Vote Romney/Ryan
Wow, this is pretty encouraging. I think i’ll shut er down
now and not read anything else!!
Went to vote today in akron, but line was out the door
with obamma voters,so i left. It was kind of a downer.
Any one in ohio going to the I-X center on Sunday for the
big Rally??
The difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans live in the real world - we face reality, even when it’s harsh. In 2008, we didn’t see these predictions...Republicans knew Obama would win and they didn’t try to hide that fact - they just called it like they saw it.
In 2012, the opposite is happening. Barone and Rove, as well as many other respected pundits are calling it for Romney. Liberals are affirming that Obama will win - but I expect that. No matter how bad it looks, liberals never face reality and will maintain that Obama is winning until about 11pm on November 6th when Mitt and Paul reach 270. Actually they probably won’t admit it even then.
Bottom line: These pundits know their stuff. They aren’t basing it on some fatally flawed monte carlo simulator that I could have built in 10th grade (read: Nate Silver) - they are basing it on years of field experience. I trust them.
In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory.
This doesn’t even make much sense. There is a good reason predictions aren’t left up to political reporters or insular media types. Pollsters are who should be catching these critical segments of Romney’s coalition.
I was guessing 301 to 321 EVs but that is not scientific, just having seen a lot of elections
I agree with him but give Obama NH. 311 EV
accounting for cheating, peg it at 299 EV’s
.....fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong. ......
I think Barone must be getting old to make such a confession and to actually make a prediction. He generally speaks in footnotes. His statements are short with unending foot notes
This is what he should do. Tell us what he knows and leave off the footnotes.
He is at the top of the knowledgeable heap
“Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney.”
First time I’ve heard this, and it makes perfect sense.
Gotta love Barone.
This is good news...almost the same numbers I came up with fooling around with one of the electorial college maps that allow us peons to make guesses.
Poll ping.
Wow, I made my own map last Tuesday on the interactive section of realclearpolitics. My prediction is exactly the same as Barone’s except I don’t think Romney gets Pennsylvania. I had Romney at 295. Great minds think alike.