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Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%
WSJ ^ | March 14, 2011 | PHIL IZZO

Posted on 03/14/2011 2:29:02 PM PDT by fightinJAG

The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976, according to the average forecast of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.

That rate is well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February, but still remains high as economists expect job gains to come slowly. "The labor market is a scar that will be slow to fade," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.

On average, the 54 respondents—not all of whom answer every question—forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011. They forecast the U.S. economy will add about 190,000 jobs a month over the next year—an improvement from the depressed level of job creation so far in this recovery, but still too low to bring the unemployment rate down quickly.

While the 7.7% rate in November 2012 would be the highest in seven presidential election cycles, analysts point out that it is often the overall trend—rather than the level of joblessness—that determines an incumbent's fate. President Carter was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, lower than the level when he was elected but up from 5.6% earlier in his term. Meanwhile, President Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with the rate at 7.2%, but that was down sharply from the peak of 10.8% recorded in 1982.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; obama; rino; unemployment
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To: Little Pharma

Agreed.


41 posted on 03/14/2011 4:05:59 PM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: fightinJAG

Of course it will. They are democrats and they will fix the numbers, cook the books and lie over and over as they have been doing all along. The true unemployment is probably around 17-20%. They are democrats, they LIE, they cheat and they steal elections along with our money.

FUBO & FAD


42 posted on 03/14/2011 4:11:05 PM PDT by RJS1950 (The democrats are the "enemies foreign and domestic" cited in the federal oath)
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To: fightinJAG

I’m not seeing any new technology on the horizon to cause a spirt in hiring.


43 posted on 03/14/2011 4:14:05 PM PDT by DaxtonBrown (HARRY: Money Mob & Influence (See my Expose on Reid on amazon.com written by me!))
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To: Little Pharma
You miss the point. Employment is not turning around if it is 7.7% or double that if you use the U-6 rate. Obama and his MSM lackeys can spin it any way they want, but the fact is that the unemployment rate is high. You can't hide it. When your neighbor is out of a job, it is a recession, but when you don't have a job, it is a depression.

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig. The recession that started in December 2007 has been over since June 2009. Our recovery has been the slowest in history.


44 posted on 03/14/2011 4:16:51 PM PDT by kabar
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To: trapped_in_LA

They haven’t counted those that fall of the rolls for years and years. That’s nothing new.


45 posted on 03/14/2011 4:43:01 PM PDT by Netizen
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To: toddausauras

If we can’t defeat Baraq on $4 gasoline, 10% unemployment, surging food prices, and $1.5 trillion deficts, we deserve him.

People buy food and gas every week. No matter what the MSM tells them, it’s a big @ss problem. I believe Carville’s law still applies.


46 posted on 03/14/2011 4:48:05 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Little Pharma

“For independents to turn on him, they would have to admit they were wrong and that they are partially responsible for this mess.”

No they won’t; they’ll vote for the Repub and tell their friends they voted for Obama (independents need to make a living/buy gas & groceries like everyone else). That is why Dems fear the secret ballot.

I don’t see Obama running in the general election in 2012; the Dem donors and candidates “down the ticket” from him have too much to lose.


47 posted on 03/14/2011 5:10:41 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: kabar

“When your neighbor is out of a job, it is a recession, but when you don’t have a job, it is a depression.”

That is why no amount of spinning will save the Dems; no matter how rosy a picture they paint, Americans know we’re MUCH WORSE OFF than 30 months ago.


48 posted on 03/14/2011 5:13:20 PM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: fightinJAG

It’s a fake number, so who give a flip what some statistician wannabe from some university.

The real rate of unemployed is easily 12% and with the underemployed thrown in, it may be around 19%.

With the price of everything going up and Obama’s abject and conscious failure to drill in the Gulf, he is going to hammered in the debates.

He is going to lose his keystone legislation “ObamaCare” and his Ox will be completely gored by the end of the year.

If he doesn’t say “I’m done” first.


49 posted on 03/14/2011 5:15:08 PM PDT by Vendome ("Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it anyway")
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To: Little Pharma
"If they are duped into believing employment turns around they will have the cover that they need to vote for him again."

There, fixed it.
50 posted on 03/14/2011 5:42:50 PM PDT by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: MrEdd

Tingle Dingle Barry.


51 posted on 03/14/2011 5:48:06 PM PDT by ViLaLuz (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: fightinJAG

A fair estimate if you ignore the other 10% that don’t have jobs, or perhaps manage a few hours/week.


52 posted on 03/14/2011 5:55:21 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Read "The Grey Book" for an alternative to corruption in DC))
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To: fightinJAG

Hey, the unemployment rate is whatever OPrecious wants it to be. We all know that 8.9% was BS.


53 posted on 03/14/2011 6:03:34 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: brownsfan
I don’t think the Republicans will give us anything better.

from what I've seen, you may be right. Like your tag line, BTW. Very true.

54 posted on 03/14/2011 6:20:57 PM PDT by Hardastarboard (Bringing children to America without immigration documents is child abuse. Let's end it.)
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To: fightinJAG

Yep! Just apply a little more of that Million Man March math...I could actually get down to -3.5%.


55 posted on 03/14/2011 7:37:56 PM PDT by SuperLuminal (Where is another agitator for republicanism like Sam Adams when we need him?)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; Delacon; ...

Thanks fightinJAG.
The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976... well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February... On average, the 54 respondents... forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011

56 posted on 03/14/2011 8:49:19 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Yes, even if it’s 25%, it will be “7.7%.”


57 posted on 03/15/2011 5:02:54 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: TheOldLady

/bingo


58 posted on 03/15/2011 7:16:27 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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