Posted on 05/29/2012 9:31:42 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The TX-16 is far less Republican than the TX-27 in which Farenthold beat Ortiz; the latter CD had been carried by President Bush in 2004. But if O’Rourke proves to be not only “controversial” but unpopular with moderate and conservative voters, and if his Anglo name (Robert O’Rourke)appears on the ballot without his nickname and fools some Mexican-American voters into thinking that Barbara Carrasco is the only Hispanic on the ballot, this could actually be a race.
Had Texas Republican redistricters drawn two districts with a bit over 50% of their population in El Paso, one going north to take in those 40%-Hispanic areas around Lubbock and Amarillo and the other going east to take in 40%-Hispanic areas around Midland, Odessa and San Angelo, they could have drawn two 60%+ Hispanic districts that would have given President Bush around 60% of the vote in 2004. That would have allowed the GOP to elect two Hispanic Republicans to Congress from West Texas. Alas, that would have taken ingenuity and risk-taking, two things that Texas Republican redistricters seem to be lacking. It is ridiculous to draw these 80%-Hispanic districts that will cast half as many votes as the next-door 30%-Hispanic districts. Besides, has Republicans drawn more Hispanic-majority districts, they wouldn’t have the courts carving up their maps.
The only two GOP-held CDs in TX that I think the Dems have a shot at picking up are Quico Canseco’s TX-23 (which was made a bit more Republican, but not much) and the TX-14 that Ron Paul vacated and where Lampson is running. It now includes Jefferson County (Beaumont) and the GOP vote is like 10% lower than the old TX-14; it’s more akin to the CD that Lampson represented from 1997-2005 than to any of the districts represented by Ron Paul. The GOP should be favored, but it’s by no means a slam dunk, and Lampson is probably the strongest possible candidate the Dems could have run. Hopefully we’ll beat Lampson and get rid of him once and for all, but a Lampson victory isn’t out of the question.
(BTW, had black parts of Jefferson County been added to one of the two black-plurality CDs in the Houston area, the Dems wouldn’t even be contesting any of the white Anglo CDs in the region. GOP redistricters also could have drawn two GOP-leaning 60%-Hispanic CDs in the Houston area, but they decided to stick with a 70%-Hispanic CD for Gene Green and with heavy Hispanic populations in the two black-plurality districts. Missed opportunities abound in TX redistricting.)
You think? It’s still pretty good, 57-42 McCain in the 2008 election. That’s only slightly worse than the old Delay seat where Lampson got 45% in 2008 against Pete Olson while Osama got 41%.
I figure Glove will beat Osama there by about 60-40. Lampson will need quite a bit of crossover votes.
A second comeback by him is entirely unacceptable to my disposition. If were a Texas mapper I’d draw a district just for him at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
Do we want Harris or Weber here? Harris clearly appears stronger but I don’t know if Weber is more conservative or not.
BTW, did Paul run one of his followers in the primary?
Excuse me I got Weber and Harris mixed up.
Randy Weber is the frontrunning State Rep who looks more likley to avoid an upset at the hands of Lampson and Felicia Harris is the other one.
Due to his nickname, the fact that he was a city councilman in overwhelmingly Mexican-American El Paso and the fact that he was running in the Dem primary in a 78% (or so) Hispanic congressional district (whose Dem primary electorate is probably over 75% Hispanic), I had assumed that Robert “Beto” O’Rourke was Hispanic despite his Anglo name. But apparently he’s Irish-American on both sides. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke#section_4
This could give Republican Barbara Carrasco a small opening in the general election in a district with a heavy Dem lean but that gave George W. Bush around 50% in his 1998 gubernatorial reelection and like 43% in his 2004 presidential reelection. She’ll be the only Hispanic on the ballot, and could steal some Democrat votes. Plus, Hispanic Democrat politicians in El Paso who wish to get elected to Congress some day know that if O’Rourke gets elected he’ll be very difficult to dislodge, but Carrasco could be defeated in 2014 by a united Democrat front.
I do think that Republicans have a small opening here, and it’s not only the ethnic composition of the candidates. O’Rourke won a very nasty primary and I don’t think that Reyes has endorsed him. Also, O’Rourke has plenty of personal baggage.
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