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Susquehanna Poll (PA): Obama 48%, Romney 47% (!!)
Susquehanna Polling ^ | 9/18/2012

Posted on 09/19/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by LS

The Pa. Republican Party will release an internal poll on Thursday that shows Mitt Romney within 1 point of Barack Obama.

The survey was conducted on Sept. 17. by Susquehanna Polling and Research, a firm commonly used by Pa. Republicans.

According to the average of public polling compiled by Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Romney in Pa. by 8.3 percent, 49 percent to 40.7. Republicans have spent the past week pushing back against signs, including a lack of TV ads, that the state is falling out of play. Last week, Gov. Tom Corbett and Sen. Pat Toomey each insisted that internal polls are more telling than public ones.

We’ll bring you more details on the poll including methodology when they are available tomorrow.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; pa2012; romney
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To: LS

2010 was DEM +3 (40-37-23) and 2008 was DEM +7 (44-37-19). So it seems closer to 2008...


81 posted on 09/20/2012 1:54:03 PM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

That be good news.


82 posted on 09/20/2012 1:56:21 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
The only troubling question is that respondents indicated they voted for Obama by a 50-44 margin, when in fact he won the state by 10. So is this poll oversampling Romney voters by 4%, or do those 4% simply not want to admit they voted for Obama?

Taking it a step further, suppose that those 4% are not represented but will go for Obama (i.e. the true picture is Obama by 5% in PA). Then consider that VA was 4% more favorable to McCain in 2008 than PA, OH was 6%, FL 9%, NC and IN 10% and the US as a whole was 3% more favorable. You start to get the sense that contrary to the pundits' pronouncements this is indeed a very close election...the current Rasmussen +2 and Gallup 0 results are likely accurate.

83 posted on 09/20/2012 2:11:41 PM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: NittanyLion

Sorry, I just don’t think it will be that close. If the pollsters at right, it wii be a repeat of 08 minus NC and IN. If I’m right, Romney will get about 310 EVs.


84 posted on 09/20/2012 3:16:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
If I’m right, Romney will get about 310 EVs.

I hope you're right...

85 posted on 09/20/2012 5:20:42 PM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: LS

I just realized something on the polling split. It seems they have incorporated the voter fraud turnout in their numbers. That explains why they are going crazy over the voter ID. I don’t think voter ID is the entire answer, but it sure as heck is the camel’s nose in the tent.


86 posted on 09/20/2012 7:18:07 PM PDT by PA Engineer (What if the rabbit hole is endless?)
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