea.

[CPT Clay]

LSM grudgingly concede that the GOP has gotten their 39 seats?

Probably 11:01 Eastern.

[randita]

Are the "Experts" still running well behind the trend?

I think they are. The Senate races curve has flattened because there has been extensive polling and publicity on the Senate races for months. Much easier to poll 37 seats, most with candidates established well in advance than over 100 where many primaries were free for alls.

Also, a statewide dynamic is much easier to define than a district wide one.

It's amazing how many undecideds there still are in many of the House races compared to the Senate races. It's the undecideds breaking for the GOP House candidates recently ( they've started to pay attention to the election) that have caused the upward trend. No reason to think that those independents won't continue to break toward the GOP.

I think the NRCC strategy of spending early to bring swing districts into play and create momentum paid off. They got the train rolling early and once it got rolling, it couldn't be slowed or stopped.

[Political Junkie Too]

It's also interesting to note that the poll-based model crossed the 50% mark back on September 9, while the experts didn't cross the 50% mark until October 9.

-PJ

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

I’ll just let Wikipedia argue with you,

“When a study involves multiple statistical tests, some laymen assume that the confidence associated with individual tests is the confidence one should have in the results of the study itself. In fact, the results of all the statistical tests conducted during a study must be judged as a whole in determining what confidence one may place in the positive links it produces. For example, say a study is conducted which involves 40 statistical tests at 95% confidence, and which produces 3 positive results. Each test has a 5% chance of producing a false positive, so such a study will produce 3 false positives about two times in three. Thus the confidence one can have that any of the study’s positive conclusions are correct is only about 32%, well below the 95% the researchers have set as their standard of acceptance.”

When Wiki says, “some laymen assume”, they are talking about you. So aside from you, the only people I know that put faith in ensemble averages of data they don’t understand is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

[Kahuna]

checkmate

[Hush44]

thanks for the ping!

Looking better every week.....

[TheBattman]

My prediction - the Repubs will pick up a large chunk of seats and will soundly have control of the House after the election - BUT...

I also predict there will be some fairly close races in traditionally dRAT areas that will see incredible election fraud in a last-ditch effort to hold on. We have already seen blatant efforts in some races (Reid out in NV for example).

I believe some areas will have some of the worst voter fraud/ballot fraud ever seen.

And the Obama justice dept. will just ignore it (unless it is a Republican candidate being accused).

[Political Junkie Too]

You're talking about multiple studies of the same thing. I don't think that each individual district's election is considered the same thing.

I don't see how AZ-01 and NY-01 and UT-01 are all different tests of the same study. Sure, they're all "Congressional House Elections," but each district is different, with its own constituencies and its own politics and personalities.

I'm not doing 435 tests of one study, I'm doing one test each week for 435 studies.

-PJ

[GailA]

9th Congressional District race growing tighter
Bergmann a tougher fight than Cohen anticipated

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2618152/posts

Tennessee/Memphis

[DontTreadOnMe2009]

Man I sure hope so

This Cohen guy needs to be kicked out.

[GailA]

I’ve sent this to nearly every one on my email list SCARY

Dr. David Janda explains rationing and why

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HnkxIh62dQ&NR=1

Dr George explains in print what Dr Junda said on camera

Obamacare Endgame: Doctors Will be Fined or Jailed if they Put Patients First

by Dr. Elaina George
http://biggovernment.com/egeorge/2010/10/30/obamacare-endgame-doctors-will-be-fined-or-jailed-if-they-put-patients-first/

[GailA]

http://www.wreg.com/news/wreg-last-minute-campaigning,0,1483403.story

Steve Cohen, who greeted voters at a Democratic event several blocks away in Midtown, said that he had in fact been a part of historic bills to give people tax breaks, not tax hikes.

“We voted on the largest tax breaks in United States history in the 111th Congress. In fact, the stimulus bill was 40 percent tax breaks. There have been more tax breaks for 95 percent of the citizens of the middle class,” Cohen said.

Cohen is not knocking on doors this weekend, but is still passing out his signature buttons that he said he likes to collect.

He said that it is in fact a difficult year for some of his Democratic colleagues, but that he is not nervous himself. He remains unfazed by some demands to remove people who seem to be Washington insiders.

“We know how Washington works; we’re effective at making it work. That’s been my life. Some people say we don’t need anymore career politicians, but Thomas Jefferson was a career politician and so was George Washington,” Cohen said.

DON’T know where cohen learned his history. But TJ and GW were NOT career politicians!

[Drango]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/the-ultimate-hour-by-hour-district-by-district-election-guide/#more-2869

Great article from Nate Silver on what races to watch Tuesday night.

[StarFan]

Is Nan Hayworth in your district? We’re all pulling for her to defeat John Hall, here in NY19.

[NewEnglander]

Mayor Rudy showed up on Friday. The Lowell Sun and the the Lawrence Eagle Tribune and other local newspapers have recently endorsed him. Scott Brown won the district in Jan 2010. No polling is taking place. The Boston Globe endorsement was very very weak.

[God luvs America]

her district is 100 yards from my house...my district is nina hayowrth’s distict- a life timer rat winger...she’s beatable but the only thing worse then her is the way the GOP party is run in westchester county...

[NewEnglander]

Repost - Mayor Rudy showed up on Friday. The Lowell Sun and the the Lawrence Eagle Tribune and other local newspapers have recently endorsed him. Scott Brown won the district in Jan 2010. No polling is taking place. The Boston Globe's endorsement for Tsongas (D) was very very weak. The district is not totally liberal. It is going to be a long night.