Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert
While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:
Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.
Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state. His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%. Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.
Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters. He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s. Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51). Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.
Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured. With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama. That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:
John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”
And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:
A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.
Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.
Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.
Boggles the mind, doesn't it? Santorum's numbers are quickly reverting to trend, and Perry's have remained in the basement, yet their supporters continue to push for them to hang in there for a miracle.
Good grief. The only miracle, is that our side is too bone headed to see that we're about to manufacture our own defeat to the RINO establishment, and ultimately to the Marxist.
This is ridiculous. Rasmussen is in cahoots with Fox News. What’s wrong with these people? I even heard Michelle Malkin this morning sticking up for Romney. No way I believe Romney is that much ahead in Fl. Besides, if Newt pulls out a win in SC, any momentum for Romney will drastically decline. [big sigh]
This statement may go down in history to attributing to the downfall of America.Obama is LOLing at the schism I have been saying this for months.There is an article that the SC tea party endorses Paul and the only other speaker of the tea tea party Palin? is silent on any endorsement.We have to get our crap together before it is too late.Someone needs to step up to the plate and allign all behind one candidate.
Ah, but Perry IS registering, i.e., he's getting some votes. As close as this contest is (remember the 8 vote margin of victory in Iowa?), every vote counts.
Every vote that he frees up by dropping out, is going to go to one or the other of the two conservatives who have a chance of beating Romney. The man has been mathematically eliminated from serious contention, and needs to leave the race for the greater good.
As the saying goes; you are entitled to your own opinion but you are not entitled to your own facts.
If it were switched with Gingrich and Santorum Gingrich supporters would not bend in Gingrich stepping down. They would hope for a miracle.Very few will bend on they’re candidate.We need someone from the tea party to nationally step up to the plate and endorse someone.Gov. Scott of Fla. refuses (awhile back he was endorsing Perry but now he won’t endorse anyone)...Paul is the spoiler as the SC tea party supposedly endorsed him and in the end we are all screwed.
I happen to have never had a diehard set candidate.I am waiting.But others won’t bend.Herein lies the entire problem.
http://www.wltx.com/news/article/167867/2/SC-Tea-Party-Favors-Ron-Paul
http://htpolitics.com/2012/01/04/rick-scott-still-not-endorsing-presidential-candidate/
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60762.html
Perry can be a strong and motivating voice in the course of the election without sucking votes away from the other two conservatives (by remaining in it).
His influence doesn't hinge upon his presence in the race. What does hinge upon his presence in the race, are real, countable votes. With the polling margin as thin as it is going into SC, it's hair-raising to think that the few votes Perry takes from Gingrich might put Romney across the line for the win.
Get out now, Perry, and use whatever pull you have with your supporters to help put Newt ahead of Romney.
Well, his support of that awful internet act would be a problem.
But, otherwise he’s fine.
must be nice to have 100’s of millions and be able to buy the presidency.
Yep see my last post.Yesterday there was an article here about Gingrich stepping out and getting behind Santorum.The Gingrich only fans were silent and did not like this.
We are all screwed.
Also, people need to be realistic about Santorum. He cannot win the general election and people need to face that. He can go out now, or after SC and endorse Newt. Regardless, he will be out later. If Santorum stays in to take votes away from Newt, he may end up with some scrap of an appointment from Romney, but Santorum supporters will be putting in a person who has the opposite social views as they have, Romney or Obama. Santorum voters need to bail on him now. They are holding out for their perfect social candidate and will end up getting the worst. I can understand why people support him, but don't understand how they believe he can win. Romney has been chosen and the only one they are afraid of is Newt. I also think they know if they throw something Paul's way he will swing his voters to Romney. Paul has pretty much said that. Santoum vs Romney/Paul voters, NO WAY. Heck, even Newt won't be able to do that unless Santorum backs Newt.
its frustrating to see the conservative vote split and because of ego’s they won’t step aside to defeat the Rino elitist establishment slap in the face to conservatives snake.
This must be a function of people not paying any attention to the race at all besides a newspaper headline or two. Just compare it to movies. If you had no idea what movies were out now but you heard one of them was #1 two weekends in a row, you’d assume it was a good movie. If someone asked you what movie you wanted to see this weekend, you’d probably pick that one.
This is a function of ignorant voters who don’t do their own research on the candidates and a 21st century media machine that is as well-oiled as it ever has been. The media can steamroll its message right over people who are too lazy and disinterested to seek out any information that isn’t plastered right in front of their face.
Not true. Many of us Newt supporters were formerly supporting Cain, and before that, we were holding out for Sarah Palin to enter the race.
When she made it clear that that wasn't going to happen, we did what we had to, and threw our support behind someone who was A) in the race, B) was polling well enough to contend against Romney, and C) came closest to what we wanted in a candidate. When he was rubbed out, we shifted our support again.
If, as you say, the circumstances were switched between the three conservatives left in the race, we'd do it again, for the greater good.
I've already changed horses twice in this race. It's time for others to do the same. We need to coalesce around the only remaining conservative who has a prayer of taking out Mittens - AND who has what it takes to beat Obama in the general, and that is Newt.
Santorum's record is fine? Check this out:
What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like
NEA
Voted for taxpayer funding of the National Endowment for the Arts.
Voted against a 10% cut in the budget for National Endowment for the Arts.
Bankruptcy
Voted for a Schumer amendment to make the debts of pro-life demonstrators not dischargeable in bankruptcy.
Defense and Foreign Policy
Voted for the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Voted against requiring the President to certify that the CWC is effectively verifiable.
Voted against requiring the President to certify that that Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, and all other countries determined to be state sponsors of terror have joined CWC prior to submitting the instrument of ratification.
Voted for the START II Treaty.
Voted to allow the sale of supercomputers to China.
Voted to ban anti-personnel landmines.
Voted against increasing defense spending offset by equivalent cuts in non-defense spending.
Voted to require that Federal bureaucrats get the same pay raises as uniformed military.
Voted to allow food and medicine sales to state sponsors of terror and tyrannical regimes such as Libya and Cuba.
Voted to limit the President’s authority to impose sanctions on nations for reasons of national security unless the sanctions were approved by a multilateral regime.
Voted against requiring Congressional authorization for military action in Bosnia.
Voted to give $25 million in foreign aid to North Korea.
Voted to weaken alien terrorist deportation provisions. If the Court determines that the evidence must be withheld for national security reasons, the Justice Department must still provide a summary of the evidence sufficient for the alien terrorist to mount a defense against deportation.
Voted against delaying the India Nuclear until the President certified that India had agreed to suspend military-to-military exchanges with Iran.
Voted against the Conventional Trident Missile Program.
Nominations
Voted for Richard Paez to the 9th Curcuit (cloture).
Voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Circuit Judge.
Voted for Richard Holbrooke to be Ambassador to the UN.
Voted for Margaret Morrow to be District Judge.
Voted twice for Marsha Berzon to the 9thg Circuit.
Voted for Mary McLaughlin to be District Judge.
Voted for Tim Dyk to be District Judge.
Voted for James Brady to be District Judge.
Labor
Voted against National Right to Work Act.
Voted against repeal of Davis-Bacon Prevailing union wages.
Voted for Alexis Herman to be Secretary of Labor.
Voted for mandatory Federal child care funding.
Voted for Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Voted for Job Corps funding.
Voted twice in support of Fedex Unionization.
Voted against allowing a waiver of Davis-Bacon in emergency situations.
Voted for minimum wage increases six times here here here here here and here.
Voted to require a union representative on an IRS oversight board.
Voted to exempt IRS union representatives from criminal ethics laws.
Voted against creating independent Board of Governors to investigate IRS abuses.
Guns
Voted to require pawn shops to do background checks on people who pawn a gun.
Voted twice to make it illegal to sell a gun without a secure storage or safety device.
Voted for a Federal ban on possession of “assault weapons” by those under 18.
Voted for Federal funding for anti-gun education programs in schools.
Voted for anti-gun juvenile justice bill.
Reform
Voted for funding for the legal services corporation.
Voted twice for a Congressional pay raise.
Voted to impose a uniform Federal mandate on states to force them to allow convicted rapists, arsonists, drug kingpins, and all other ex-convicts to vote in Federal elections.
Voted for the Specter “backup plan” to allow campaign finance reform to survive if portions of the bill were found unconstitutional.
Voted to mandate discounted broadcast times for politicians.
Voted for a McCain amendment to require state and local campaign committees to report all campaign contributions to the FEC and to require all campaign contributions to be reported to the FEC within 24 hours within 90 days of an election.
Immigration
Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators.
Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens.
Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.
Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to the earnings of their sponsors.
Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border partrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.
Taxes
Voted against a flat tax.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.
Voted twice for internet taxes.
Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.
Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.
Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.
Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.
Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.
Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.
Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.
Welfare
Voted against food stamp reform.
Voted against Medicaid reform.
Voted against TANF reform.
Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion.
Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.
Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.
Waste
Sponsored an amendment to increase Amtrak funds by $550 million.
Voted to use HUD funds for the Joslyn Art Museum (NE), the Stand Up for Animals project (RI) and the Seattle Art Museum’s Olympic Sculpture Project (WA).
Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion.
Voted to increase NIH funding by $1.6 billion.
Voted to increase NIHnding by $700 million.
Voted to for a $2 million earmark to renovate the Vulcan Monument (AL).
Voted for a $1 billion bailout for the steel industry.
Voted against requiring that highway earmarks would come out of a state’s highway allocation.
Voted to allow Market Access Program funds to go to foreign companies.
Voted to allow OPIC to increase its administrative costs by 50%.
Voted against transferring $20 million from AmeriCorps to veterans.
Voted for the $140 billion asbestos compensation bill.
Voted against requiring a uniform medical criteria to ensure asbestos claims were legitimate.
Voted to increase community development programs by $2 billion.
Spending and Entitlements
Voted to make Medicare part B premium subsidies a new entitlement.
Voted against paying off the debt ($5.6 trillion at the time) within 30 years.
Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF.
Voted to raid Social Security instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.
Health Care
Voted to allow states to impose health care mandates that are stricter than proposed new Federal mandates, but not weaker.
Voted twice for Federal mental health parity mandates in health insurance.
Voted against allowing consumers the option to purchase a plan outside the parity mandate.
Education
Voted to increase Federal funding for teacher testing.
Voted to increase spending for the Department of Education by $3.1 billion.
Voted against requiring courts to consider the impact of IDEA awards on a local school district.
Energy
Voted to allow the President to designate certain sites as interim nuclear waste storage sites in the event that he determines that Yucca Mountain is not a suitable site for a permanent waste repository. Those sites are as follows: the nuclear waste site in Hanford, Washington; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; Barnwell County, South Carolina; and the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee.
Voted to make fuel price gouging a Federal crime.
That would be one way for Rick Perry to do some damage to Romney, and still do the right thing. I can agree with that strategy.
[ Todd Palin endorsed Gingrich. ]
According to Sarah, “He Went Rougue”
LOL
At this point I’m willing to say that whichever two of the NewtRicks finish behind in SC should drop out and endorse the other one. I believe Dick Morris yesterday said that was basically the only possible path he saw for anyone to defeat Romney.
What might need to happen is for a wide swath of Tea Party-esque groups to get together and sign a pact that they will all hold their own polls, combine their results and then all agree to endorse whichever candidate comes out on top. Might be too late now but that would be a great way for the Tea Party to get influence over the primary next time.
Or it could be Santorum.We will not know until SC decides.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2831381/posts
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