Posted on 09/19/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by LS
PA Ping!
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If Romney is within one point in PA, it makes absolutely no sense that he would be behind 5-7 points in FL, VA, and OH.
Rasmussen and Gallup have both shown Romney improvement over the last week. Let’s see what happens when the purported “shock and awe” hits.
OK, I see what happened. The tweet just quoted the last line, “Romneyis up by one point in OH.”
“The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).
Still, given the splits of this poll (Dem +5) it looks like Zero has a one point-two point lead, at best. Based on 2012 splits, Romney is ahead by one or two.
This is a typical Dem +5 oversample for “normal” OH. But based on 2012, even that might be low.
I'm not convinced Obama will be replaced. I think the mood of the electorate is apathy and complacency.
“See, can’t win with your logic. Even if Romney takes every EV, well, “Obama was that bad.”
“Just plain silly.
Obama IS that bad. Mitt, if he had a message, would be ahead.
It is. The PA supreme court, by a 4-2 decision, kicked it back to the lower court that originally upheld the law asking it to reverse its decision if it finds that voters won't be able to get photo ID in time for the election, or if any will be disenfranchised. The response is required by Oct. 2.
I suspect that voter ID is dead in PA, at least for this election.
Don’t count on our votet ID law...our Supreme Court just sent it back to a lower court...it may not be in effect this election...
“Hopefully we’ll all be wishing you bon apetit ! :-))”
Romney wins PA, I’ll eat filet mincrow (a new recipe I’ll create ... and it’ll be a sick one :-) ) ... buckets of it ... with the biggest smile you could ever imagine on a human’s face (never thought I’d say that about a Romney win :-) ).
Casey loses, I’ll have a side of Mr. Cresote’s vomit bucket (Monty Python’s Meaning of Life reference) with 2 week old rotting crow piled on top ... and I’d proudly wear stinking feathers in my teeth for weeks and weeks thereafter.
Casey is a completely useless Senator unless you’re of the Obama supporter persuasion. That rat fink is running commercials acting like most Harley Davidson riders support him (claims he kept some factory in this area)!!!! Most riders I know loathe him!
However, he’s viewed as a “moderate” in this state ... sickening ... votes with Obama 100% of the time on the big ticket issues yet he’s a “moderate”.
I don’t want to say it is impossible for Romney to win in PA and deflate people’s hopes ... my worthless guestimate based on what I see gives him a roughly 20% chance to improve over McCain’s totals here in Western PA (Allegheny County to be specific). I didn’t think Toomey would win either despite the 2010 tidal wave FWIW. The eastern side of the state is the key though ... and Philadelphia is as corrupt as any “major” city in this country.
In W. PA, Obama signs/bumper stickers aren’t everywhere this time around, but that’s just useless, anecdotal observation. People are generally disappointed by Obama in this area, but they seem to hate Romney as they’re trained to think of him as the evil boss of the company where they are “slaves”.
The union presence in this area runs the show. Adolph Hitler would win if the unions mandate voting for him. Hell, if a union said to vote for a Conservative Republican, they would in droves. Trust me, my dad was like that God rest his soul :-). I actually developed a lot of my political beliefs based on the absolute bullshit I used to read in his Steellabor magazines ... and I was a frigging teenager at the time !!!
Unions have lost a lot of power over the years, but in areas where there is a heavy presence, they’re almost impossible to defeat. That makes 2010 Wisconsin a *very* special story and a state that, I think, will swing in Romney’s direction.
Basically, if you hear of depressed turnout in the eastern side of PA on election night, Romney may very well pull it off ... we’ll see :-).
Sorry for the incoherent rambling ... I just felt like spewing text and trashing Casey/Unions :-) .
“but instead is to try to influence weak-minded and ill-informed voters that everyone else is voting for Obama”
I think it’s more to keep people glued to the news be it print, TV, radio, etc. Who the hell would care if polls showed Obama 55-45 or Romney 60-40 ... they’ll keep it close up until 3 days or so before the election ... that’s when you’ll see the more accurate numbers.
The politicians have internal polls since they need to operate based on truth. Also, you don’t want to broadcast your “intelligence” to you opponent as that’ll help them determine if their “intelligence” is accurate.
Bottom line, as many here on FR say, fight like you’re 20 points behind and use the polls for entertainment purposes only.
This completely matches what I am seeing on the ground in PA.
PA is in play folks if Romney fights for it could definitely be his.
Now I know strategically PA isn’t a state that will likely get precedent unless other ways to win become impossible OR the win is locked up already.
If Romney brings the fight to PA Obama will have to spend a crapload to defend it and if Obama holds it it will only be by the slimmest of margins.
The public polling for this state is crap, I don’t know if this poll is accurate but any poll showing Obama up more than a few points statewide in PA is nonsense. 3-4 points max, and frankly I don’t thinks it’s that much.
One thing I’ve learned about Fox is that they have no discretion at all when it comes to choosing polling orgs. They just want a poll for their anchors to chew over 8 times during the day and it doesn’t matter if it has Obama up 8 or Romney up 8, as long as it’s new and they can ask guests if it means a sea change or whatever.
I’m not one of the Freepers who thinks Fox has become a liberal channel, but the only stuff I still watch is Special Report, The Five and Stossel specials.
Ramirez hits another one out of the park.
Perhaps, but people were saying the same thing about Wisconsin and we KNEW there were people from out of state being bussed in to vote illegally. But Walker won by a big enough margin that cheating didn’t matter. If Romney can do that in PA, no problem. But if PA goes from losing by 10% to losing by a tiny percentage, that almost certainly means that the other big swing states have flipped, and that means President Romney with the PA irregularities being a footnote in history.
IIRC, there’s a popular vote percentage margin that, if a candidate crosses it, guarantees an electoral college win. I think it’s 2%.
Aw jeez...not a good thing to do this far out.
What was the 2010 split? 48/42 seems reasonable, except the 10 indie is not. So, if we take 5% from each, is 43-38-20 close to the 2010 turnout?
If Romney carries Pennsylvania, I will go to bed early on election night. However, this state has always disappointed the GOP in national elections. There is no sound reason for Romney/Ryan to spend much money in the Keystone State.
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