US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely (October Surprise)

UK Guardian ^ | February 17, 2012 | Chris McGreal

[C19fan]

Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.

The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran's already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran.

.........................................................

But other official analysts working on Iran have identified what one described as a "sweet spot", where the mix of diplomacy, political timetables and practical issues come together to suggest that if Israel launches a unilateral assault it is more likely in September or October, although they describe that as a "best guess".

[DJ Taylor]

Democrat Game Plan:

Iran foolishly commits act of war against U.S. in the Gulf.

U.S. declares war with Iran during an election year.

The American people rally around their President during war time and reelect him.

Democrats riding in on Obama’s coat tails take control of both Houses of Congress.

The Iranian people joyously achieve Martyrdom and enter Paradise.

Iran becomes radioactive and uninhabitable for a half life of ten thousand years.

Obama is able to appoint two Supreme Court Justices during his second term.

Obama is declared President for Life.

The American people live happily ever after in total bankruptcy.

[DJ Taylor]

Democrat Game Plan:

Iran foolishly commits act of war against U.S. in the Gulf.

U.S. declares war with Iran during an election year.

The American people rally around their President during war time and reelect him.

Democrats riding in on Obama’s coat tails take control of both Houses of Congress.

The Iranian people joyously achieve Martyrdom and enter Paradise.

Iran becomes radioactive and uninhabitable for a half life of ten thousand years.

Obama is able to appoint two Supreme Court Justices during his second term.

Obama is declared President for Life.

The American people live happily ever after in total bankruptcy.

[tet68]

Unexpected action in mid-east comes as October surprise?

[SoFloFreeper]

So Obama’s policies insisting on sanctions are a failure. So fire him.

[SoFloFreeper]

Or, Americans see Obama as Carter: failing with Iranian whack jobs, and fire his ass in a landslide.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks C19fan.

...the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.

This is a new development, a mere three years old.

[Magnum44]

For that to work, Obama will have to convince NATO to start the war, cause he doesn’t have the nads to take responsibility for such action himself...Nope, if this type of action occurred the reaction would be like Carter and the hostage crisis, ending in a repub landslide.

[Iron Munro]

Pre-election September Surprise coming up.

Get ready for $15 gasoline, $5,000 gold, $5 pork & beans and four more years of Obama-nomics.

[mkjessup]

You forgot one thing:

* "0bama regime stalls and delays action long enough for Iran to lob a nuke at Israel, which would effectively be a second Holocaust, then says 'oh that's so terrible' and takes out a few token Iranian targets to the cheers of leftists and anti-Semites everywhere, and stupid effin Jewish 'Rats in the U.S. STILL vote for the Kenyan Usurper."

No charge for that minor addition to your list.

[caww]

Looks like USA has drones flying over Syria now....supposedly gathering evidence for the International community and denying any other purposes.

We all know Syria is the arm of Iran. This is going to heat up even further....

[RicocheT]

Time to rent the video “Wag the Dog” again. Obama needs a war to distract the voters from the terrible economy, insane government spending and malaise the USA is in due to his 4 years of mis rule.

He could draw us into a very bad conflict that spins out of control. Iran is no Serbia or Bosnia. Iran has lots of military ability due to years of buying hardware and expertise due to plenty of oil money. Iran has a huge population and a lot of friends, including Russia and China.

[Hoosier-Daddy]

The last person on the planet I would want running a war id the Corpseman-in-Chief.

[Glenn]

The incentives Iran has to produce a bomb(s) are staggering.

Just think of the franchise or licensing income stream. It'll be worth trillions.

[RedMDer]

All contributions are for the
Current Quarter Expenses.

[God luvs America]

given the state of the economy, the price of gas and the vilification of Iraq & Afghanistan wars by the left/libs- any strategy like this will blow up in obama’s face...i hope he goes for it...

[af_vet_rr]

The American people rally around their President during war time and reelect him.

Democrats riding in on Obama’s coat tails take control of both Houses of Congress.

I thought it might be Syria, but it looks like Obama wants a war with Iran to win the election. He gets bonus points for pretending to support Israel by attacking Iran for them.

And he's got plenty of people in both parties who want him to get us in another war.

[af_vet_rr]

For that to work, Obama will have to convince NATO to start the war, cause he doesn’t have the nads to take responsibility for such action himself...

England, France, and some of the other European countries want Iran's nuclear program knocked out. He'll get the support he wants.

I can't say I blame England and France too much for wanting war to take out Iran's nuclear program, since they are within range of existing Iranian missiles, but England and France seem to be wanting a bunch of quick wars lately, and Iran will not be quick or easy.

We go to war with Iran, it won't be like Iraq in 2003.

[Ted Grant]

There really hasn’t been any break that has generated goodwill for Obama that he hasn’t squandered quickly.

[Sarajevo]

The American people rally around their President during war time and reelect him.

You must be kidding. IMO- the people would rally around the zipperhead long enough to castrate him for involving us in another poorly thought out debacle.