Skip to comments.Does Romney Camp Have an October Surprise? (Vanity)
Posted on 08/09/2012 5:17:18 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
The Obama campaign has spent millions of dollars on ads trying to destroy Mitt Romney; the latest being the "Romney Killed My Wife" ad. The "Tax Return thing" with Harry Reid, even using the Senate floor and his office for political purposes, is another of the latest. Through all of this, the Romney camp has been somewhat impotent in responding. The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now. Negativity does work. Which begs to question....
Could the Romney camp have an October Surprise, or even an earlier "surpise", that will be extremely damaging to Obama's reelection chances? Romney proved in the Primary Season that he can be destructivley tough. Why the laid-back attitude now? Romney is no dummy. I've just got a sneaky hunch that after the Convention, the Romney camp will release something that will be damning to Obama but for now, they're just sitting back grinning and thinking: "Just you wait Barack Obama; just you wait."
“The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now. Negativity does work. “
It hasn’t moved any poll numbers.
Obama has blown tens of millions on these ads.
Both Obama and Reid look worse in the public’s eye.
The MSM is actually calling them out on it.
Romney hasn’t had to spend a dime debunking any of them and is still on-message.
It hasn’t worked.
Ya, McCain all over again... :(
Since when has there been an “October Surprise”?
Election after election, I hear breathless cries of “it’s coming!” and it doesn’t.
The whole concept is doomed and it will do nothing but put Obama back in office.
You are under the misconception that Romney and his staff are competent, and are capable of pulling off an October surprise.
Please don’t try to get me excited about a pro-abortion, anti 2nd amendment RINO. It won’t work.
I agree they are holding out for the convention and post convention, and likely have an effective plan to knock Obama out for good. I do not agree with the above sentence. While they have not handled all these attacks perfectly (See the ridiculous statement from Andrea Saul yesterday for a perfect example), Obama is not winning anything. He is mired below 45%, which seems to be a position they cannot get out of, no matter how much money they spend this summer. Seeing a campaign spend as they have this summer is highly unusual, and they have done little to nothing to bolster their candidate's position. They have hit Romney hard, but if it was having any real impact, you can be damn sure the Romney campaign would do something larger to counter it. Instead, Romney has been investing the time hitting the swing states and focusing on strengthening his position as the much better option to get the economy going. He remains well ahead in that metric, which is what people are voting on. They have enough money in the bank, as do the PACs, that if Romney was in bad shape, they'd start spending some cash.
Reading between the lines your comments say that you see that Romney is getting crushed by Obama. That seems to be the case, at least a whipping.
Well dream on about Romney’s secret plan to win.
Maybe Romney will suggest we replace Obama-care with Romney-care, that should pull in lots of votes.
Romney is running his campaingn like Mccain did. Where is the fight?
Although I think that was a "November" surprise.
I was suprised last night by CBS news actually leaning Romney in a report on the "Workfare" issue. They actually gave Romney's side the last word and rebuttal along with Gingrich's rebuke to Clinton. It is 1 in 1000 reports but made me feel a little better about watching CBS news. My wife is a liberal and I let her watch the MSM news but I get to choose which one. I chose CBS because even though night after night they lean Dem (except last night) at least they have covered Fast and Furious.
It has moved the poll numbers in the states where Obama is running ads in heavy rotation. Everyone still despises Obama because he's an incompetent, anti-American thug, but those watching the ads are being convinced that Romney is just as bad. Obama is getting something for his money.
Obama is also finding that he cannot bring his own positives up. They have reframed their positions several times so that the stupid little people (as they see us) will understand how wonderful it is for the elites to run our lives, but we're not buying it. I expect another new theme soon, but it won't help. Obama's best strategy is to disgust both sides so much that those who despise communism stay home. Then ACORN and SEIU can bring in their fictional and dead voters to carry the swing states for Obama.
1000%....first it was Bain, then the tax returns then he was a felon then no paying taxes then he was responsible for killing the guys wife now he’s going to set “womens health issues” back to 1950’s but nothing but a but of one sided polls to keep obama in it....
gotta love how the rats have gone from pro-abortion to pro-choice to womens health issues...
my biggest fear is Romney fights this tepid fight rather than turning it up a few nothces...people are ready for mullah obama to be hammered...
No fun watching rope-a-dope. Especially if its pointless. And Romney’s campaign advisor kind of hinted at pointlessness when she responded to the Joe Soptic ad by touting Romneycare.
Romney only uses such tactics when running against conservatives.
The last “October Surprise” actually came in early November 2000..... George W. Bush’s DUI came out the weekend before the Election on Tuesday.
Sadly I agree.
Romney is looking limp.
We need a fighting conservative, not an aisle crossing, nice guy who doesn’t want to get his hair mussed up.
No, they’re are just as impotent as the rest of the limp-diks who run the Republican party. If they set things straight, it might lose a few of the idiots who STILL don’t know who’s side they’re on.
Romney needs to have an October Surprise for each day of the month and for the first few days of Novemeber.
This may be due to the media deciding what the poll numbers should be and then adjusting the sample space (oversampling of DemonRats) to produce the desired outcome - not too high, not too low.
Maybe that Michelle hating Whitey video will come out........ Remember that one from 2004?
PREDICTION: This time it will be a desperate Obama who will create an October surprise so bad the government may have to suppress the citizenry using homeland security forces and their hollow point bullets on us.
The BIG surprise is that Romney is following election law which prohibits him from using the monies collected until he actually IS nominated.
After that, it will be most interesting to see what unfolds.
“my biggest fear is Romney fights this tepid fight rather than turning it up a few nothces...people are ready for mullah obama to be hammered...”
But the thing is that running them now, at the beginning of August, isn’t going to do beans when it comes to the post-convention period of Sept and October.
People want Romney to blitz Obama right now. Ok, then what do people do after he did that? Come to FR and cheer? When the public isn’t really paying attention and there is then weeks for your opponent to run counter ads?
Romney doesn’t even have a VP and the conventions haven’t taken place. Let Obama waste his ad money now on spots that get discredited in 6 hours if that’s what he wants.
Do you not remember GWB's 30 year old DWI?
The October Surprise will be coming from Obama. He will propose forgiveness of student loans, and cramdowns on mortgages to the present value of the home. And a few high profile Wall Street bankers will be charged with High Crimes and Misdemeanors.
Unless Mitt has the actual BC or Barry’s college transcripts I don’t see what he could have to counter that.
The race will be decided based on campaigning and advertising in the final two months, when voters finally start listening. The race will be decided based on the differences between our "likely voter" models and reality. The race will be decided based on economic performance in August and September. Mostly, the race will be decided based on the degree to which we can get every living conservative to the polls on election day, and the degree to which ACORN and SEIU can get every dead liberal to cast a ballot despite not having a pulse. We need to make this the highest turnout election ever, to make sure that we expand our margin in the House, take the Senate (likely but not assured), and have the mandate to force Romney to govern like candidate Romney, not like Governor Romney and the man he has been all his life.
Lame. Revealing a DUI from 25 years earlier? Hardly an “October Surprise” (or even November Surprise).
When I think “October Surprise” I’m thinking show-stopper, drop-out-of-race-now kind of revelations.
I don’t think there’s a big “surprise” waiting. I think Romney’s just letting Obama spend time, energy, and money flailing around looking for some kind of attack that will “stick”, while Romney builds up the war chest.
If a particular attack line starts to stick, he’ll let loose the dogs to counter it, but I think he’s saving his own onslaught for after Labor Day, building up to November.
I don’t like Romney, at all, but I can’t deny he’s quite good at running a disciplined campaign.
I am not a big Romney fan but I do not see why everyone is so concerned. Romney’s team has proven that they will do whatever is necessary to win. Remember Florida and the way Newt was smeared? He has been running for President too long to let this slip away, and I see the Obama attacks as desperation on his part. What more can he say about Mitt? He’s already been linked to killing someone’s wife, felonious tax returns and Wall Street. Short of saying he is an Alien from the planet Mars, what else can they throw at him?
This election will be decided in October, not in August. Voters will think about where we are as a country under the One and decide we can do better. I still believe Mitt wins big and enough Tea Party congress critters are going to be elected to keep him honest.
See #29. “Youthful indiscretions” don’t work. “International incident” or “major moral breach” might.
IIRC, in 2004 it was the Bush National Guard Officer Evaluation Reports/Dan Rather.
And in 2000, I think it was the Bush DUI arrest record.
Of course, Obama could still be blowing through "primary" cash, which can't be carried forward to the general election, IIRC.
Why the shifting make up of the sample space then? That number is well known at federal, state and local levels.
Unlike McCain, or Bob Dole, who were running "Because it was their turn", Romney wants this job. I think that he will do what it takes to get it.
Outright libel doesn’t work either.
Thing is: by October, voters are pretty much set on their choice. An “October Surprise” need be devastating enough to convince some 10% of would-be supporters to stay home election day. Not-uncommon screwups from decades past inspiring “meh” responses don’t rise to “October Surprise” status.
Two answers. (1) That number isn't as well known as you might think, if you're referring to the dem/rep/ind breakdown of the population; the number changes based on economic conditions and other news and cannot be assumed static. (2) The samples are random, and fluctuations in those numbers should be expected with random samples - part of the reason for the +/- 3% uncertainty bounds normally reported for a poll of 1000 people. Some pollsters adjust for the difference between their sample demographics and the population, but that runs the risk of missing the fact that party identification is actually changing. Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results.
Well there are negative ads and then there are Stupid Negative Ads. Dewhurst tried the Stupid Negative Ads in TX and lost by 13 points to Cruz. Just let Obama keep this stuff up; he will pay.
It was all that was talked about the last 4 or 5 days before the election and it did hurt Bush.
I also understand that a sample of 1000 yields an uncertainty of +/- 3.16% but that does not change the fact that Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results."
Maybe I'm paranoid but I sometimes feel the media attempts to manipulate rather than report.
Maybe the Romney surprise will be that he will endorse 0bama. They have the same policy positions so they might want to form a dual conselship as in Rome.
Oh you are so right, there is no difference between the two. We must realize that Romney too is a globalist that wants to establish a dictatorship under UN control and abolish the Constitution. We know that Romney will rule by EO and disavow his pledges to control the border and repeal 0-care.
OFA, vote for Goode (sarc)
I should have been more precise in my wording. There are pollsters who intentionally slant their results - through wording bias, non-random samples, or other options. There are also honest pollsters. Even these honest pollsters show a rough tie in the swing states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Virginia. And, yes, the media manipulate instead of reporting. As one journalist told me, "by selecting which facts to report or even lying when necessary, I can tell a higher truth through the story." [Okay, two decades later, that's not a literal quote, but it's at least a close paraphrase with the same tone as the original statement.]
The surprised one wil be Willard...
Obama has quite an arsenal on Willard...
There is NOTHING that embarrasses democrats.
How about an October Surprise at the end of September 2008?
Did you overlook Paulson's and Benanke's panic call to George Bush that the financial world was ready to explode in a matter of hours if he didn't immediately give them carte blanche to spend $700 billion dollars as they saw fit with no accountability or reporting required?
And did you miss out on all the ensuing panic and crazy maneuvering by all the major players in the weeks before the election?
Of course, the only one who didn't seem to be in a panic was Obama - almost as if he had insider information on the supposed crisis.
For most Republicans the Party is a political/social club. They grant that the Democrats are the nation's natural rulers and Republicans just want to be part of the oligarchy with their club. The Nomination is the ultimate degree of attainment. The Presidency is just a pain in the ass better left to the Democrats who rare the ordained rulers, the True King as it were.
D@mn herd mentality.
I think the best October surprise is to start playing back all the stupid things obummer and biden have said. That would fill the airwaves until the election.