Susquehanna Poll (PA): Obama 48%, Romney 47% (!!)

Susquehanna Polling ^ | 9/18/2012

[Revolutionary]

PA is definitely in play due to (I believe) a swing in the Southwest coal area, the burbs and voter ID (maybe just enough of a scare).

[Signalman]

Oh yeah! If this is correct, Obie is in serious jeopardy.

[RoseofTexas]

With God being our ONLY Source, I pray you guys there in PA are correct...the saying goes,...FROM your LIPS to GOD’s ears! In the name of Jesus I pray it comes to pass!

[Despot of the Delta]

This just adds more baggage to the Obama suitcase

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201209180831APONLINEFIN_BUS__US_Alpha_Layoffs-1&params=timestamp||09/18/2012%208:31%20AM%20ET||headline||Alpha%20closing%208%20mines%2C%20cutting%201%2C200%20jobs%20in%20all||docSource||AP%20Online||provider||ACQUIREMEDIA||bridgesymbol||US;ANR&ticker=ANR

[prisoner6]

Yup. Have seen a bunch of BO lawn signs and bumper stix. NOT ONE ROMNEY!

[1035rep]

Okie dokie.

[JediJones]

Pennsylvania came fairly close to tipping the Republican way in 2004. We sure went heavily for Clinton and Obama though. I guess we need 5.2% of the electorate to change their vote from D to R to flip it this time. It sounds easier than it probably is. I wonder if having Christie next door in NJ helps soften up the heavily Democrat eastern side on the Republican brand?

2008 Obama +10.3

2004 Kerry +2.5

2000 Gore +4.2

1996 Clinton +9.2

1992 Clinton +9.1

[MMaschin]

I remember reading an article awhile back about a VERY large number of 'undervotes' in the Democratic primary.

I was able to find the article. http://www.theblogmocracy.com/2012/06/19/undervote-in-pennsylvania-spells-serious-trouble-for-nobama/

This may indicate that Obama may have a BIG problem in PA.

I don't know if many of you have been following TheUlstermanReport's "White House Insider" interviews, but not too long ago, he mentioned an insider poll that was done, and then redone, that showed Romney winning a state that was thought to non-competitive, and ever since then the Insider has been very confident about Romneys chances.

I thought that the state he was talking about was Wisconsin - could it have been PA???

[NoobRep]

President Pinocchio can’t even get above 50% in Oregon and according to Ras is losing NH by 3 points-that was a state he won by 10 in 2008. Would really like to see the internals for this poll.

[MMaschin]

The reason is that Obama's lead nationally in 2008 was around 7.6%, but in PA he won by 10.3%.

So, they are thinking that since he won PA by almost 3% more than the national average, then Romney would need to beat Obama by more than 3% nationally to be competitive in PA. And since they are thinking this is looking like a very close election nationally, they are discounting the possibility of Romney winning PA.

I think this is bunk, andRomney IS beating Obama well enough to win PA!

[RckyRaCoCo]

This is the first election in which we have voter ID in PA

I thought that was still muddling along in the courts?

[Senator_Blutarski]

This election is all about turnout. Our Republic is at stake.

[ConservativeInPA]

PA is really no different than any other state. It all boils down to city, suburban and rural votes. It just happens to be that PA has too many cities and an almost equal population of suburban/rural voters. This is why PA is a disappointment. If we could give Philadelphia to New Jersey or Delaware, PA would be a red state.

The suburbs and rural areas of PA offset city votes, with the exception of Philadelphia. Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties surround Philadelphia. In 2008 those counties did not offset Philadelphia. Take any other city in PA; Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, York, Erie, Scranton, Allentown, State College, etc., and the surrounding suburban/rural areas offset the “hood” vote. If Romney camps out in three counties in PA he will have another 18 electoral votes.

I am hopeful that the Rats will stay home on election day and suburban “security moms” stop feeling and vote for their children's future.

[Psalm 73]

Since Monday I have heard from 3 different people (all die-hard Obama voters) turning to Romney - one is a black woman from England (loved O - now sees him as a fake) - 2nd is a black woman at the office (black-victim type - now blames O for the dismal economy) - 3rd is an older white woman (Konnecticut Libtard-type) just-plain fed-up with everything about O.

[PermaRag]

PA voters will not be required to show ID to vote in November.

That's not official yet of course, but just yesterday the REPUBLICANS on the state supreme court practically ordered the lower-conrt judge to reverse his ruling upholding the voter ID law.

Even if the judge stands his ground and refuses to cave to the GOP-e, one of two things will happen on election day:

1. An 'emergency' injunction will prohibit polling places from requiring ID to vote.

2. Polling places simply will ignore the law, especially in ghetto precincts.

If it turns out to be #2, don't think for a minute that Republican poll watchers (more useless than tits on a bull) will complain much, and if they do no action will be taken anyway.

[HapaxLegamenon]

If Obama is up by half a point on the election night they will call it for him within a minute of the polls closing.

If Romney is leading by 10 they won't call it until after California.

[linn37]

RCP polls are crap.

[Tamzee]

Yup. Have seen a bunch of BO lawn signs and bumper stix. NOT ONE ROMNEY!

The GOP couldn't produce Romney/Ryan campaign material until after the convention when they accepted the nominations. Those are all getting produced now and PA is scheduled to start receiving materials this week.

I volunteer at our local office and it has been a constant flood of people coming in begging for signs and bumper stickers.

.

[Sooth2222]

"I wonder if having Christie next door in NJ helps soften up the heavily Democrat eastern side on the Republican brand?"

I doubt it. I'd like to think so, but I doubt it. And your numbers convince me even more that it's a lost cause.

As I was telling my wife last night, the only reason we have a Republican governor is that the state has odd year elections, and the DNC won't spend the money to drag their core constituents out to the polls. If we had even-year elections, we'd be Massachusetts with Springsteen and Snooki.

I'm somewhat puzzled by Romney's ad strategy. I haven't seen an ad -- but while he isn't going to carry the state, he must raise an awful lot of money here and in NYC. How much air time can you possibly buy in Iowa? I'm just clueless as to what he's doing.

Since he owns a Harvard law degree and a Harvard MBA, I have hopes that he knows what he's doing. I just don't. I suppose that's a good thing?

[LS]

No internals yet. The site says coming tomorrow. BTW-—FOX NEWS HAS ROMNEY UP 1 in OH!!!!!

Zero’s house of cards is collapsing. Sen Rand Paul just tweeted that he thinks the election is already over and Romney won.