Susquehanna Poll (PA): Obama 48%, Romney 47% (!!)

Susquehanna Polling ^ | 9/18/2012

[NittanyLion]

2010 was DEM +3 (40-37-23) and 2008 was DEM +7 (44-37-19). So it seems closer to 2008...

[LS]

That be good news.

[NittanyLion]

The only troubling question is that respondents indicated they voted for Obama by a 50-44 margin, when in fact he won the state by 10. So is this poll oversampling Romney voters by 4%, or do those 4% simply not want to admit they voted for Obama?

Taking it a step further, suppose that those 4% are not represented but will go for Obama (i.e. the true picture is Obama by 5% in PA). Then consider that VA was 4% more favorable to McCain in 2008 than PA, OH was 6%, FL 9%, NC and IN 10% and the US as a whole was 3% more favorable. You start to get the sense that contrary to the pundits' pronouncements this is indeed a very close election...the current Rasmussen +2 and Gallup 0 results are likely accurate.

[LS]

Sorry, I just don’t think it will be that close. If the pollsters at right, it wii be a repeat of 08 minus NC and IN. If I’m right, Romney will get about 310 EVs.

[NittanyLion]

If I’m right, Romney will get about 310 EVs.

I hope you're right...

[PA Engineer]

I just realized something on the polling split. It seems they have incorporated the voter fraud turnout in their numbers. That explains why they are going crazy over the voter ID. I don’t think voter ID is the entire answer, but it sure as heck is the camel’s nose in the tent.