Posted on 08/02/2012 8:04:00 PM PDT by lasereye
A savvy friend, a Romney supporter who has an excellent track record of reading election trends, emails:
I worry that some of our friends are reassuring themselves by challenging the merits of yesterdays Quinnipiac swing state polls and others, focusing on the partisan split in the samples and other explanations. But are almost all the swing state pollsters making mistakesand in the same direction? Here's what I think is happening.
The national numbers aren't changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media. Yesterdays Connecticut poll has Obama by only 8 for example. And red states seem to be getting even redder. This is happening because the daily news is about the economy, Washington problems, etc. and that is the main message getting through. So, polls in these states reflect how voters who only see national news and national advertising (to the degree there is any) respond.
But.
In the swing states they are being assailed with ads and campaigning, as well as the news. And here Obama seems to be building a bit of a margin. He now is ahead by solid margins in the most recent surveys in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It's very close in Colorado, and Romney has a slight lead in North Carolina.
Team Romney needs to consider this possibility. I don't think it will be enough for them merely to continue the passive approach they are taking. Romney needs to stand for some things the voters want.
This inability of Romney to deploy much cash till after the convention stinks. After that he'll open up with both barrels.
>> After [the convention] he’ll open up with both barrels.
Well, let’s HOPE he will. Certainly every indication is he’s a tougher campaigner than McCain ever dreamed of being.
Also, many people don’t really pay attention until after Labor Day. He’ll have plenty of money to get the message out when it counts the most, whereas Barky will be somewhat depleted by then.
Finally — whether or not Kristol downplays it — the ‘rat pushpolls’ fundamentals DO stink to high heaven.
I’m not real knowledgeable on polls. I’m under the impression Quinnipiac is fairly respected but I don’t see how some of the party identification numbers could be accurate.
Maybe he doesn't want to give the fascists on the left any fodder before the debates. Lord knows he has a truck load of ammo to use against Oboma. I mean, c'mon. A pencil eraser should be able to beat Oboma because of his dismal leadership.
Why feed the MSM monsters early and let them spin the message? Why not wait for the debates where all those who are watching will hear what he really has to say in his own words?
>> I dont see how some of the party identification numbers could be accurate.
Right.
Also, lots of polling of “adults” or “registered voters”, not “likely voters”. The enthusiasm gap between (R) and (D) voters is going to be *very* important this year, in my opinion.
Kristol is not a very incisive pundit. How’s that Arab Spring working now? These polling models are a joke. The best thing is to look at is trends among independents, providing that independents have been correctly identified. The D/R ratio is totally bogus. Why do these pundits exhibit such shallow, uncritical analytical skills?
By the time of the debates most people have already made up their minds. You can’t pin everything on the debates. Plus while I think Obama’s alleged debating skills are over rated, he does lie well.
So we are supposed to take polls with wildly flawed samples seriously. Kristol is as worthless as ever.
Kristol is a knucklehead neocon.
Take a look here: http://www.isidewith.com/blog/38320972-swing-states-and-gun-control
Obama’s in big trouble in these swing states on guns. Romney will use this to his advantage.
These are likely voter polls.
Actually Rasmussen shows gains for Obama in the swing states also. It’s not just this poll. Rasmussen showed Romney with the electoral edge in June and now shows Obama ahead enough to carry the election.
So I think it’s pretty clear Obama has been making some gains in swing states. There is some cause for concern.
>> These are likely voter polls.
Quinnapiac’s may indeed have been; I didn’t see the details of that one.
I’m thinking of that outrageous Pew poll that oversampled Democrats by something like 17% and showed O up in the swing states. It was *not* likely voters.
who cares what the polls are saying at the time. i have seen polls for many years and they are only accurate on the last day of the election to save the poller’s behinds.
just tell everyone you know that the sissy obama will lose in a landslide and there is no reason for the libtards to vote.
on election day instead of voting they should lick their wounds by smoking weed and wonder why hope and change didn’t work because it was all smoke and chains.
blessings, bobo
who cares what the polls are saying at the time. i have seen polls for many years and they are only accurate on the last day of the election to save the poller’s behinds.
just tell everyone you know that the sissy obama will lose in a landslide and there is no reason for the libtards to vote.
on election day instead of voting they should lick their wounds by smoking weed and wonder why hope and change didn’t work because it was all smoke and chains.
blessings, bobo
It always leans left. Maybe it's the way they tilt their questions.
Rasmussen is the best. I trust them the most. They don't play games.
Personally, it's the only poll I pay attention to. I automatically ignore all the rest. There's too much money being moved around and push polling going on.
I don't know how true this is, but I have heard it.
-PJ
actually probably a good thing.
most americans are lazy and don’t involve themselves in politics until fall when the elections are closer.
the sissy will probably have most of his money spent by then, judging from the way he runs the country.
the sissy probably didn’t make much money by trying to heist the public’s wedding gifts.
maybe his grassroots can go out and panhandle in the street?
opps, they already do that. wonder if they would share half their take every day to support the obamanation?
let’s see, would i give up a quart of beer and a pack of smokes to the sissy, nah, don’t think they would.
Blessings, bobo
>> Getting mean and dirty would put Romney at odds with his faith.
Didn’t seem to faze him in the primaries. ;-)
They show Obama ahead in electoral votes with enough to win even as they continue to show Romney leading nationally. In June they showed Romney leading in electoral votes.
-PJ
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