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Does Romney Camp Have an October Surprise? (Vanity)
August 9, 2012 | pistolpackinpapa

Posted on 08/09/2012 5:17:18 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa

The Obama campaign has spent millions of dollars on ads trying to destroy Mitt Romney; the latest being the "Romney Killed My Wife" ad. The "Tax Return thing" with Harry Reid, even using the Senate floor and his office for political purposes, is another of the latest. Through all of this, the Romney camp has been somewhat impotent in responding. The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now. Negativity does work. Which begs to question....

Could the Romney camp have an October Surprise, or even an earlier "surpise", that will be extremely damaging to Obama's reelection chances? Romney proved in the Primary Season that he can be destructivley tough. Why the laid-back attitude now? Romney is no dummy. I've just got a sneaky hunch that after the Convention, the Romney camp will release something that will be damning to Obama but for now, they're just sitting back grinning and thinking: "Just you wait Barack Obama; just you wait."


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: notnews; octobersurprise; romney; romney2012; vanity
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I could be wrong, but I hope to goodness I'm not.
1 posted on 08/09/2012 5:17:27 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: pistolpackinpapa

“The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now. Negativity does work. “

It hasn’t moved any poll numbers.

Obama has blown tens of millions on these ads.

Both Obama and Reid look worse in the public’s eye.

The MSM is actually calling them out on it.

Romney hasn’t had to spend a dime debunking any of them and is still on-message.

It hasn’t worked.


2 posted on 08/09/2012 5:20:55 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Ya, McCain all over again... :(


3 posted on 08/09/2012 5:21:01 AM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Since when has there been an “October Surprise”?
Election after election, I hear breathless cries of “it’s coming!” and it doesn’t.


4 posted on 08/09/2012 5:23:51 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
The problem as I see it is this guy thinks he can win a general election with nothing but television ads.

The whole concept is doomed and it will do nothing but put Obama back in office.

5 posted on 08/09/2012 5:24:55 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: pistolpackinpapa

You are under the misconception that Romney and his staff are competent, and are capable of pulling off an October surprise.

Please don’t try to get me excited about a pro-abortion, anti 2nd amendment RINO. It won’t work.


6 posted on 08/09/2012 5:27:37 AM PDT by RepRivFarm ("During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell)
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To: pistolpackinpapa
The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now

I agree they are holding out for the convention and post convention, and likely have an effective plan to knock Obama out for good. I do not agree with the above sentence. While they have not handled all these attacks perfectly (See the ridiculous statement from Andrea Saul yesterday for a perfect example), Obama is not winning anything. He is mired below 45%, which seems to be a position they cannot get out of, no matter how much money they spend this summer. Seeing a campaign spend as they have this summer is highly unusual, and they have done little to nothing to bolster their candidate's position. They have hit Romney hard, but if it was having any real impact, you can be damn sure the Romney campaign would do something larger to counter it. Instead, Romney has been investing the time hitting the swing states and focusing on strengthening his position as the much better option to get the economy going. He remains well ahead in that metric, which is what people are voting on. They have enough money in the bank, as do the PACs, that if Romney was in bad shape, they'd start spending some cash.

7 posted on 08/09/2012 5:28:17 AM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: pistolpackinpapa; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; DoughtyOne; Gilbo_3; Impy; stephenjohnbanker; ...

Reading between the lines your comments say that you see that Romney is getting crushed by Obama. That seems to be the case, at least a whipping.

Well dream on about Romney’s secret plan to win.

Maybe Romney will suggest we replace Obama-care with Romney-care, that should pull in lots of votes.


8 posted on 08/09/2012 5:28:25 AM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Romney is running his campaingn like Mccain did. Where is the fight?


9 posted on 08/09/2012 5:28:34 AM PDT by coconut47
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To: ctdonath2
Did you know GW Bush has a drunk driving arrest?

Although I think that was a "November" surprise.

10 posted on 08/09/2012 5:33:45 AM PDT by T. P. Pole
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To: VanDeKoik
The MSM is actually calling them out on it.

I was suprised last night by CBS news actually leaning Romney in a report on the "Workfare" issue. They actually gave Romney's side the last word and rebuttal along with Gingrich's rebuke to Clinton. It is 1 in 1000 reports but made me feel a little better about watching CBS news. My wife is a liberal and I let her watch the MSM news but I get to choose which one. I chose CBS because even though night after night they lean Dem (except last night) at least they have covered Fast and Furious.

11 posted on 08/09/2012 5:35:29 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: VanDeKoik
It hasn’t moved any poll numbers.

It has moved the poll numbers in the states where Obama is running ads in heavy rotation. Everyone still despises Obama because he's an incompetent, anti-American thug, but those watching the ads are being convinced that Romney is just as bad. Obama is getting something for his money.

Obama is also finding that he cannot bring his own positives up. They have reframed their positions several times so that the stupid little people (as they see us) will understand how wonderful it is for the elites to run our lives, but we're not buying it. I expect another new theme soon, but it won't help. Obama's best strategy is to disgust both sides so much that those who despise communism stay home. Then ACORN and SEIU can bring in their fictional and dead voters to carry the swing states for Obama.

12 posted on 08/09/2012 5:36:15 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: VanDeKoik

1000%....first it was Bain, then the tax returns then he was a felon then no paying taxes then he was responsible for killing the guys wife now he’s going to set “womens health issues” back to 1950’s but nothing but a but of one sided polls to keep obama in it....

gotta love how the rats have gone from pro-abortion to pro-choice to womens health issues...

my biggest fear is Romney fights this tepid fight rather than turning it up a few nothces...people are ready for mullah obama to be hammered...


13 posted on 08/09/2012 5:37:33 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: coconut47

Romney is running his campaingn like Mccain did. Where is the fight?

And, what is their to fight about? Romney and Obama dance to the same tune.


If you ask them, they'll both tell you they love America, despite their anti-American viewpoints. Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum.


14 posted on 08/09/2012 5:37:55 AM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: pistolpackinpapa

No fun watching rope-a-dope. Especially if its pointless. And Romney’s campaign advisor kind of hinted at pointlessness when she responded to the Joe Soptic ad by touting Romneycare.


15 posted on 08/09/2012 5:40:39 AM PDT by BillyBonebrake
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Romney only uses such tactics when running against conservatives.


16 posted on 08/09/2012 5:41:41 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (GHWB gave us Souter. W gave us Roberts. Can we risk Jeb in the White House?)
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To: ctdonath2; All

The last “October Surprise” actually came in early November 2000..... George W. Bush’s DUI came out the weekend before the Election on Tuesday.


17 posted on 08/09/2012 5:41:56 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: coconut47

Sadly I agree.

Romney is looking limp.

We need a fighting conservative, not an aisle crossing, nice guy who doesn’t want to get his hair mussed up.


18 posted on 08/09/2012 5:42:15 AM PDT by Wildbill22
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To: pistolpackinpapa

No, they’re are just as impotent as the rest of the limp-diks who run the Republican party. If they set things straight, it might lose a few of the idiots who STILL don’t know who’s side they’re on.


19 posted on 08/09/2012 5:43:01 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Romney needs to have an October Surprise for each day of the month and for the first few days of Novemeber.


20 posted on 08/09/2012 5:44:43 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Pollster1; VanDeKoik
It hasn't’t moved any poll numbers.

This may be due to the media deciding what the poll numbers should be and then adjusting the sample space (oversampling of DemonRats) to produce the desired outcome - not too high, not too low.

21 posted on 08/09/2012 5:44:57 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Maybe that Michelle hating Whitey video will come out........ Remember that one from 2004?


22 posted on 08/09/2012 5:47:33 AM PDT by Sybeck1
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To: ctdonath2
Since when has there been an “October Surprise”? Election after election, I hear breathless cries of “it’s coming!” and it doesn’t.

PREDICTION: This time it will be a desperate Obama who will create an October surprise so bad the government may have to suppress the citizenry using homeland security forces and their hollow point bullets on us.

23 posted on 08/09/2012 5:48:35 AM PDT by Rapscallion (Beware. Obama has no intention to respect the results of the election.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

The BIG surprise is that Romney is following election law which prohibits him from using the monies collected until he actually IS nominated.

After that, it will be most interesting to see what unfolds.


24 posted on 08/09/2012 5:49:39 AM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: God luvs America

“my biggest fear is Romney fights this tepid fight rather than turning it up a few nothces...people are ready for mullah obama to be hammered...”

But the thing is that running them now, at the beginning of August, isn’t going to do beans when it comes to the post-convention period of Sept and October.

People want Romney to blitz Obama right now. Ok, then what do people do after he did that? Come to FR and cheer? When the public isn’t really paying attention and there is then weeks for your opponent to run counter ads?

Romney doesn’t even have a VP and the conventions haven’t taken place. Let Obama waste his ad money now on spots that get discredited in 6 hours if that’s what he wants.


25 posted on 08/09/2012 5:53:40 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: ctdonath2
Apparently, you didn't know one when you saw it.

Do you not remember GWB's 30 year old DWI?

26 posted on 08/09/2012 5:53:52 AM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: ctdonath2

The October Surprise will be coming from Obama. He will propose forgiveness of student loans, and cramdowns on mortgages to the present value of the home. And a few high profile Wall Street bankers will be charged with High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Unless Mitt has the actual BC or Barry’s college transcripts I don’t see what he could have to counter that.


27 posted on 08/09/2012 5:55:34 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Aevery_Freeman
Nope, it's due to the numbers genuinely not moving far in high-quality polling from these swing states. I am not a supporter of national socialism, soviet socialism, or whatever compromise socialism between those two that Obama advocates, so I'm not trying to make Obama look inevitable. Four more years under that anti-American racist would be worse than another civil war, but the fact is that under current likely voter models and based on honest and representative voter samples, Obama is holding roughly even in the key swing states that will decide whether our country survives.

The race will be decided based on campaigning and advertising in the final two months, when voters finally start listening. The race will be decided based on the differences between our "likely voter" models and reality. The race will be decided based on economic performance in August and September. Mostly, the race will be decided based on the degree to which we can get every living conservative to the polls on election day, and the degree to which ACORN and SEIU can get every dead liberal to cast a ballot despite not having a pulse. We need to make this the highest turnout election ever, to make sure that we expand our margin in the House, take the Senate (likely but not assured), and have the mandate to force Romney to govern like candidate Romney, not like Governor Romney and the man he has been all his life.

28 posted on 08/09/2012 5:57:31 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: pistolpackinpapa; T. P. Pole

Lame. Revealing a DUI from 25 years earlier? Hardly an “October Surprise” (or even November Surprise).

When I think “October Surprise” I’m thinking show-stopper, drop-out-of-race-now kind of revelations.


29 posted on 08/09/2012 5:59:27 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

I don’t think there’s a big “surprise” waiting. I think Romney’s just letting Obama spend time, energy, and money flailing around looking for some kind of attack that will “stick”, while Romney builds up the war chest.

If a particular attack line starts to stick, he’ll let loose the dogs to counter it, but I think he’s saving his own onslaught for after Labor Day, building up to November.

I don’t like Romney, at all, but I can’t deny he’s quite good at running a disciplined campaign.


30 posted on 08/09/2012 6:04:09 AM PDT by kevkrom (Those in a rush to trample the Constitution seem to forget that it is the source of their authority.)
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To: bill1952

I am not a big Romney fan but I do not see why everyone is so concerned. Romney’s team has proven that they will do whatever is necessary to win. Remember Florida and the way Newt was smeared? He has been running for President too long to let this slip away, and I see the Obama attacks as desperation on his part. What more can he say about Mitt? He’s already been linked to killing someone’s wife, felonious tax returns and Wall Street. Short of saying he is an Alien from the planet Mars, what else can they throw at him?
This election will be decided in October, not in August. Voters will think about where we are as a country under the One and decide we can do better. I still believe Mitt wins big and enough Tea Party congress critters are going to be elected to keep him honest.


31 posted on 08/09/2012 6:04:17 AM PDT by burghguy
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To: lonestar

See #29. “Youthful indiscretions” don’t work. “International incident” or “major moral breach” might.


32 posted on 08/09/2012 6:06:42 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: ctdonath2

IIRC, in 2004 it was the Bush National Guard Officer Evaluation Reports/Dan Rather.

And in 2000, I think it was the Bush DUI arrest record.


33 posted on 08/09/2012 6:09:51 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: ilgipper
Seeing a campaign spend as they have this summer is highly unusual

Of course, Obama could still be blowing through "primary" cash, which can't be carried forward to the general election, IIRC.

34 posted on 08/09/2012 6:12:48 AM PDT by kevkrom (Those in a rush to trample the Constitution seem to forget that it is the source of their authority.)
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To: Pollster1

Why the shifting make up of the sample space then? That number is well known at federal, state and local levels.


35 posted on 08/09/2012 6:13:04 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: ilgipper
I am not a large fan of Romney, but the one thing that I'm sure of is that he wants to be President.

Unlike McCain, or Bob Dole, who were running "Because it was their turn", Romney wants this job. I think that he will do what it takes to get it.

36 posted on 08/09/2012 6:17:12 AM PDT by wbill
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To: lacrew

Outright libel doesn’t work either.

Thing is: by October, voters are pretty much set on their choice. An “October Surprise” need be devastating enough to convince some 10% of would-be supporters to stay home election day. Not-uncommon screwups from decades past inspiring “meh” responses don’t rise to “October Surprise” status.


37 posted on 08/09/2012 6:20:36 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: Aevery_Freeman
Why the shifting make up of the sample space then? That number is well known at federal, state and local levels.

Two answers. (1) That number isn't as well known as you might think, if you're referring to the dem/rep/ind breakdown of the population; the number changes based on economic conditions and other news and cannot be assumed static. (2) The samples are random, and fluctuations in those numbers should be expected with random samples - part of the reason for the +/- 3% uncertainty bounds normally reported for a poll of 1000 people. Some pollsters adjust for the difference between their sample demographics and the population, but that runs the risk of missing the fact that party identification is actually changing. Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results.

38 posted on 08/09/2012 6:21:03 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Well there are negative ads and then there are Stupid Negative Ads. Dewhurst tried the Stupid Negative Ads in TX and lost by 13 points to Cruz. Just let Obama keep this stuff up; he will pay.


39 posted on 08/09/2012 6:23:52 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: ctdonath2
Again, you don't understand the damage the DWI charge hurt GWB.

It was all that was talked about the last 4 or 5 days before the election and it did hurt Bush.

40 posted on 08/09/2012 6:25:10 AM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: Pollster1
The numbers of votes cast is known and "reliable" and a fair indication of likely voters providing a base percentage - any deviation from this percentage involves a supposition. It also eliminates the independent vote just as opening the box eliminated the ambiguity of a live or dead Shrodinger's cat.

I also understand that a sample of 1000 yields an uncertainty of +/- 3.16% but that does not change the fact that Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results."

Maybe I'm paranoid but I sometimes feel the media attempts to manipulate rather than report.

41 posted on 08/09/2012 6:37:22 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: so_real

Maybe the Romney surprise will be that he will endorse 0bama. They have the same policy positions so they might want to form a dual conselship as in Rome.

Oh you are so right, there is no difference between the two. We must realize that Romney too is a globalist that wants to establish a dictatorship under UN control and abolish the Constitution. We know that Romney will rule by EO and disavow his pledges to control the border and repeal 0-care.

OFA, vote for Goode (sarc)


42 posted on 08/09/2012 6:38:22 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
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To: Aevery_Freeman
"Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results."

I should have been more precise in my wording. There are pollsters who intentionally slant their results - through wording bias, non-random samples, or other options. There are also honest pollsters. Even these honest pollsters show a rough tie in the swing states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Virginia. And, yes, the media manipulate instead of reporting. As one journalist told me, "by selecting which facts to report or even lying when necessary, I can tell a higher truth through the story." [Okay, two decades later, that's not a literal quote, but it's at least a close paraphrase with the same tone as the original statement.]

43 posted on 08/09/2012 7:12:52 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

The surprised one wil be Willard...

Obama has quite an arsenal on Willard...


44 posted on 08/09/2012 7:16:14 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana (Why should I vote for Bishop Romney when he hates me because I am a Christian)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

There is NOTHING that embarrasses democrats.


45 posted on 08/09/2012 7:22:10 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode Not Evil: The lesser of 2 evils is still evil!)
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To: ctdonath2
Since when has there been an “October Surprise”? Election after election, I hear breathless cries of “it’s coming!” and it doesn’t.

How about an October Surprise at the end of September 2008?

Did you overlook Paulson's and Benanke's panic call to George Bush that the financial world was ready to explode in a matter of hours if he didn't immediately give them carte blanche to spend $700 billion dollars as they saw fit with no accountability or reporting required?

And did you miss out on all the ensuing panic and crazy maneuvering by all the major players in the weeks before the election?

Of course, the only one who didn't seem to be in a panic was Obama - almost as if he had insider information on the supposed crisis.


46 posted on 08/09/2012 7:27:16 AM PDT by Iron Munro ("Jiggle the Handle for Barry!")
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To: pistolpackinpapa
I kept waiting for Bush I's "October Surprise". I kept waiting for him to unleash all the weapons I knew he had. I kept waiting. It never happened.The truth is he did not want to win. The Nomination had been his goal as a mark of supreme appreciation by Republicans. I believe that is why Reagan took him as VP. Reagan probably judged that Bush would be loudly against him in the election itself because Reagan had deprived him of the all-satisfying Nomination.

For most Republicans the Party is a political/social club. They grant that the Democrats are the nation's natural rulers and Republicans just want to be part of the oligarchy with their club. The Nomination is the ultimate degree of attainment. The Presidency is just a pain in the ass better left to the Democrats who rare the ordained rulers, the True King as it were.

47 posted on 08/09/2012 7:35:45 AM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
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To: Pollster1
And the media uses those polls, intentionally slanted by whatever means, to influence the attitudes and opinions of the electorate and therefore the findings of the legitimate pollsters.

D@mn herd mentality.

48 posted on 08/09/2012 7:46:48 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: grumpygresh

Truth hurts, doesn't it. Romney's pledges amount to mush; everyone knows this. Some folks just have their fingers in their ears and their eyes close about it. Until Romney says RomneyCare was a huge mistake, he is incapable of fixing ObamaCare. Pull the log out of your own eye before going after the sliver in your brother's.


49 posted on 08/09/2012 7:50:19 AM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: pistolpackinpapa

I think the best October surprise is to start playing back all the stupid things obummer and biden have said. That would fill the airwaves until the election.


50 posted on 08/09/2012 8:06:50 AM PDT by pfflier
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