Bolton skeptical about China’s economy

The Right Scoop ^ | April 1, 2011 | John Bolton

[Ooh-Ah]

See Video from Greta Van Susteran's show! Bolton skeptical about China’s economy

Just when you thought all Bolton could talk about was foreign policy, he does a great segment on China’s economy vs our economy and debt.

To sum it up, Bolton really doesn’t agree with Trump that we are getting ripped by China. Of course they are cheating and stealing from us in several ways, but he doesn’t agree that China’s economy will out grow the US economy in 10 to 15 years. In fact he believes that all these tales of China’s super-growing economy could be greatly exaggerated.

He makes a lot of good points to substantiate this.

Impressive. I really hope he runs for president!

[Rockitz]

I’ve been to Shanghai 3 times over the last 4 years. There are certainly a lot of near empty 40 story buildings in Shanghai and the western style developments in the burbs are ghost towns as well. The growth dictated by the ruling oligarchy and not based on any economic demand.

[Bridge_toofar]

China is on target to be the world’s biggest economy in 10 years or less. I never said life in China is perfect. You are absolutely right about lack of environmental protections. Pollution is awful in industrial cities.

But China will soon be the world’s largest economy in the world. China was the worlds biggest economy for over thousand years in history, and it will again occupy that spot.

[Jonty30]

Being the biggest economy doesn’t mean much if you have no workers to work.

China, in the last couple of years had to practically double worker wages becausre nobody has been taking jobs.

[PhilDragoo]

Bolton's perception is better grounded, while less sexy than Trump's.

Bolton says our spending and debt per se are destabilizing--no matter who owns the debt.

That the Chinese have their own instabilities:

Government banks lend to government companies--need we add the corruption is rampant--

--and the citizens are continually protesting, land protests, labor protests--

He mentions the tens of millions of men who can never marry due to the one-child policy eliminating female babies--

Trump got burned--did he miss that Loral-Hughes, C. Michael Armstrong and Bernard L. Schwartz and William Jefferson Clinton conspired to sell China our missile secrets--treasonous behavior warranting the most summary punishment--

--and now we have Obamao bowing to China, giving Putin our nuclear advantage--as well as UK's nuclear secrets--

Bolton is a dangerous man for the globalists--

He is an American.

[dixiechick2000]

Bump that! Bolton and Trump aren’t even in the same league!

Love the graphic!

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

People back in the 1950s used to hyperventilate about how fast the Soviet economy was growing, too.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

I certainly like Bolton but will continue to reach quite different conclusions about China.

[grey_whiskers]

It's easy to build infrastructure with stolen technology (no R&D costs) and slave labor.

Nice try, though.

[grey_whiskers]

My bet is that China will implode in about 10-12 years.

Cheers!

[BobL]

“It’s easy to build infrastructure with stolen technology (no R&D costs) and slave labor.

Nice try, though.”

...and your point is??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[grey_whiskers]

...and your point is??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand

Either that you (and China) are building your house on sand, or else you can go pound sand.

Cheers!

[ToranagaSama]

“They basically bought the technology cheaply from ever willing western industry.”

Or just steal it, because there’s no-one that can stop them when it’s officially sanctioned by the government.

[ponder life]

My bet is that China will implode in about 10-12 years.

Well, that possibility always exists. The only question is, what is the likelihood of it happening. And China's current economic dynamic points to continued growth and not an implosion.

Most of China's debt is internal and not external. That's why the Japanese government, with a debt of 200% of GDP hasn't had to face the same difficulties as Ireland, Greece and Portugal, even though those three countries have lower government debts as a % of GDP than Japan. A slow bleed, maybe, but not an imminent default.

And while we don't know the degree of China's internal debt, who is to say they are crushing debts, it could go the other way in that it turns out not to be so debilitating and is manageable.

In recent history (past few decades), there are three well known cases of economic calimity, Argentina, Brazil and Russia. In the first two, both Argentina and Brazil had external debts that were debilitating. And Russia, made a sudden transition from government ownership of industries to private ownership overnight.

China has neither debilitating external debts nor will they make a sudden transition. That's why she is resisting calls for a sudden appreciation of the yuan and only allow about 3%-5%/yr.

Things could always go wrong, unforseen circumstances, etc., but unlikely. However, I do feel it is likely that China's GDP, by 2020, will be slightly larger than the US.

2011 was the year it was made official that China surpassed Japan as the world's second largest economy in 2010. It was news, but it really wasn't news. The year 2021 will be the same. When all the numbers come out, it will be made official that 2020 was the year China became the largest economy in the world. And by 2021, much like 2011, it will be news but not really news at all.

[grey_whiskers]

Demographics coupled with pollution and loss of clean water and arable land will finish you off.

If not the tens of millions of young men with no mate.

An emergency stopgap measure in this regard would be to popularize the Village People and Richard Simmons; but then you would face tens of millions of AIDS cases in short order.

Your only real hope is the underground Christian Church.

[ponder life]

Demographics coupled with pollution and loss of clean water and arable land will finish you off.

Those issues will be addressed, of course. China is embarking on a water diversion project that will be the largest in history.

As far as arable land, there's enough land in China.

An emergency stopgap measure in this regard would be to popularize the Village People and Richard Simmons

You seem quite knowledgeable with these public personalities. Did you say you were once "In the Navy"? ;)

Your only real hope is the underground Christian Church.

You have part of it right. But it is the above ground church that is having the greatest impact in urban China. Christians involved in business and politics is what is going to drive China towards being a developed nation.

We are all fallen creatures, whether it be corruption in China or proud Westerners. I'm absolutely convinced, that many NEO Con Christians in the Western world really don't want China to succeed even if they could be convinced that Christian involvement in China's politics and business is at the heart of a rising China. The sinful nature of man, the pride of life, etc., is too powerful of a force to want that (a rising China). To give up an old way of how the world is formerly seen, a way that is comfortable to them and allow and make way for a new balance in the world power structure to succeed, is more than most NEO Con Christians can bear.

And I know, that to some degree, you agree with that assessment ;)

[familyop]

Yeah, sure...what we’ve been hearing from popular politics for over three years.

[neutronsgalore]

I hope China at least gets the Russian Far East,....

I don't. Given China's culture and history I don't think a powerful China is going to be a friendly China. I personally wouldn't mind a falling-out between Russia and China that resulted in Russia using up it's nuclear arsenal on China.

[neutronsgalore]

.....if they could be convinced that Christian involvement in China's politics and business is at the heart of a rising China.

That's very hopeful of you, but they can't be convinced because there's no evidence to convince them. So far the most detailed anaylsis of the rising power of China in particular, and East Asia in general, is provided in Eamonn Fingleton's IN THE JAWS OF THE DRAGON. You should give it a read and your opinion might become a little chilled.

[potlatch]