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FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama
The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight Blog
| October 27, 2012
| nwrep
Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
click here to read article
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To: nwrep
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls.
LOL! And the only thing going for Angelina Jolie are her good looks too.
This narrative is turning into a joke.
All Romney has are 4-5 point leads in the two most respected national polls. And all he has is the historical fact that no candidate has ever garnered 50% of the national vote and lost. Nor has any candidate ever beaten his opponent by more than 1% in the national vote and lost.
Other than that, Romney is in big trouble.
21
posted on
10/27/2012 3:55:01 PM PDT
by
nhwingut
(Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
To: nwrep
OH polls from Friday ranged from Romney +21 with indies to Obama +9. Rasmussen has it almost even I believe ? The question is whether indies are moving to Obama or not ? Are they making an effort to report as independents in the polls? If they are trending to O the only thing I can think of is the Mourdock and Akin comments being heavily exploited by the O campaign and having an effect. Hope I’m wrong.
To: tatown
Look around, at this point anything is possible. How many of these polls over sample the insane by 6 to 9 points.
23
posted on
10/27/2012 3:55:55 PM PDT
by
foundedonpurpose
(It's time for a fundamental restoration, of our country's principles!)
To: Catsrus
How
gutless must a person be to not go to a polling place to vote ?
Opting instead to betray their 'principles' with an absentee ballot, as though no one will know that way !
Entirely consistent with the typical lack of integrity of the traitorous left.
24
posted on
10/27/2012 3:56:46 PM PDT
by
tomkat
To: nwrep
There are some good points that this blog makes... Really? I went through the blog paragraph by paragraph and chart by chart and I could not find any.
What I found was some lefty whistling past the graveyard. Not at a single location did I see the blogger examining the poll internals. He just accepts the various poll results on their face despite the fact that we know that they have serious problems with their methodologies that cast doubts on the overall announced results in many cases.
This is especially true with the Ohio polls which ALL assume totally unrealistic turnout models.
While I agree with the poster's caution against overconfidence, the picture this blogger creates is nothing but wishful thinking on his part.
These links lead to more realistic analyses:
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/2012electorate.cfm
25
posted on
10/27/2012 3:57:50 PM PDT
by
John Valentine
(Deep in the Heart of Texas)
To: nwrep; LS
26
posted on
10/27/2012 3:57:53 PM PDT
by
Hawthorn
To: nwrep
To: nwrep
Friggin Court Jesters....
I have it the other way for R&R
28
posted on
10/27/2012 4:00:02 PM PDT
by
Vendome
(Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
To: nwrep
Adrian Gray:
I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
Read more:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html#ixzz2AXj9cgCl
29
posted on
10/27/2012 4:00:19 PM PDT
by
Zhang Fei
(Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
To: nwrep
Out to dinner last night with a couple who were told by a strong source, the Romney internals are terrific, including Ohio. Sure hope so.
30
posted on
10/27/2012 4:01:17 PM PDT
by
Toespi
To: BlueStateRightist
This Rasmussen update is actually 3 days old: “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.”
To: Bigjimslade
The question is whether indies are moving to Obama or not ?
The Indies are trending to Obama at a rate that Rasmussen shows Romney leading Indies today by 23, and by 15 in the Swing State Tracker.
Only 1, of the last 20, Ohio polls (TIME) showed Obama leading indies (Rasmussen's was essentially a tie).
You have mentioned Akin and Murdock on a couple of threads. Obama has lost Indies since the Murdock story broke (Akin is old news and is actually about caught up to Air Claire). Look at the trends in Rasmussen, ABC/WaPo and Gallup from the beginning of the week. Obama's approval today is 5 points underwater. It was +8 earlier in the week.
32
posted on
10/27/2012 4:01:54 PM PDT
by
nhwingut
(Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
To: nwrep
Unfortunately for the NEW YORK TIMES, there
are sentient Americans in Ohio.
And THEY recognize the undocumented impostor for
the lying Communist vermin that he is.
33
posted on
10/27/2012 4:03:09 PM PDT
by
Diogenesis
(Vi veri veniversum vivus vici)
To: nwrep
Any particular reason why you'd post a thread, soliciting 'comments', and then fail to respond to 30+ posts with even a token reply ?
34
posted on
10/27/2012 4:04:09 PM PDT
by
tomkat
To: Bigjimslade
Where are you seeing a poll that shows Obama up by nine points among independents?
To: nwrep
If Jug Ears wins Ohio, I will not be offended by any insults that others may direct at it.
To: Bigjimslade
Where are you seeing a poll that shows Obama up by nine points among independents?
To: Nervous Tick
I wouldn’t give drinking or strangling liberals such short shrift.
38
posted on
10/27/2012 4:07:37 PM PDT
by
gundog
(Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
To: nwrep
39
posted on
10/27/2012 4:07:52 PM PDT
by
Bobalu
(It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
To: nwrep
Im pretty sure someone is either right or wrong about this
40
posted on
10/27/2012 4:10:39 PM PDT
by
woofie
(It takes three villages and a forest of woodland creatures to raise a child in Obamaville)
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