2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[Cato in PA]

I disagree. I think that Perry is genuinely in it because he wants to win.

Now if you want a stalking horse - well, stalking harpy - look no farther than Michele Bachmann. I don’t know what it will take to bring her campaign to a close.

[Prokopton]

Wrong. Gingrich was a baptist the majority of his life. He wins SC going away.

A serial adulterer as a Baptist who is now a Catholic, riding the momentum of being 4th in IA and 4th in NH. I wouldn't be too confident of SC. Huckabee got 30% in SC, only 3 points behind McCain.

[gswilder]

You can call it shilling, I call it stating my opinion about what I think will happen. I never said “vote for Romney”. Some are saying they think Perry, or Newt or Paul will win. Lets ban all of them. Or are we becoming DU?

[Leto]

Santorum is a nice guy but listening to his speak is as exciting as watching paint dry. He wouldn’t win the election if he is the nominee.

[BenKenobi]

Well, the people of Iowa don’t see it and Santorum is eating into Perry’s support.

Whatever happens from here on, Santorum’s won himself a ticket to Florida. So he’ll be going up against whomever the other ‘not Romney, not Paul’.

Perry and Newt are fighting it out for the other slot.

[JohnBovenmyer]

Both Newt and Perry scored less than Fred Thompson in ‘08. IIRC Fred stayed in for SC and then hung it up. Mitt currently is 0.6% below his ‘08 take.

[grey_whiskers]

We are at 11% unemployment, meaning we are at 89% employment.

Gay marriage is still an issue.

(BTW, while I'm talking to you, congrats on the new arrival. Getting any sleep yet?)

Cheers!

[Windflier]

Brett B attempting to tally votes/margins but having trouble mastering the intricacies of a hand-held calculator...threw it to break.

I've been reading similar comments on the thread. Simply pathetic. You'd think they'd have someone off-screen keeping the numbers, to feed them quickly to the on-screen commentators.

I'm not watching Fox myself. I prefer to monitor the live FR threads and catch the live coverage on talk radio.

[Mozilla]

Just like Rick Perry...a dingbat.

[jjotto]

Also Story County. Both look like Romney wins.

[Antoninus]

So if you don’t like Romney, fine. But don’t support him, and take 4 more years of Obama. It’s not who we want. It’s only who we can choose from.

With all due respect, shove it.

I am done voting for liberals. Both Romney and Obama are disasters for conservatives. If you want to vote for them, be my guest. But I will not. Understand?

[World'sGoneInsane]

You've been wanting Perry to drop out since August 13...LOL.

Tonight is one step in the process. He is going to S.C.

[only1percent]

"Romney has to be running scared now. Conservatism wiped him up. Conservatives won 53+% of the raw total and when you throw out the meaningless Paul stink kook vote, conservatism 70+ percent of the real vote."

.I'm not so sure. The nominating process is still driven by pluralities, not absolute majorities, in two important senses. First, at the level of bound delegates, there are plenty of winner-take-all states(whether statewide or by district) and even the proportional states are still going to award disproportionately more delegates to the plurality winner. Second, many primaries and (especially) caucuses do not elect and bind delegates; instead, they either elect delegates to subsequent county and state conventions, or elect delegates in whole or in part who are pledged but not bound. All these processes will result in delegates going to the national convention who will support whoever has the most pledged delegates, even if it is less than a majority.

"Conservatism" really only has a few more contests to pick a contender and see the rest drop out, or Romney will take it easily. I am less convinced than the average FReeper that Romney can't win pluralities even if it is down to a three-way race (him, Paul, and survivor among Santorum, Perry and Gingrich), but it will definitely stay interesting for quite a while.

[Slings and Arrows]

P.S. Objectively, there’s no rational reason for Paul - he’s not going to get the nod, but he made a strong showing and is in a prime position to be a spoiler. (Of course, rational is not a word I often use in reference to Ron Paul.)

[Windflier]

Paul got the overwhelming Dem crossover vote and finished third. That’s as good as it’s going to get for him. He’s finished.

I sure as hell hope so. Time to thin the herd, starting with the sick one.

[gswilder]

Whats the current vote total?

[Tramonto]

Perry needs to get out now. He is only helping Romney at this point.

[Suz in AZ]

With the way things are, I don’t think he has to be exciting. He just has to be believable.

[fatima]

Do you know someone like that?