Posted on 11/02/2010 1:25:42 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week.
But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn on their party and vote them out of power in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the Senate as well. You can also expect to hear the lame "We just didn't do a good job selling Obamacare" argument ad nauseum on CNN and MSNBC. And you must watch those channels tonight - they are way more fun than Fox on election nights like this.
This thread is focused on the competitive House races that we have been tracking for the better part of a year - the races on the KeyHouseRaces Master List. If you looking for general election news covering the Senate or the Governor races your best bet will be the Election Day 2010 LIVE THREAD.
We will be generating update summaries of the House races that have been called by trustworthy sources and will post those updates on KeyHouseRaces.com and here on FR. We will also be posting on Twitter as we see races that are on our list where the winner has been called.
We will be monitoring FR for our data so we are hoping that Free Republic stays up and that Freepers will be doing their normal good job of posting the latest poll results.
Just for reference, here are the Poll Closing Times via SwingStateProject:
NC-08 - Kissell D - wins
PA-03 Kelly - R wins
PA-11 Barletta - wins
NJ-03 Runyan-R wins
GA-08 Scott-R wins.
Palazzo overtaking Taylor in MS-04. This would be a big upset.
I'm not real-time capturing anything, but there will be plenty of time to compare results to predictions later.
-PJ
West in FL 22 still leads, 55-45 with 31% reporting. This is Miami area, though, so don’t be shocked if this takes awhile.
NY 20 Gibson will take this
New York House 20th District
Votes (207 of 474)
Christopher Gibson (R,C)45788
Scott Murphy (D,I,WF) 37398
OH-18 - Gibbs-R wins (Zach Space is history)
Nailbiter in VA-11 - 130 vote margin for D with 91% in.
Big news so far. Blue Dogs are near extinction.
MD-01 Andy Harris-R wins
PA-07 Meehan-R wins.
PA-10 Marino-R wins.
So far, no KHR candidate in Toss Up, Leans R or Likely R category has lost.
TX-27. Farenthold(R) maintaining over Ortiz(D). 49% - 46% with 76% reported. Big get if it holds.
LA-03 Landry-R wins
PA-12 Burns-R up by 2400 votes.
CO-04 Gardner-R wins - Betsy Markey gets the boot
MS-01 Nunnelee- R wins - Childers goes down
KHR Toss Ups won by GOP so far:
IN-09, PA-03, PA-07, PA-10, TN-04
KHR Leans D won by GOP so far:
VA-09
BIg one:
IL-17 Schilling-R wins 54-41 over Hare (I don’t care about the Constitution).
OH-16 Renacci-R wins.
LA-02 Cao-R loses.
Got it. Looks good. Twitter is coming fast and furious.
Tally at this point that I have:
27 GOP pick ups
1 GOP loss
Net +26 for GOP
| KeyHouseRaces Master List | |||||||||
| District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
| AL | 2 | Incumbent D | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Open D | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | Leans R | AR | 1 | ||
| AR | 2 | Open D | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||
| AZ | 1 | Incumbent D | Ann Kirkpatrick | Paul Gosar | Leans R | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Incumbent D | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 7 | Incumbent D | Raúl Grijalva | Ruth McClung | Leans D | AZ | 7 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Incumbent D | Gabrielle Giffords | Jesse Kelly | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Incumbent R | Ami Bera | Dan Lungren | Leans R | CA | 3 | ||
| CA | 11 | Incumbent D | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | Toss-Up | CA | 11 | ||
| CA | 20 | Incumbent D | Jim Costa | Andy Vidak | Toss-Up | CA | 20 | ||
| CA | 47 | Incumbent D | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | Leans D | CA | 47 | ||
| CO | 3 | Incumbent D | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Toss-Up | CO | 3 | ||
| CO | 4 | Incumbent D | Betsy Markey | WIN | Cory Gardner | Leans R | CO | 4 | |
| CO | 7 | Incumbent D | Ed Perlmutter | Ryan Frazier | Likely D | CO | 7 | ||
| CT | 4 | Incumbent D | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Leans D | CT | 4 | ||
| CT | 5 | Incumbent D | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Leans D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Open R | John Carney | WIN | Glen Urquhart | Leans D | DE | AL | |
| FL | 2 | Incumbent D | Allen Boyd | WIN | Steve Southerland | Leans R | FL | 2 | |
| FL | 8 | Incumbent D | Alan Grayson | WIN | Daniel Webster | Leans R | FL | 8 | |
| FL | 22 | Incumbent D | Ron Klein | Allen West | Toss-Up | FL | 22 | ||
| FL | 24 | Incumbent D | Suzanne Kosmas | WIN | Sandy Adams | Leans R | FL | 24 | |
| FL | 25 | Open R | Joe Garcia | David Rivera | Leans R | FL | 25 | ||
| GA | 2 | Incumbent D | Sanford Bishop | Mike Keown | Toss-Up | GA | 2 | ||
| GA | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Leans R | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Incumbent R | Colleen Hanabusa | Charles Djou | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | ||
| IA | 1 | Incumbent D | Bruce Braley | Ben Lange | Likely D | IA | 1 | ||
| IA | 2 | Incumbent D | Dave Loebsack | Marianneette Miller Meeks | Likely D | IA | 2 | ||
| IA | 3 | Incumbent D | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||
| ID | 1 | Incumbent D | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||
| IL | 8 | Incumbent D | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||
| IL | 10 | Open R | Dan Seals | Bob Dold | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | ||
| IL | 11 | Incumbent D | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | Likely R | IL | 11 | ||
| IL | 14 | Incumbent D | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||
| IL | 17 | Incumbent D | Phil Hare | WIN | Bobby Schilling | Toss-Up | IL | 17 | |
| IN | 2 | Incumbent D | Joe Donnelly | WIN | Jackie Walorski | Leans D | IN | 2 | |
| IN | 8 | Open D | W. Trent Van Haaften | WIN | Dr. Larry Bucshon | Likely R | IN | 8 | |
| IN | 9 | Incumbent D | Baron Hill | WIN | Todd Young | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | |
| KS | 3 | Open D | Stephene Moore | Kevin Yoder | Likely R | KS | 3 | ||
| KY | 6 | Incumbent D | Ben Chandler | Andy Barr | Leans D | KY | 6 | ||
| LA | 2 | Incumbent R | Cedric Richmond | WIN | Joseph Cao | Leans D | LA | 2 | |
| LA | 3 | Open D | Ravi Sangisetty | WIN | Jeff Landry | Likely R | LA | 3 | |
| MA | 4 | Incumbent D | Barney Frank | WIN | Sean Bielat | Likely D | MA | 4 | |
| MA | 10 | Open D | William Keating | Jeff Perry | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Incumbent D | Frank Kratovil | WIN | Andy Harris | Leans R | MD | 1 | |
| ME | 1 | Incumbent D | Chellie Pingree | Dean Scontras | Likely D | ME | 1 | ||
| ME | 2 | Incumbent D | Mike Michaud | Jason Levesque | Likely D | ME | 2 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D | Gary McDowell | WIN | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Leans R | MI | 1 | |
| MI | 7 | Incumbent D | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Incumbent D | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Leans D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Leans D | MN | 1 | ||
| MN | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Oberstar | Chip Cravaack | Likely D | MN | 8 | ||
| MO | 3 | Incumbent D | Russ Carnahan | Ed Martin | Likely D | MO | 3 | ||
| MO | 4 | Incumbent D | Ike Skelton | Vicky Hartzler | Toss-Up | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Incumbent D | Travis Childers | WIN | Alan Nunnelee | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | |
| MS | 4 | Incumbent D | Gene Taylor | Steven Palazzo | Toss-Up | MS | 4 | ||
| NC | 2 | Incumbent D | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | Leans D | NC | 2 | ||
| NC | 7 | Incumbent D | Mike McIntyre | Ilario Pantano | Leans D | NC | 7 | ||
| NC | 8 | Incumbent D | Larry Kissell | WIN | Harold Johnson | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | |
| NC | 11 | Incumbent D | Heath Shuler | Jeff Miller | Leans D | NC | 4 | ||
| ND | AL | Incumbent D | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||
| NH | 1 | Incumbent D | Carol Shea-Porter | WIN | Frank Guinta | Leans R | NH | 1 | |
| NH | 2 | Open D | Annie Kuster | Charlie Bass | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | Incumbent D | John Adler | Jon Runyan | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 | ||
| NM | 1 | Incumbent D | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||
| NM | 2 | Incumbent D | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||
| NV | 3 | Incumbent D | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | Leans R | NV | 3 | ||
| NY | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | Toss-Up | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Incumbent D | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Leans D | NY | 13 | ||
| NY | 19 | Incumbent D | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | Toss-Up | NY | 19 | ||
| NY | 20 | Incumbent D | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | Toss-Up | NY | 20 | ||
| NY | 22 | Incumbent D | Maurice Hinchey | George Phillips | Likely D | NY | 22 | ||
| NY | 23 | Incumbent D | Bill Owens | Matt Doheny | Toss-Up | NY | 23 | ||
| NY | 24 | Incumbent D | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||
| NY | 25 | Incumbent D | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | Leans D | NY | 25 | ||
| NY | 29 | Open D | Mathew Zeller | Tom Reed | Likely R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Incumbent D | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||
| OH | 6 | Incumbent D | Charlie Wilson | Bill Johnson | Toss-Up | OH | 6 | ||
| OH | 13 | Incumbent D | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | Likely D | OH | 13 | ||
| OH | 15 | Incumbent D | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | Likely R | OH | 15 | ||
| OH | 16 | Incumbent D | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Leans R | OH | 16 | ||
| OH | 18 | Incumbent D | Zach Space | WIN | Bob Gibbs | Toss-Up | OH | 18 | |
| OR | 5 | Incumbent D | Kurt Schrader | Scott Bruun | Toss-Up | OR | 5 | ||
| PA | 3 | Incumbent D | Kathleen Dahlkemper | WIN | Mike Kelly | Leans R | PA | 3 | |
| PA | 4 | Incumbent D | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | Likely D | PA | 4 | ||
| PA | 7 | Open D | Bryan Lentz | WIN | Pat Meehan | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | |
| PA | 8 | Incumbent D | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | Toss-Up | PA | 8 | ||
| PA | 10 | Incumbent D | Chris Carney | WIN | Tom Marino | Toss-Up | PA | 10 | |
| PA | 11 | Incumbent D | Paul Kanjorski | WIN | Lou Barletta | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | |
| PA | 12 | Incumbent D | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||
| PA | 17 | Incumbent D | Tim Holden | David Argall | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||
| RI | 1 | Open D | David Cicilline | John Loughlin | Leans D | RI | 1 | ||
| SC | 5 | Incumbent D | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Leans R | SC | 5 | ||
| SD | AL | Incumbent D | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | Toss-Up | SD | AL | ||
| TN | 4 | Incumbent D | Lincoln Davis | WIN | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Toss-Up | TN | 4 | |
| TN | 6 | Open D | Brett Carter | WIN | Diane Black | Likely R | TN | 6 | |
| TN | 8 | Open D | Roy Herron | WIN | Stephen Fincher | Likely R | TN | 8 | |
| TX | 17 | Incumbent D | Chet Edwards | WIN | Bill Flores | Likely R | TX | 17 | |
| TX | 23 | Incumbent D | Ciro Rodriguez | Quico Canseco | Toss-Up | TX | 23 | ||
| TX | 27 | Incumbent D | Solomon Ortiz | R. Blake Farenthold | Likely D | TX | 27 | ||
| UT | 2 | Incumbent D | Jim Matheson | Morgan Philpot | Likely D | UT | 2 | ||
| VA | 2 | Incumbent D | Glenn Nye | WIN | Scott Rigell | Leans R | VA | 2 | |
| VA | 5 | Incumbent D | Tom Perriello | WIN | Robert Hurt | Leans R | VA | 5 | |
| VA | 9 | Incumbent D | Rick Boucher | WIN | Morgan Griffith | Leans D | VA | 9 | |
| VA | 11 | Incumbent D | Gerald Connolly | Keith Fimian | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||
| WA | 2 | Incumbent D | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Leans D | WA | 2 | ||
| WA | 3 | Open D | Denny Heck | Jaime Herrera | Leans R | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Incumbent R | Suzan DelBene | Dave Reichert | Leans R | WA | 8 | ||
| WI | 3 | Incumbent D | Ron Kind | Dan Kapanke | Leans D | WI | 3 | ||
| WI | 7 | Open D | Julie Lassa | Sean Duffy | Leans R | WI | 7 | ||
| WI | 8 | Incumbent D | Steve Kagen | Reid Ribble | Leans R | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Open D | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||
| WV | 3 | Incumbent D | Nick Rahall | WIN | "Spike" Maynard | Likely D | WV | 3 | |
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) is ahead one point taking MAffei’s (D) house seat for NY with 20% of the vote in.
WHOOOOO HOOOO!!!!!!
I thought she was going to win.
SC-05 Mulvaney R wins
IL-11 Kinzinger-R wins
OH-06 (a late one to go on the master list) Johnson-R wins
NE-02 Terry-R wins
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